Speculation: Player Discussion: Will Smith

[Barrie22]

He's 8-8 in faceoffs in his last 3 games compared to 5-21 in his first 3. Granted, he understandably has had his faceoff opportunities reduced after his bad start there, but he has shown improvement. If he can keep working at it and earning back the trust of the coaching staff, I'm sure he will start to see some more PP time. You can't really put a center on the PP that will lose most of his faceoffs.

I know we all want to see the points from him, but I feel like that will come eventually. He has started making some nice plays and setting guys up that just haven't been finished. I feel as long as he keeps improving little by little in the other aspects of his game, that should earn him more consistent ice time. And once that happens, the points will probably come.

To be on the powerplay he doesn't really need to take faceoffs though. Granlund would still be there to take those. And even Eklund could if needed.

 

[coooldude]

Some "basic" advanced stats for Smith so far (Moneypuck):

• On-ice xGF is middle of pack but improving. He had a good game 1 (with Granny), a bad week, and then has picked it up in the past few games and had a great game last game for being on ice while chances were generated (many of them were directly due to him)
• Granlund, Eklund, Goodrow, Toffoli are top of team at On-ice xGF
• On-ice xGA is bad. Smith is 6th worst behind Eklund, Granlund, Toffoli, Zetterlund, and Kostin... however, no /60 here and that would make Smith (but really Kostin) look worse.
• On-ice xGd (differential) is getting a lot better - second chart below. Smith was the worst forward on the ice thru the first few games, but has improved significantly since, and is in a grouping with Zetterlund and Sturm, just below Eklund, Kunin, Granlund, Toffoli, Dellandrea. Best by far is Goodrow, worst by far is Kostin. Arguably... Goodrow has been our best forward.
  
  

 

[CHALUPA]

One of these games, he’s going to have a Will Smith-kind of breakthrough and I think all of a sudden he’s going to look much better. He just, for his own sake, needs to have a couple of goals go in/some of his passes converted.

Wouldn’t any kind of breakthrough be a “Will Smith-kind” of breakthrough?

 

[Skeksis25]

Just needs to score on a slapshot and it will be a Will Smith breakthrough.

 

[timorous me]

Some "basic" advanced stats for Smith so far (Moneypuck):

• On-ice xGF is middle of pack but improving. He had a good game 1 (with Granny), a bad week, and then has picked it up in the past few games and had a great game last game for being on ice while chances were generated (many of them were directly due to him)
• Granlund, Eklund, Goodrow, Toffoli are top of team at On-ice xGF
• On-ice xGA is bad. Smith is 6th worst behind Eklund, Granlund, Toffoli, Zetterlund, and Kostin... however, no /60 here and that would make Smith (but really Kostin) look worse.
• On-ice xGd (differential) is getting a lot better - second chart below. Smith was the worst forward on the ice thru the first few games, but has improved significantly since, and is in a grouping with Zetterlund and Sturm, just below Eklund, Kunin, Granlund, Toffoli, Dellandrea. Best by far is Goodrow, worst by far is Kostin. Arguably... Goodrow has been our best forward.
  View attachment 920876

View attachment 920879

I do think a real challenge for Smith this season has been the way his line has been put in a blender every single night--not ideal for a kid so early in his development process! Obviously the Celebrini injury has caused ripple effects, but it's unfortunate.

I actually kind of liked the line from last game for Smith. Goodrow seems surprisingly to be the guy he's shown the most chemistry with (not necessarily Goodrow as a talent who can help him put up points, but the way he plays and the way he forechecks and the way he can help gain possession), and I feel like Dellandrea has been improving with each and every game and looking like more than a 4th line plug. But maybe someone like Zetterlund on the right of that line could be good, too.

Also, Jesus Christ, Kostin, lol--that line at the bottom is something else on a team that's been as bad as the Sharks have this year. How the hell can you be that much of a negative outlier?!

 

[Hodge]

Arguably... Goodrow has been our best forward.

It's almost like Sharks fans killing Grier for the pickup who hadn't watched Goodrow play in 4 years had no idea what they were talking about. Turns out being a second line forward on back to back championship teams and getting a $22 million contract in free agency from a top contender means you're pretty good!

 

[weastern bias]

It's almost like Sharks fans killing Grier for the pickup who hadn't watched Goodrow play in 4 years had no idea what they were talking about. Turns out being a second line forward on back to back championship teams and getting a $22 million contract in free agency from a top contender means you're pretty good!

Goodrow is good and valuable, but you don't have to skew the facts for that to be true, Goodrow was the 3rd wheel on the 3rd line on those Tampa teams and his NYR contract was bad the second it was signed and he largely played on the 4th line there

I've always liked Goodrow and have always liked the re-aquisition, but he isn't what you're selling here either

 

[Hodge]

Goodrow is good and valuable, but you don't have to skew the facts for that to be true, Goodrow was the 3rd wheel on the 3rd line on those Tampa teams and his NYR contract was bad the second it was signed and he largely played on the 4th line there

I've always liked Goodrow and have always liked the re-aquisition, but he isn't what you're selling here either

He was 5th in forward TOI/game on the 2021 team and 7th on the 2020 team.

If NYR hadn't signed him to that contract some other team would have. Goodrow was a key cog on those Tampa teams.

We should try the Goodrow-Smith-Zetterlund line that opened training camp again.

 

[weastern bias]

He was 5th in forward TOI/game on the 2021 team and 7th on the 2020 team.

If NYR hadn't signed him to that contract some other team would have. Goodrow was a key cog on those Tampa teams.

We should try the Goodrow-Smith-Zetterlund line that opened training camp again.

He was a staple on the penalty kill and their 3rd line was used to close out games with a lead due to their defensive prowess but there is no mistake to be made that Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman was the 3rd line, they were not above the Kucherov line and they were not above the Cirelli line, pointing to TOI to frame Barclay Goodrow as a second liner on that team his disingenuous to the point of being laughable, he was an ELITE bottom-six stopper at his apex

Depth role players on championship teams get bad contracts all the time, it's an ever-present part of the NHL ecosystem, just because the Rangers gave a defensive specialist bottom-6 penalty killer that deal, and if they hadn't someone else would have instead, doesn't mean it wasn't an awful value contract from the start, to argue otherwise is to argue that there are no bad contracts in the NHL because someone out there was willing to sign it

 

[Hodge]

He was a staple on the penalty kill and their 3rd line was used to close out games with a lead due to their defensive prowess but there is no mistake to be made that Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman was the 3rd line, they were not above the Kucherov line and they were not above the Cirelli line, pointing to TOI to frame Barclay Goodrow as a second liner on that team his disingenuous to the point of being laughable, he was an ELITE bottom-six stopper at his apex

Depth role players on championship teams get bad contracts all the time, it's an ever-present part of the NHL ecosystem, just because the Rangers gave a defensive specialist bottom-6 penalty killer that deal, and if they hadn't someone else would have instead, doesn't mean it wasn't an awful value contract from the start, to argue otherwise is to argue that there are no bad contracts in the NHL because someone out there was willing to sign it

Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow was their 2nd most used 5v5 forward line during both runs. Call it whatever you want.

We're not talking about Columbus signing Goodrow to that contract. A legit contender signed him then advanced to 2 ECFs in 3 years.

Last season was really the only bad one of Goodrow's entire career and a lot of that was due to extreme defensive usage with terrible linemates.

 

[weastern bias]

Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow was their 2nd most used 5v5 forward line during both runs. Call it whatever you want.

We're not talking about Columbus signing Goodrow to that contract. A legit contender signed him then advanced to 2 ECFs in 3 years.

Last season was really the only bad one of Goodrow's entire career and a lot of that was due to extreme defensive usage with terrible linemates.

I'll call them what they were, the 3rd line

 

[Pinkfloyd]

It's almost like Sharks fans killing Grier for the pickup who hadn't watched Goodrow play in 4 years had no idea what they were talking about. Turns out being a second line forward on back to back championship teams and getting a $22 million contract in free agency from a top contender means you're pretty good!

Or you're just grasping at straws to justify an unwarranted move. For all that that graphic shows, it's a seven game sample size. A sample that has Goodrow contribute nothing at even strength, one goal in game one on the PK, contributing to our penalty woes, and not improving our penalty kill. It's way too early one way or the other but this Goodrow is still not worth his contract and not worth playing over anyone else we have currently. I'll at least give him slack because he takes the PK shifts but even there he's pretty easily replaceable and not worth the investment.

 

[OrrNumber4]

@weastern bias, I grok with what you are saying, and my impression of Goodrow is that he was a third-liner.

But, if @Hodge's numbers are correct, then he indeed was a 2nd-liner for the 2021 team.

 

[weastern bias]

I watched those Tampa teams closely, I was a huge fan of how they played

The 1st line was Point+Kucherov+3rd wheel

The 2nd line was Cirelli+Killorn+3rd wheel

Palat and Stamkos alternated in that 3rd spot depending on match ups and effectiveness

Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman was an incredible shut down defensive line that could pop in a timely goal here or there but they were decisively the 3rd line on that team

 

[coooldude]

How bout that Will Smith?

 

[Barrie22]

@weastern bias, I grok with what you are saying, and my impression of Goodrow is that he was a third-liner.

But, if @Hodge's numbers are correct, then he indeed was a 2nd-liner for the 2021 team.

2019-20 8 games in the regular season 10:04 ev ice time (15th among forwards)

2019-20 25 games in the playoffs 15:18 ev ice time (6th among forwards).

2020-21 55 games in the regular season 12:38 ev ice time (8th among forwards)

2020-21 18 games in the playoffs 14:59 ev ice time (4th among forwards, more then Kucherov, stamkos).

Numbers from the nhl.com site.

 

[TheBeard]

How bout that Will Smith?

Don’t hijack the thread.

 

[Hodge]

To get slightly back on topic, guess who else has 0 points in 6 games this season? Zach Benson.

 

[Bizz]

How bout that Will Smith?

Best Catcher in the National League. A big part of the Dodgers current World Series run.

 

[Munnyro]

Elite Prospects video.

 

[coooldude]

Elite Prospects video.

Thank God it was David St. Louis, I really respect that guy. A fair assessment of Smith's struggles so far. In contrast I think Cam Robinson at EP is a lot of talk and brand but not much substance to his analysis.

 

[Sharksfan66]

Elite Prospects video.

Love this video. They clearly believe in Smith, so it's not trashing on him at all. But also conclude "the right place for him is the AHL." Their analysis is obviously better than mine but highlights a lot of what I've been seeing. I wonder what Warso & co are seeing.

 

[Friday]

I wanted him to get some AHL time just so he can have the puck. Feel like he hasn't seen much of it at all. Either way its a pretty low pressure NHL situation for him right now

 

[weastern bias]

Elite Prospects video.

I appreciate the detailed analysis, it points out what a lot of people are feeling, he's processing the game too slowly to capitalize on his strengths

It will be interesting to see if the organization stays committed to the idea of keeping him in the NHL for the whole year if he still looks this lost after the 41 game mark, it's a tough act to balance because they don't want to hurt his confidence, and that could happen with a demotion or by sticking at too high a level, it may have to be more of a psychological decision than a practical one, they'll have to show they really know him as a person at that point to make the right call

 

[coooldude]

I appreciate the detailed analysis, it points out what a lot of people are feeling, he's processing the game too slowly to capitalize on his strengths

It will be interesting to see if the organization stays committed to the idea of keeping him in the NHL for the whole year if he still looks this lost after the 41 game mark, it's a tough act to balance because they don't want to hurt his confidence, and that could happen with a demotion or by sticking at too high a level, it may have to be more of a psychological decision than a practical one, they'll have to show they really know him as a person at that point to make the right call

It might come down to: if he asks, they'll send him down. He's definitely lost some confidence, but I think we need to give him 10-20 games on a team with Celebrini on it to evaluate and for him to evaluate.