OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[Fogel]

Depends on how much of a nerd you are. I think the standard level of analysis uses OPS+, which is just on-base (batting average plus walks) plus slugging (how many bases you're getting when you get hits) as a function of league average (100 is league average). WRC+ is similar, but it includes a park adjusted factor.

I think some baseball analytics go a bit overboard with it though, because guys fill useful niches even if their OPS+ or WAR isn't necessarily special. For example, a guy who has an OBP of .350 with speed but zero power is a great leadoff hitter (such as Steven Kwan). A guy who is awful defensively but can hit 35 HRs a year and get a ton of RBIs is still a useful cleanup hitter (such as Nick Castellanos). WAR usually represents it pretty well but it can overrate or underrate niche players with specific roles that WAR either likes or doesn't like.

On the Pirates, I think Hayes is a terrific example of that, especially in his 2022 season. In that year, he only had a slash line of .244/.314/.345, which is a clearly below average hitter (88 OPS+). However, WAR absolutely loved his defense, to the point where he finished with 4.4 WAR in 136 games. That's insanely overrating him, he is simply not as good as his WAR suggests in that year. I think Triolo is another guy on the Pirates who WAR overrates due to his defense.

Kwan has a SLG of .419 which would put him behind only Cruz, Bart, Reynolds and Cutch on the Pirates so that isn't exactly singles only.

the whole skenes/merrill thing is a bit perplexing to me since skenes has better numbers than the cy young candidates and merrill isnt close to being an mvp candidate

Skenes has as good numbers as Sale and Skubal, but the argument there is the same as with Merrill: there is value in having started the season vs. May 11. For instance, Sale has 2.38 ERA and 2.08 FIP, Skubal has 2.39/2.49 and Skenes has 1.99/2.48 so very similar in FIP and similar in ERA. However, Sale has 177.2 IP, Skubal 192IP and Skenes has 131IP. Those 46+IP and 61IP over an extra 7 and 9 stats are pretty valuable.

Similarly, Merrill has been playing above average defense at CF which was a new position for him and would be the best offensive Pirate if he was on the team for the entire year. If he started the same time as Skenes, he would be losing 137 of his 582 plate appearances. Losing 23% of his plate appearances would certainly impact how he is viewed, why wouldn't that apply to Skenes?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kwan has a SLG of .419 which would put him behind only Cruz, Bart, Reynolds and Cutch on the Pirates so that isn't exactly singles only.

Kwan has 107 singles and 33 xBHs (16 doubles, 3 triples and 14 HRs). His SLG is solid because he gets a ton of singles, not because he has any notable power.

His 23.5% xBH% isn't much better than Triolo's 22.6% and is far worse than Cruz (41.4%), Reynolds (32.3%), McCutchen (37.5%) and Bart (35.9%). He just gets a shitload of singles, and SLG is just a measure of how many bases you get per AB.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller, bleh.

Who cares overall, but this guy still pisses me off. If we were going to give a starter $15M/year we should have just signed Flaherty and went arbitration with Lil Bmitch Keller.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Keller, bleh.

Who cares overall, but this guy still pisses me off. If we were going to give a starter $15M/year we should have just signed Flaherty and went arbitration with Lil Bmitch Keller.

He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings, that's a totally fine outing.

I don't really understand the anti-Keller and anti-Jones posts from you tbh. Keller is a good mid-rotation starter, probably a solid #3 on a good team. Same with Jones, he's already there now and looks to have the stuff to have #2 upside.

 

[ChaosAgent]

He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings, that's a totally fine outing.

I don't really understand the anti-Keller and anti-Jones posts from you tbh. Keller is a good mid-rotation starter, probably a solid #3 on a good team. Same with Jones, he's already there now and looks to have the stuff to have #2 upside.

This team can't afford to have them not be good. It was the acting like we had a winning rotation. In reality we have Skenes and mediocrity.

Reconning Keller and Jones to "they were always just supposed to be mid-rotation starters" does not jive at all with the dialogue early in the season.

How does Keller's ERA+ compare to a #3 on a good team like the Yankees or Dodgers or Padres? Not favorably, I bet.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Major League Pitching Year-by-Year Averages | Baseball-Reference.com

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The MLB's ERA is 4.08.
Keller's is 4.25. Jones' is 4.14.

Jones is still a good prospect. Keller crumbles against decent competition time and again. Hopefully he is traded.

 

[BusinessGoose]

TBH, based on the season at that point, i wouldn't have been surprised if Keller was selected for the ASG over rookie Skenes

 

[Factorial]

Heard a rumor Tellez no showed to a charity event and other players were pissed off at him which led to him being DFA'ed. That and his crappy Sept. Can't vouch for it.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Keller and Flarahity are the same pitcher. Jack is going to get 18 to 20 million aav in free agency

 

[BusinessGoose]

Heard a rumor Tellez no showed to a charity event and other players were pissed off at him which led to him being DFA'ed. That and his crappy Sept. Can't vouch for it.

Tellez didn't seem the type to do that

Nutting seems the type to save $200k

Awaiting more evidence on tellez, there's a boatload of evidence on nutting