OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[Fogel]

Depends on how much of a nerd you are. I think the standard level of analysis uses OPS+, which is just on-base (batting average plus walks) plus slugging (how many bases you're getting when you get hits) as a function of league average (100 is league average). WRC+ is similar, but it includes a park adjusted factor.

I think some baseball analytics go a bit overboard with it though, because guys fill useful niches even if their OPS+ or WAR isn't necessarily special. For example, a guy who has an OBP of .350 with speed but zero power is a great leadoff hitter (such as Steven Kwan). A guy who is awful defensively but can hit 35 HRs a year and get a ton of RBIs is still a useful cleanup hitter (such as Nick Castellanos). WAR usually represents it pretty well but it can overrate or underrate niche players with specific roles that WAR either likes or doesn't like.

On the Pirates, I think Hayes is a terrific example of that, especially in his 2022 season. In that year, he only had a slash line of .244/.314/.345, which is a clearly below average hitter (88 OPS+). However, WAR absolutely loved his defense, to the point where he finished with 4.4 WAR in 136 games. That's insanely overrating him, he is simply not as good as his WAR suggests in that year. I think Triolo is another guy on the Pirates who WAR overrates due to his defense.

Kwan has a SLG of .419 which would put him behind only Cruz, Bart, Reynolds and Cutch on the Pirates so that isn't exactly singles only.

the whole skenes/merrill thing is a bit perplexing to me since skenes has better numbers than the cy young candidates and merrill isnt close to being an mvp candidate

Skenes has as good numbers as Sale and Skubal, but the argument there is the same as with Merrill: there is value in having started the season vs. May 11. For instance, Sale has 2.38 ERA and 2.08 FIP, Skubal has 2.39/2.49 and Skenes has 1.99/2.48 so very similar in FIP and similar in ERA. However, Sale has 177.2 IP, Skubal 192IP and Skenes has 131IP. Those 46+IP and 61IP over an extra 7 and 9 stats are pretty valuable.

Similarly, Merrill has been playing above average defense at CF which was a new position for him and would be the best offensive Pirate if he was on the team for the entire year. If he started the same time as Skenes, he would be losing 137 of his 582 plate appearances. Losing 23% of his plate appearances would certainly impact how he is viewed, why wouldn't that apply to Skenes?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kwan has a SLG of .419 which would put him behind only Cruz, Bart, Reynolds and Cutch on the Pirates so that isn't exactly singles only.

Kwan has 107 singles and 33 xBHs (16 doubles, 3 triples and 14 HRs). His SLG is solid because he gets a ton of singles, not because he has any notable power.

His 23.5% xBH% isn't much better than Triolo's 22.6% and is far worse than Cruz (41.4%), Reynolds (32.3%), McCutchen (37.5%) and Bart (35.9%). He just gets a shitload of singles, and SLG is just a measure of how many bases you get per AB.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller, bleh.

Who cares overall, but this guy still pisses me off. If we were going to give a starter $15M/year we should have just signed Flaherty and went arbitration with Lil Bmitch Keller.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Keller, bleh.

Who cares overall, but this guy still pisses me off. If we were going to give a starter $15M/year we should have just signed Flaherty and went arbitration with Lil Bmitch Keller.

He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings, that's a totally fine outing.

I don't really understand the anti-Keller and anti-Jones posts from you tbh. Keller is a good mid-rotation starter, probably a solid #3 on a good team. Same with Jones, he's already there now and looks to have the stuff to have #2 upside.

 

[ChaosAgent]

He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings, that's a totally fine outing.

I don't really understand the anti-Keller and anti-Jones posts from you tbh. Keller is a good mid-rotation starter, probably a solid #3 on a good team. Same with Jones, he's already there now and looks to have the stuff to have #2 upside.

This team can't afford to have them not be good. It was the acting like we had a winning rotation. In reality we have Skenes and mediocrity.

Reconning Keller and Jones to "they were always just supposed to be mid-rotation starters" does not jive at all with the dialogue early in the season.

How does Keller's ERA+ compare to a #3 on a good team like the Yankees or Dodgers or Padres? Not favorably, I bet.

 

[ChaosAgent]

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The MLB's ERA is 4.08.
Keller's is 4.25. Jones' is 4.14.

Jones is still a good prospect. Keller crumbles against decent competition time and again. Hopefully he is traded.

 

[BusinessGoose]

TBH, based on the season at that point, i wouldn't have been surprised if Keller was selected for the ASG over rookie Skenes

 

[Factorial]

Heard a rumor Tellez no showed to a charity event and other players were pissed off at him which led to him being DFA'ed. That and his crappy Sept. Can't vouch for it.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Keller and Flarahity are the same pitcher. Jack is going to get 18 to 20 million aav in free agency

 

[BusinessGoose]

Heard a rumor Tellez no showed to a charity event and other players were pissed off at him which led to him being DFA'ed. That and his crappy Sept. Can't vouch for it.

Tellez didn't seem the type to do that

Nutting seems the type to save $200k

Awaiting more evidence on tellez, there's a boatload of evidence on nutting

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller and Flarahity are the same pitcher. Jack is going to get 18 to 20 million aav in free agency

Yes, why were we in a hurry to give that to Keller? He was in arbitration. I know we have our 2 extension per year PR quota. But not with him.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

Heard a rumor Tellez no showed to a charity event and other players were pissed off at him which led to him being DFA'ed. That and his crappy Sept. Can't vouch for it.

Maybe he can set up his own charity for 200K.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Yes, why were we in a hurry to give that to Keller? He was in arbitration. I know we have our 2 extension per year PR quota. But not with him.

They have to spend some money to keep the league happy he is probably going to be traded before 26 anyway
This winter they will extend Cruz

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Thinking on it, Nutting is asking for trouble over chump change.

The Pirates have been investigated before for violating the revenue sharing agreement.

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Actions like this are asking to trigger another investigation.

 

[metalan2]

Keller, bleh.

Who cares overall, but this guy still pisses me off. If we were going to give a starter $15M/year we should have just signed Flaherty and went arbitration with Lil Bmitch Keller.

Has he lost 100% of his starts since the all star break? Seems like it. I know his era is definitely over 5 in that time.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Has he lost 100% of his starts since the all star break? Seems like it. I know his era is definitely over 5 in that time.

It's okay, he isn't expected to be actually good so it doesn't matter that he isn't good. We will just have Paul Skenes and be average to bad everywhere else and it's cool.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Has he lost 100% of his starts since the all star break? Seems like it. I know his era is definitely over 5 in that time.

7.29 era since the break and lost 5 out of his last 6 outings

 

[Empoleon8771]

This team can't afford to have them not be good. It was the acting like we had a winning rotation. In reality we have Skenes and mediocrity.

Reconning Keller and Jones to "they were always just supposed to be mid-rotation starters" does not jive at all with the dialogue early in the season.

How does Keller's ERA+ compare to a #3 on a good team like the Yankees or Dodgers or Padres? Not favorably, I bet.

It’s not “retconning” to say that Keller is a good #3, stop making stuff up. He’s the same pitcher he’s been in the past 2 years: a workhorse starter that puts up about a 100-105 ERA+. That’s a good #3 type on most teams in the league.

He was the ace of the Pirates before Skenes because they didn’t have anyone else. Complaining about him not being good is just silly, their rotation is one of the only good parts of this team.

This idea that a pitcher isn't "good" because he's not putting up a 3.00 ERA is just dumb. It's the same thing with Jones, he put up a 101 ERA+ as a 22 year old rookie and you're screaming about how he's not good and they should trade him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Take it for what it's worth since it's from DK:

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No, neither Nutting nor Travis Williams were part of Ben Cherington's recent public statement that "I fully expect" Derek Shelton to be back in 2025. Cherington spoke on his own. Read into that what one will.

I continue to get zero vibes that Cherington's in trouble. Absolute zero. Which I find flabbergasting under the circumstances, but hey, again, Nutting's made no calls to date. And I'd never dreamed he'd eventually fire everyone in 2019, as he did despite having to eat $17.2 million in guaranteed money for all those guys.

Shelton, on the other hand, has knives out for him all over the place. As does Andy Haines. And I'm talking about from the inside.

Baseball players might be the most attentive and observant of any sport anywhere. And as such, the things that'd bother them about a manager wouldn't be those that'd bother, say, the common fan. An example: I'm told that one common complaint in the clubhouse is Shelton's striking reluctance to activate a running game. As one source relayed to me, with Bryan Reynolds leading the team with just 22 home runs, it's wild that even fast players at first base aren't sent to steal or even to get moving on a hit-and-run attempt. And after that was shared with me, I was able to find several such instances in the past week alone.

There are similar complaints about lineup construction, although I'd be hypocritical here if I didn't add my own view that nothing's more overblown in baseball than a batting order. Regardless, one inside view is that, because Reynolds bats second, it shouldn't be, say, Alika Williams batting ninth, the better to afford Reynolds RBI opportunities.

That was more about the Shelton parts, makes me at least think that he's not as safe as Cherington suggested. Also apparently Tellez was a prick that no one will miss, and his DFAing was just Cherington being an idiot and tone deaf for what the reaction would be. Nutting had nothing to do with it.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I did find it interesting the commentators on tv always said IFK would unlock the lack of base runner aggression and stealing aggression. We don’t have a real lead off hitter Cutch isn’t going to run cruz doesn’t make sense leading off

 

[ChaosAgent]

It’s not “retconning” to say that Keller is a good #3, stop making stuff up. He’s the same pitcher he’s been in the past 2 years: a workhorse starter that puts up about a 100-105 ERA+. That’s a good #3 type on most teams in the league.

He was the ace of the Pirates before Skenes because they didn’t have anyone else. Complaining about him not being good is just silly, their rotation is one of the only good parts of this team.

This idea that a pitcher isn't "good" because he's not putting up a 3.00 ERA is just dumb. It's the same thing with Jones, he put up a 101 ERA+ as a 22 year old rookie and you're screaming about how he's not good and they should trade him.

What is this team and organization supposed to be good at?

So Keller and Jones are adequate rotation pitchers. Where are the +s that give me any hope going forward? I'm not trying to be too hard on you but this is where we diverge in how we view things. It's the same with the Penguins. "Perfectly adequate for the role" ---> if you add this up across an entire roster you get .500.

Jones could be good, and you're totally wrong about how he was viewed earlier this year. He was a sensation and #1-2 pitcher in this board's eyes. Now he's just a good prospect with potential to be that. I only want to trade him because we have to get hitters that can result in us scoring 5 runs a game, not 2. And he is an attractive asset.

I'm sure this time next year when Chandler has a 4.40 ERA you'll chide anyone for thinking he was supposed to be better too.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What is this team and organization supposed to be good at?

So Keller and Jones are adequate rotation pitchers. Where are the +s that give me any hope going forward? I'm not trying to be too hard on you but this is where we diverge in how we view things. It's the same with the Penguins. "Perfectly adequate for the role" ---> if you add this up across an entire roster you get .500.

Jones could be good, and you're totally wrong about how he was viewed earlier this year. He was a sensation and #1-2 pitcher in this board's eyes. Now he's just a good prospect with potential to be that. I only want to trade him because we have to get hitters that can result in us scoring 5 runs a game, not 2. And he is an attractive asset.

I'm sure this time next year when Chandler has a 4.40 ERA you'll chide anyone for thinking he was supposed to be better too.

Keller is a workhorse #3 starter. Jones is already a 22 year old #3 starter with #1 or #2 upside. Calling those guys just "adequate starting pitchers" is completely underrating them.

Bailey Falter is an "adequate starting pitcher". Keller and Jones are good starters.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller is a workhorse #3 starter. Jones is already a 22 year old #3 starter with #1 or #2 upside. Calling those guys just "adequate starting pitchers" is completely underrating them.

Bailey Falter is an "adequate starting pitcher". Keller and Jones are good starters.

Keller and Jones put up league-average ERAs. Does that = good starter?

I ask again where this team is supposed to be above-average, that is to say comparatively better than other teams.

It appears that Keller, Jones, Ortiz, Oviedo and whoever else is not actually a better #2-5 than most other orgs. The bullpen is in shambles. The lineup sucks.

Jones is a good prospect with high potential. You haven't refuted anything I said about Keller other than your standby "lower your expectations." I was told Mitch Keller was an ace. He had a Jedi shirt promotion this year.
When your good players aren't that good, that's how you win 70 games. Same with Reynolds and Cruz BTW.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Keller and Jones put up league-average ERAs. Does that = good starter?

I ask again where this team is supposed to be above-average, that is to say comparatively better than other teams.

It appears that Keller, Jones, Ortiz, Oviedo and whoever else is not actually a better #2-5 than most other orgs. The bullpen is in shambles. The lineup sucks.

Jones is a good prospect with high potential. You haven't refuted anything I said about Keller other than your standby "lower your expectations." I was told Mitch Keller was an ace. He had a Jedi shirt promotion this year.
When your good players aren't that good, that's how you win 70 games. Same with Reynolds and Cruz BTW.

When you're able to do it consistently year after year while giving 30+ starts, of course it does. Your argument is literally just "Keller isn't the ace that some people overrate him to be, so he sucks". It's just a bad argument.

He's a good workhorse #3 starter that is paid like a workhorse #3 starter. Singling him out as some sort of issue with the rest of the major issues this team has is just axe grinding, there's no other way to put it.

Keller would be a #3 starter on most playoff teams from what I'm seeing with their rosters. Granted some of them are due to injuries, Keller wouldn't be a #3 on the Dodgers if Glasnow and Stone were healthy. But he'd clearly be a #3 starter on teams like the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Tigers, Orioles and Brewers.

 

[ChaosAgent]

When you're able to do it consistently year after year while giving 30+ starts, of course it does. Your argument is literally just "Keller isn't the ace that some people overrate him to be, so he sucks". It's just a bad argument.

He's a good workhorse #3 starter that is paid like a workhorse #3 starter. Singling him out as some sort of issue with the rest of the major issues this team has is just axe grinding, there's no other way to put it.

Keller would be a #3 starter on most playoff teams from what I'm seeing with their rosters. Granted some of them are due to injuries, Keller wouldn't be a #3 on the Dodgers if Glasnow and Stone were healthy. But he'd clearly be a #3 starter on teams like the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Tigers, Orioles and Brewers.

And if they rolled out Keller, he of the 6 ERA in the last 2 months, in a playoff series their opponents would be salivating.

I mean whatever. He'll be here and be Pirates Jarry again next year. But if I'm looking for reasons to believe in the 2025 team, he isn't one of them. Jones gives me a lot more optimism but I wouldn't hesitate to cash in his potential for someone who could help the offense for the next 2-3 years