LastWordArmy
Registered User
That makes things pointless because then every player has a generational ceiling.
No they don't
Again, I will use the example of PK Subban. Under no circumstances in his draft year would anyone say his ceiling is a Norris trophy winning defenseman.
PK Subban is not Generational Player.
That said, he always had that Norris upside. It was slim, but he always had high, high-end offensive skill. Which is what it takes to win the Norris. He needed to work on his defense. He needed to learn to pick his spots as well.
He had a crazy development curve which elevated his ceiling as a player.
His ceiling was highly unlikely to be reached when he was drafted. There were lots of questions, but the ceiling was there.
He projected as a second pair guy, but his ceiling was higher.
His crazy development curve meant the ceiling was reached.
A player's ceiling and floor are absolutely different all the time until their progression or regression is done.
Datsyuk, Zetterberg? These guys had talent but their ceilings at the time were not what they became. If they were? They would have been the first picks by Detroit in those drafts.
Both very good, neither generational.
Generational is obvious, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid. Not every player has that ceiling.
Their ceiling was all-star, first line players. It was unlikely they would reach it, which is why they weren't taken sooner.
Its why I'd rather take a high ceiling, talented player in the draft over a Connor Crisp or a Michael Pezetta who legit don't have that ceiling.
That is why those picks are high reward picks, Yeah, its likely they bust, but every now and then a talented player develops. Take talent, take high risk, high ceilings late in the draft.
Pezzetta and Crisp never had first line ceilings. They never had that level of skill.
I would now recommend that you write for all your prospect reports "Ceiling? Generational player. Floor? Retired Hockey Player". Just so you can use the parameters you have now set for yourself.
We do write them that way. Ceiling of a first line player, but more likely to top out as a second liner.
Let's use a more current example. Robert Thomas, during his off season, he studied the releases of the best scorers in the NHL. He overhauled his shooting and is now a more dangerous scoring threat than in his draft year. That changes his ceiling as a player, because previously, he did not show he had the scoring capacity to elevate his projection at the NHL level. What you projected him 12 months at the draft, even as a Blues scout, has now changed.
What we wrote about Thomas pre-draft
"Thomas has the skills to be an effective two-way centre at the NHL level. There is some question if he has the high end offensive ability to be a number one centre, but he could develop into a very good number two, capable of matching against top lines and playing special teams minutes."
Robert Thomas Scouting Report: 2017 NHL Draft #20 - Last Word on Sports
In other words..... He could be a number one, but there are some big questions... likely to be a number two.
Today he's answered some, not all, but some of the questions.