Post-Game Talk: "Pity Pardy" In Here - Jets lose 5-3

[Puckatron 3000]

You gotta think that Bucky gets a string of starts until he drops the ball.

 

[garret9]

Hutch has had bad spikes, but I think people are jumping too quick here to conclude what he is and isn't. Do not be fooled by randomness.

Goalies are by nature inconsistent:

Usually how low those curves fall has more to do with how long a coach will leave you in the net for in tire-fire games and the depth/trust in a back up.

Currently Hutchinson has 963 5v5 shots and has a 921 save percentage.
Essentially from this we can conclude with 90% confidence he is not replacement level or lower.

He is still very realistically any where between above average starter to average back up. Currently his highest probability sits right smack in the middle, as in below average starter and above average back up.

So a guy you can win with, but has to be on a run or behind a strong team (like Quick or Crawford).


FYI:
Pavelec is 95% confidence not above average starter. He still sits within 95% confidence intervals for replacement level and back up.

 

[Positive]

You gotta think that Bucky gets a string of starts until he drops the ball.

I would think Winter Soldier gets the next start, at least.

 

[Larabee]

You gotta think that Bucky gets a string of starts until he drops the ball.

I'd be surprised if Maurice gave him 2 in a row. I think he's intent on letting Hutch prove or hang himself first, even if it means sacrificing the season.

 

[Gm0ney]

He had a good start... but the last 6 games have been .859.

Oh yeah, but I mean there could still be a decent goalie in there somewhere. For now though, I think the Jets should ride Hellebuyck as far as he'll take us.

 

[garret9]

PS: I'm using a model like this one to estimate where the true talent lies for Pavelec and Hutchinson:

red lines are 95% intervals for "slightly above average starter" or 0.925 5v5 talent
blue lines are 95% intervals for "average back up" or 0.915 5v5 talent
green lines are 95% intervals for "replacement level" or 0.905 5v5 talent

You can see here why we use 3k shot sample as a semi-arbitrary-but-evidence-informed sample for certainty.
It's approximately where you can say with near certainty a replacement level is not above average or vice-versa.

 

[Larabee]

Hutch has had bad spikes, but I think people are jumping too quick here to conclude what he is and isn't. Do not be fooled by randomness.

Goalies are by nature inconsistent:

Usually how low those curves fall has more to do with how long a coach will leave you in the net for in tire-fire games and the depth/trust in a back up.

Currently Hutchinson has 963 5v5 shots and has a 921 save percentage.
Essentially from this we can conclude with 90% confidence he is not replacement level or lower.

He is still very realistically any where between above average starter to average back up. Currently his highest probability sits right smack in the middle, as in below average starter and above average back up.

So a guy you can win with, but has to be on a run or behind a strong team (like Quick or Crawford).


FYI:
Pavelec is 95% confidence not above average starter. He still sits within 95% confidence intervals for replacement level and back up.

Inconsistency is expected, but Pav and Hutch seem to be wildly inconsistent. The highest peaks and lowest vallys look to belong to them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hutch has lost his confidence. He is crap without it. I don't know if he can get it back or not. We don't know if Helle is going to be able to get the job done or not but it is time to find out. Right now I don't think Hutch is fit to back up. Too bad but that's the way it is.

 

[winnipegger]

Should have started Helle like I said

 

[roccerfeller]

Jets can't afford a "bad streak". Hutch just isn't making the saves they need. Landeskog goal was awkward. So was the 4th goal. Hutch loses his stick more than any goalie in the league - hard to stop a deke when your stick is behind your net. He just isn't cutting it right now. Period.

All of this right here.

 

[Jets 31]

Quick thoughts....

Terrible - Pardy, Stuart and Hutch

Good - Almost everyone else

Very good - Burmi

It's hard to imagine, but the Jets are being pulled down by two terrible defensemen now. Pardy was absolutely atrocious again. He killed the Jets' momentum early, and then stomped on it later. (By the way, what on earth is Maurice doing playing Pardy with our 4th line when we get back to a 1 goal game?????). Chiarot needs back in ASAP. I would bring up Morrissey and play him, too. Stuart and Pardy are not trustworthy at the NHL level. Of course, we know that it's Harrison that we'll see. That's just how Maurice rolls.

Won't go into detail about the rest, but a few scattered notes....

Burmi was the Jets' best forward, and it wasn't very close (he was +15 in Corsi on 5v5, in addition to the gorgeous SH assist and another gift to Wheeler that Wheeler muffed).

Little and Ladd didn't look very good against the Avs top line for most of the night.

Trouba was a beast in the second half of the game after they unleashed him from Stuart.

Peluso is ready to take a rest. Another offensive zone penalty is inexcusable.

The Jets PP is an abomination.

The refs were... ummmm... puzzling. The call on Enstrom was laughable.

Hutchinson was comically bad. He was like a fish out of water all night. If the Avs had more scoring chances, he looked like he could let in 10 tonight.

I absolutely agree with you , right now it's amazing how much better the Jets are when they more or less go to 4 D !! I said after the Wild game that Maurice was in a no win situation when it came to what goalie to start for the back to back game , start Helly and lose , what is the idiot Maurice thinking you don't start the same goalie on back to back games , start Hutch and lose , what is Maurice the idiot thinking Hutch is horrible . Me , i wanted Bucky to start just because i have no confidence in Hutch at all right now . We needs at least 1 more LD that is competent and has a little hockey IQ . Right now since Comrie is playing so good in the A maybe send Hutch down and bring Comrie up . I know have 2 rookie goalies playing .... right now the way Hutch is playing , can't do any worse .

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Jets can't afford a "bad streak". Hutch just isn't making the saves they need. Landeskog goal was awkward. So was the 4th goal. Hutch loses his stick more than any goalie in the league - hard to stop a deke when your stick is behind your net. He just isn't cutting it right now. Period.

When you're playing like **** as a goalie, you stop worrying about the puck and start worrying about everything else. Watching Hutch, he's not tracking the puck anymore. He's wildly flapping at clean shots and praying that any shot through any kind of traffic hits him.

The good news is that this is probably as bad as it gets for him. We've seen how good he can be when he's on, and I would still trust him in a backup role.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Quick thoughts....

Terrible - Pardy, Stuart and Hutch

Good - Almost everyone else

Very good - Burmi

It's hard to imagine, but the Jets are being pulled down by two terrible defensemen now. Pardy was absolutely atrocious again. He killed the Jets' momentum early, and then stomped on it later. (By the way, what on earth is Maurice doing playing Pardy with our 4th line when we get back to a 1 goal game?????). Chiarot needs back in ASAP. I would bring up Morrissey and play him, too. Stuart and Pardy are not trustworthy at the NHL level. Of course, we know that it's Harrison that we'll see. That's just how Maurice rolls.

Won't go into detail about the rest, but a few scattered notes....

Burmi was the Jets' best forward, and it wasn't very close (he was +15 in Corsi on 5v5, in addition to the gorgeous SH assist and another gift to Wheeler that Wheeler muffed).

Little and Ladd didn't look very good against the Avs top line for most of the night.

Trouba was a beast in the second half of the game after they unleashed him from Stuart.

Peluso is ready to take a rest. Another offensive zone penalty is inexcusable.

The Jets PP is an abomination.

The refs were... ummmm... puzzling. The call on Enstrom was laughable.

Hutchinson was comically bad. He was like a fish out of water all night. If the Avs had more scoring chances, he looked like he could let in 10 tonight.

Agree with all of this.

The Jets powerplay seems to be especially stunted with their entries. My biggest complaint with their PP in the past was that they were too deliberate and allowed teams to get their defenders set up across the blueline, but now the reverse is happening; they make these wild, headlong rushes into the teeth of the PK and can't get set up.

Watching Stuart up close tonight was almost comical. You see the intensity in his game, but there's zero awareness of his surroundings. His reactions on the penalty kill would be what you'd expect from a decent Midget AAA defenseman. Jets (and any NHL team, for that matter) need to move away from defensemen like Stu.

Burmi was playing his game at a similar speed to MacKinnon, and it was something special to witness. He also did a masterful job at protecting the puck down low. I hope he can build off that performance.

 

[jetsforever]

These losses are getting annoying...
Hutch is now .901 on the season - I trust stats though and according to Garret he should be able to rebound, hopefully sooner rather than later. That being said, if Helle doesn't turn out to be great or ready, I think something needs to be done about our goaltending (as if that would ever happen )
As for the many posts saying that Maurice was wrong to start Hutch, that's not a very sound argument. If he had started Helle and the game had gone how it did, we might be angry since historically goalies are bad back-to-back. It was pretty much a tossup with an edge to starting Hutch IMO, and unfortunately it didn't work out. For goodness' sake, before today Colorado was 28th in the league
Time to move on

 

[KANADA89]

Peluso, Copp, Thorbun.

Last 5 games, 1+2 & -1. All those 3 guys together.

I may be bitter, but I don't think it would've been the worst idea to give Joel Armia a chance...

To be honest, I have no idea what kind of a coach Maurice is, but everything points to the direction, he's stubborn old horse, unwilling to make changes.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Wasn't the 3rd goal clearly too many men on the ice? Wagner comes on the ice & immediately takes possession on a turn over up the boards as MacKinnon is lazily skating toward the gate.

Jets were just called on a similar play less obvious play a few games back.

 

[PhilJets]

Lost against the flyers
Lost against the Avalanche
Another lost against the Avalanche

6 crucial points gone....

Playing wasn't the right or correct decision.
It was the nice decision, as he is the incumbent.

But he hasn't given the Jets solid goaltending performance. Can't remember anymore.

I want to hear great save Essensa, ohhh how did he save that!
We don't hear those when jets goalie plays.

Hope hutch recovers but right now I give the ball to HELLY. 3 out of 4 games went to hutch since Pavelec went down.

 

[GJF]

Where are all the anti-Burmistrovs?!

Oh an Hutch... come on man. That's not good enough if you wanna stay in the NHL.

 

[CaptainChef]

Hutch has lost his confidence. He is crap without it. I don't know if he can get it back or not. We don't know if Helle is going to be able to get the job done or not but it is time to find out. Right now I don't think Hutch is fit to back up. Too bad but that's the way it is.

Totally agree. Hutch is not near as bad as his recent downspike, but he's a goalie that thrives on confidence. Helle needs to have 2/3 of the starts for a spell here -- Mo has to go with the hot goalie unless he has been given orders to tank

 

[SensibleGuy]

If we don't pull off a 4 or 5 game win streak (at minimum) very soon, we are well and truly done like dinner.

 

[Duke749]

Totally agree. Hutch is not near as bad as his recent downspike, but he's a goalie that thrives on confidence. Helle needs to have 2/3 of the starts for a spell here -- Mo has to go with the hot goalie unless he has been given orders to tank

Will never happen. By if we went that direction, Ladd and Buff would both likely be gone. And I'm still not sure that's near enough to get a top 5 pick.

 

[CaptainChef]

For the love of all that's holy in this world, Armia on-the third line, thorburn 4the and Pluso on the flight home.

Been calling for that for 3 games now. Makes too much sense - won't happen in stubborn Mo's world

 

[SensibleGuy]

Wow...just heard that Hutch faced 20 shots. I'm sorry, but 4 goals on only 20 shots is a bad goaltending performance.

 

[CaptainChef]

It's hard to imagine, but the Jets are being pulled down by two terrible defensemen now. Pardy was absolutely atrocious again. He killed the Jets' momentum early, and then stomped on it later. (By the way, what on earth is Maurice doing playing Pardy with our 4th line when we get back to a 1 goal game?????). Chiarot needs back in ASAP. I would bring up Morrissey and play him, too. Stuart and Pardy are not trustworthy at the NHL level. Of course, we know that it's Harrison that we'll see. That's just how Maurice rolls.
.

So very true - Maurice is a dope and a stubborn one at that. In truth, I don't know if its Huddy or him calling the shots on D but I've seen that situation where they have the worst D on with the 4th line wayyyyy too often. Its like they never learn.

And because Stu & Thorbs are well liked by their teammates, they must play in key roles at all times -- in what world does that make any sense.

 

[Duke749]

I wanna comment on how I'm liking The confidence Myers is having with taking the puck up the ice. He's improving. Needs to get more shots through from the point though. And idk how he didn't see that Jet back door through the slot. Had a lane as wide as I-75 going through Atlanta.