Speculation: Player Discussion: Will Smith

[LilLeeroy]

I'm all for him making mistakes, and getting more deployment, and I'm definitely not arguing he should be sent down. I am arguing that I don't think putting him with Granlund right now is going to be very helpful because Granlund is on the struggle bus, and Eklund is now out, and if we put him with Celebrini then sure, but I don't think they'll do much more than get some rush chances. Could try Kovalenko-Celebrini-Smith, could try Zetts on LW off-wing I guess... If Kostin's back, could try Kostin-Celebrini-Smith?

I think you're smarter than to argue that Smith has had similar impact to Celebrini at 5v5. All this WITH harder deployment...

• On-ice xGF/60: Mack 2nd to Toff at 4.46, Smith at 10th, 2.61
• On-ice xG%: Mack 2nd to Toff at 59.3%, Smith 14th, 43.2%
• Relative xG%: Mack 2nd to Toff at 26.3%, Smith 14th at -0.6%
• On-ice Shot Attempts For / 60: Mack 2nd to Toff at 71.4, Smith at 8th, 61.1
• On-ice SOG/60: Mack 2nd at 10.22, Smith 8th at 5.99
• On-ice HDSF/60: Mack 2nd at 5.77, Smith 19th at 2.1
• On-ice xGA/60: Mack 10th at 3.06, Smith 16th at 3.44
• On-ice SAA/60: Mack 4th at 54.09, Smith 7th at 57.65
• First metric Smith is better than Mack: On-ice HDSAA/60: Smith 14th at 3.74, Mack 19th at 4.21

I'm seeing different numbers than that for a lot of those stats on Moneypuck. They have Smith's On/Off xGoals per 60 at -0.18 while Celebrini's is at -0.16. And looking at the week to week breakdown Celebrini's was quite a bit lower than Smith's before they acquired Kovalenko.

 

[Zarzh]

Smith's hot streak coincided with two things: 1) playing bad teams, 2) better line combos because we had a better Granlund, Kostin available. Last night losing Eklund also hurt a ton, leaving us with like 1/3 of an NHL top 6 with how Granlund is playing.

It actually coincided with 1) Having another play starter and finisher on his line and 2) Playing a three line scoring system which can create mismatches and miscues. Reverting to two scoring lines is likely part of the reason for Granlund's struggles as well.

Essentially, what we have learned is that rookies need time and space to be successful.

 

[TheBeard]

It actually coincided with 1) Having another play starter and finisher on his line and 2) Playing a three line scoring system which can create mismatches and miscues. Reverting to two scoring lines is likely part of the reason for Granlund's struggles as well.

Essentially, what we have learned is that rookies need time and space to be successful.

Also who he's lined up against. He's got 2 points in 13 games on the road and 9 in 16 at home.

 

[Barrie22]

Here's way too many stats that argue that Smith is not one of our best possession forwards, that his best stat is a decent Corsi%, and that he's also being sheltered with the fewest DZ starts on the team as % of shifts.

On-ice possession metrics from Moneypuck (using the custom graph and the player page sorted to Sharks):

• On-ice xGF vs xGA - Smith is in the "bad" quadrant, just below average xGF and above average xGA.
• But his linemates are dragging him down! Well, relative xG% vs. Relative Corsi%: above average and top 7 in relCorsi%, but bottom 7 in rel xG%.
• 8th on the team in On-ice Corsi @ 51%
• 13th in unblocked shot attempts% (Fenwick) @ 49%
• 7th best at on-ice shot attempts against /60 and 8th best at on-ice shot attempts for /60.
• Fewest DZ starts as % of his total shifts on the team... 8th highest starts on the fly, 8th highest starts in the OZ. So he's being sheltered from the DZ and not really catered to otherwise.

Other relevant F metrics:

• He's in the "finisher/lucky" quadrant for our team - above avg shooting% on unblocked shots, but lower than average expected shooting on unblocked shots (not great chances vs. others)
• 15th in off-ice xG%
• 14th in relative xG%
• 10th in on-ice xGF/60
• 10th worst (16th) in On-ice xGA/60

Here's NaturalStatTrick just to check the work, all #'s vs. rest of Sharks:

• 6th in CF% at 47%
• 9th in FF% at 46%
• 19th in GF%
• 15th in xGF%
• 12th overall in iXG (individual xG created)
• 12th in iCF (individual shots for created)
• 14th in iFF (individual unblocked shots for created)
• 9th in iSCF (individual scoring chances by player)
• 16th in iHDCF (individual high danger shots for created)

What are sat%, usat%, isat%? Is sat "shot attempt%" aka CorsI? Where are you getting these stats? So far the only thing that jives with MoneyPuck or NaturalStatTrick are the 6th in CF%, but that's basically the only stat that kind of, sort of argues what you're trying to argue. Everything else is pretty clearly showing that he's playing at the third line level of play.

Nhl.com are where those stats come from.

 

[coooldude]

Nhl.com are where those stats come from.

Well, the stats I posted don't agree with you. The only thing he's got going for him is a decent CF%.

 

[coooldude]

It actually coincided with 1) Having another play starter and finisher on his line and 2) Playing a three line scoring system which can create mismatches and miscues. Reverting to two scoring lines is likely part of the reason for Granlund's struggles as well.

Essentially, what we have learned is that rookies need time and space to be successful.

You said what I said: better line combos. But you ignored the why, which was in my post: a better Granlund, an available and decent Kostin, and a non injured Eklund.

Warsofsky didn't "decide to revert to a two scoring line system," and anyway Granlund has been playing badly on the Lund line, driving his own line without both other Lunds, etc etc etc.

Rookies need time and space to be successful... But the NHL is not known for giving anyone time and space. I just don't understand why you continue to believe that we're just a line combination away from a huge improvement.

I'm seeing different numbers than that for a lot of those stats on Moneypuck. They have Smith's On/Off xGoals per 60 at -0.18 while Celebrini's is at -0.16. And looking at the week to week breakdown Celebrini's was quite a bit lower than Smith's before they acquired Kovalenko.

Not sure why. I'm going to the player page and sorting by team. At any rate, it's hard to argue that Smith is just as effective as Celebrini. Maybe during his 4 game heater. I sure hope he gets back there.

 

[TheBeard]

You said what I said: better line combos. But you ignored the why, which was in my post: a better Granlund, an available and decent Kostin, and a non injured Eklund.

Warsofsky didn't "decide to revert to a two scoring line system," and anyway Granlund has been playing badly on the Lund line, driving his own line without both other Lunds, etc etc etc.

Rookies need time and space to be successful... But the NHL is not known for giving anyone time and space. I just don't understand why you continue to believe that we're just a line combination away from a huge improvement.


Not sure why. I'm going to the player page and sorting by team. At any rate, it's hard to argue that Smith is just as effective as Celebrini. Maybe during his 4 game heater. I sure hope he gets back there.

Would you trade Smith for Noah Dobson straight-up?

 

[coooldude]

Would you trade Smith for Noah Dobson straight-up?

Maybe, if the Sharks pro scouting department sees him as a 10 year top pairing D? I don't have a strong opinion on that - above my pay grade. Not even sure it would be enough for NYI, or too much.

I just don't think it's time to cut bait on Smith. Tough start, very predictable, but he could take 5 years to hit his stride, who knows (he'll only be 24...) ... If we do a trade like this, it means the front office wants to compete sooner and it means we need a real 2C or a really high end winger in FA because Wennberg is not a cup winning 2C. Maybe a cup winning 3C at his peak.

 

[weastern bias]

We have a perfectly good roster discussion thread for this

 

[Kcoyote3]

Let’s have one thread where everyone believes him to be the next great bust and one thread where everyone believes he’s going to be better than Gretzky. That’ll solve it

 

[Zarzh]

Rookies need time and space to be successful... But the NHL is not known for giving anyone time and space. I just don't understand why you continue to believe that we're just a line combination away from a huge improvement.

Because Warso's lines are dumb and when he used more traditional lines he saw success, which is both a better recipe for future success and development. He hasn't shown the ability to put role players in a position to score or use his depth scorers effectively for most of the season which should be the goal of a development season.

I don't know what's so controversial about saying we should try playing snipers with playmakers, or try to find the grinders 2 skilled forwards they mesh with. It's rare to see a coach get so little out of rookies with offensive talent and role players.

 

[Star Platinum]

Let’s have one thread where everyone believes him to be the next great bust and one thread where everyone believes he’s going to be better than Gretzky. That’ll solve it

Can we have a separate thread for telling people not on our side what morons they are?

 

[OrrNumber4]

I feel like the talk of him being a bust is just silly. You have to think there's an 85%+ chance of him being at least a top-6 forward. At the same time, the argument that Smith could become a generational talent is nearly closed, and the odds that he becomes a franchise player are slightly lower than they were 4 months ago.

 

[coooldude]

Can we have a separate thread for telling people not on our side what morons they are?

Isn't that every thread?

 

[coooldude]

Because Warso's lines are dumb and when he used more traditional lines he saw success, which is both a better recipe for future success and development. He hasn't shown the ability to put role players in a position to score or use his depth scorers effectively for most of the season which should be the goal of a development season.

I don't know what's so controversial about saying we should try playing snipers with playmakers, or try to find the grinders 2 skilled forwards they mesh with. It's rare to see a coach get so little out of rookies with offensive talent and role players.

I mean, we've been through this merry go round argument before. You make sweeping statements that seem self evidently wrong but you are convinced they are right (is Kunin not scoring? Is Wennberg not having a solid year? Did we go away from the best line combos of the year because the coaches are dumb, or perhaps because players got injured and we couldn't keep the same lineup?)

We've seen a ton of line combinations tried, but since they aren't the ones you specifically would try, it means the coaches are dumb and only you have the answer. I just don't buy it. We continue to have a roster problem - not enough top end skill, logjam at the bottom - and I think the coaching staff has pretty clearly shown themselves to be getting the best out of this lineup. Every lineup change you seem to be proposing (and I haven't seen many details) requires us to have a healthy Eklund and Kostin and the best version of Granlund. Happy to hear otherwise.

 

[Zarzh]

I mean, we've been through this merry go round argument before. You make sweeping statements that seem self evidently wrong but you are convinced they are right (is Kunin not scoring? Is Wennberg not having a solid year? Did we go away from the best line combos of the year because the coaches are dumb, or perhaps because players got injured and we couldn't keep the same lineup?)

We've seen a ton of line combinations tried, but since they aren't the ones you specifically would try, it means the coaches are dumb and only you have the answer. I just don't buy it. We continue to have a roster problem - not enough top end skill, logjam at the bottom - and I think the coaching staff has pretty clearly shown themselves to be getting the best out of this lineup. Every lineup change you seem to be proposing (and I haven't seen many details) requires us to have a healthy Eklund and Kostin and the best version of Granlund. Happy to hear otherwise.

Kunin and Wennberg are scoring at around or slightly below their career average for a healthy year in terms of points depending on how you define health and value goals vs assists and that's with Kunin getting extremely lucky.

The coaching staff is dumb for continuously forcing square pegs into round holes and trying to ride the top line too hard every single game. All I want is for them to try the simple, traditional lines.