NotProkofievian
Registered User
- Nov 29, 2011
- 24,545
- 24,716
So what your saying is your draft analysis of his ceiling wasn't a ceiling at all?
Ceiling, that word doesn't mean what you think it means.
His ceiling right now is first line centre. Is he likely to make that? No, its a very low probability IMO... but as an 18 year old, his ceiling (ie best case scenario) remains high, even if the likelihood of getting there is low.
I agree he likely tops out as a second line centre, but there is still a chance he could be more.
I think he has a pretty good idea of what a ceiling is. If you want a ceiling to never be broken, just say the ceiling for everyone is a generational player. That's not a meaningful qualifier though. As you say, there's a certain probability associated to every outcome. It's higher or lower for every player. What he's saying a ceiling is could be ''the best outcome with a probability not lower than x.'' This is a perfectly coherent idea, and I would say a much more useful idea.