Quoting myself here to keep track of these long posts (page 15), but we are basically on the path of mediocrity here. 3-3 to avoid total disaster as we somehow managed to scrape a win against the Yankees and also win the Cardinals series despite Skenes having an off game.
3 games vs the Reds to determine just where we are on the mediocrity/bad team scale for the time being. A series win gets us to that kind of shitty 7-9 start where at least the wheels haven't entirely come off, but flipping two winnable games vs the Marlins would make things look slightly different than they do right now.
The Reds essentially have had an identical season to us and are also coming off a series win, albeit against a better opponent than St. Louis in San Francisco (personally I think the Cardinals should be the worst team in this division, but they have the bungling franchises of Cincy and us to thank for not making it more apparent.... their pitching is absolute dog shit and their lineup is middling at best, but I'm on a tangent).
They have a clear advantage in my eyes on paper, as Singer has looked solid and they'll get Greene vs. Mlodzinski on Sunday. I still think this series is somewhat unpredictable with any outcome being in the cards, but I'd lean towards 1-2 which would make the record a slightly uglier 6-10. They are sweepable, but we are too, just as much, if not more given the pitching matchups and uncertainty about Cruz's hand. Still not sure the details matter at all, given the obvious.
Not really much else needs to be said. The vibes are off the charts horrible, the team on the field -- especially the lineup -- is worse, and it's hard to see much end in sight. The arbitrarily broken down records are now:
First stretch: 2-5
Second stretch: 3-6
Pretty clear pattern, even if the total sample is still small enough that under normal circumstances, you could brush it off a bit as some bad bounces, especially thinking back to that ugly Miami series.
But it's obviously not "normal circumstances", since this is the consequence of not investing at all in the team, doing very badly on trades, and overall just seemingly punting another prime opportunity, given Skenes + the division. One thing to add to this longstanding complaint list is that, even setting side the bad trades + never ever signing any free agent of substance, the depth on the team is just atrocious.
Looking ahead, I think the main question that I have is when will the panic moves start coming and what will they be? The only thing I can really see is somewhat more of the same, so to speak: we could call up Bubba, who by all accounts has looked insane to start the year, and then shift Mlod back to a bullpen role where he's pretty badly needed. If Bubba can stick to some extent (a big if for any rookie pitcher), that would help a little bit, but it doesn't seem to be much of an answer to the "rebuilding year 1" lineup that Shelton has to roll out on any given night.
And looking ahead at the actual schedule, I think a slightly longer stretch makes sense. We have a home stand vs Washington and Cleveland and then an LA trip vs the Dodgers and Angels, for a total of 12 games. It's really hard to even see 6-6 given that all these teams are better than us, and now even a 6-6 "hold ground" stretch would not do anything to get us out of the hole we're in.
An optimistic "that's baseball" take could maybe push for some kind of 8-4 miracle: win series, sweep the Angels (who look much more competent), and somehow take 1 from the gargantuan Dodgers. I can't see that at all, but I guess that would cull back a little bit of the horrible start. 6-6 would make for 11-17 while the miracle 8-4 would only get things to 13-15. A "bad but still not quite disaster" 4-8 would see 9-19, which I think would pretty definitively be the kind of hole that this team can't dig out of.
Edit: my numbers in the last paragraph are off. Much like the Pirates, I was sloppy and didn't do the bare minimum. The Nationals series is 4 games. We get the small grace of not seeing McKenzie Gore, so maybe the optimistic "that's baseball" (i.e., shit can change fast, even with little explanation) take could be 8-5: 3-1 vs WAS, 1-2 vs CLE, 2-1 vs LAA, 1-2 vs LAD. Things do line up so that Skenes will pitch vs. CLE and LAD if I am not making another sloppy mistake, so I suppose something like that is in theory possible and then it's 13-16 and not quite as horrendous.
It's probably still all downhill from here. My worst feeling: I think Cherington's job is probably still safe into the offseason.