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Other Sports: Philadelphia Phillies: The Road To .500 (2023 Edition)

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Rebels57 said:
Thomson is not a good manager. Plain and simple.
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Sitting on his hands when the offense put up 1, 1, 2 in 3 of the last 4 games is frustrating. Shuffle the lineup some. Get one of the bench guys in for Rojas in some spots to hopefully provide a spark. Nothing

Using Kimbrel in game 4 after he had a terrible 20+ pitch loss the night before is head scratching at best. It’s not as big of a blunder and this is probably hindsight but taking out a cruising Hoffman for an off and on sometimes wild and hitable Alvarado bit them. Maybe the offense has a different mindset if it’s just a 1 run game. Incompetent managing. Incompetent hitting. Incompetent bullpen. Aren’t going to win many series with all 3 of those
 
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Henry Miller said:
Sitting on his hands when the offense put up 1, 1, 2 in 3 of the last 4 games is frustrating. Shuffle the lineup some. Get one of the bench guys in for Rojas in some spots to hopefully provide a spark. Nothing

Using Kimbrel in game 4 after he had a terrible 20+ pitch loss the night before is head scratching at best. It’s not as big of a blunder and this is probably hindsight but taking out a cruising Hoffman for an off and on sometimes wild and hitable Alvarado bit them. Maybe the offense has a different mindset if it’s just a 1 run game. Incompetent managing. Incompetent hitting. Incompetent bullpen. Aren’t going to win many series with all 3 of those
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His decision making is terrible. Mismanaged the bullpen and didn't bother to manage the lineup. I don't care if he's likeable, do your f***ing job, Topper
 
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FLYguy3911 said:
You don’t pinch hit with two outs and a lead for your best defensive player. The bench isn’t exactly great and those guys haven’t had competitive ABs in weeks.


I’ll be honest. I’m a stat nerd and I have no idea what those metrics are. Trea was slightly above average offensively this year. Kyle Schwarber, despite hitting under .200 was a top 50 hitter this year by wOBA and wRC+ - the two most universally accepted offensive stats.

Trea has been a productive hitter throughout his career. That’s why he got a $300 million contract. I still have some confidence he will be closer to the August Turner than May Turner, but for much of this year and this series, his approach was dog shit and it undermined his true talent level. Schwarber’s approach never wavers. Even when he’s not locked in, he works counts and pitchers. That’s valuable. If Trea was running those really low strikeout rates like he has at times in the past I could see the case to have him as the no doubt lead off hitter but he swings and misses just as much as Schwarber. Think about that for a second. Doesn’t walk. Swings and misses at a high clip. That’s a bad combo at any spot in the lineup much less lead off.

Trea still had a good postseason overall but he was not good in the close out games in large part to chasing pitches and getting in bad counts again. The result doesn’t change if he’s leading off. And Schwarber was great this series. It’s a strange hill to die on.
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The metrics I mentioned are various ways to look at runs above replacement player.

I agree that Schwarber had a better NLCS than Trae, but I'm not basing my opinion on a small sample size like that. I argued against Schwarber leading off during the regular season too. And I'll still feel the same when next season rolls around.
 
Jack Straw said:
The metrics I mentioned are various ways to look at runs above replacement player.

I agree that Schwarber had a better NLCS than Trae, but I'm not basing my opinion on a small sample size like that. I argued against Schwarber leading off during the regular season too. And I'll still feel the same when next season rolls around.
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Where are you seeing oRAR? rPos is a positional adjustment. Makes sense that Turner would rate higher because he has above average offense at shortstop.

EDIT:

Oh... also bbref. My bad, remember seeing this before. oRAR also makes a positional adjustment.

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wankstifier said:
I'm pretty sure this is saying that Turner provides more "value" because he rates better above a replacement shortstop at producing runs. Ignoring position, Schwarber is the better hitter, though.
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Sorry but there is no way, and I mean absolutely positively none, that you can convince me that a guy who hit .197 (.227 career) is a better hitter than a guy who hit .266 (.296 career).
 
Jack Straw said:
Sorry but there is no way, and I mean absolutely positively none, that you can convince me that a guy who hit .197 (.227 career) is a better hitter than a guy who hit .266 (.296 career).
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Have you seen or read moneyball? Maybe it is semantics but Schwarber is better at the plate(some may say hitter) than Trea. The key is getting on base and keep the line moving.
 
Halladay said:
Have you seen or read moneyball? Maybe it is semantics but Schwarber is better at the plate(some may say hitter) than Trea. The key is getting on base and keep the line moving.
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No, I haven't. But I understand the thinking. My whole point here is that what happens after the player gets on base matters. Getting on base and dying is useless. Turner does things once he gets on base that make it more likely that he will score than Schwarber does. That's what I meant in my first post on this subject when I said he puts pressure on the defense after he gets on base. Schwarber puts pressure on the defense when he's standing in the batters box, and that's about it. The fact that teams are willing to put him on so frequently should be a clue that getting on base is not the be all and end all.

OBP doesn't tell the whole story, no single stat does.
 
Jack Straw said:
No, I haven't. But I understand the thinking. My whole point here is that what happens after the player gets on base matters. Getting on base and dying is useless. Turner does things once he gets on base that make it more likely that he will score than Schwarber does. That's what I meant in my first post on this subject when I said he puts pressure on the defense after he gets on base. Schwarber puts pressure on the defense when he's standing in the batters box, and that's about it. The fact that teams are willing to put him on so frequently should be a clue that getting on base is not the be all and end all.

OBP doesn't tell the whole story, no single stat does.
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It is more that he has such a good eye and the fact he can mash a homerun. You are correct as in OBP doesn't tell the story, but there are other stats that weight everything. If the Phillies had a better leadoff I'd be all for it but I don't see the 2023 version of Trea as it.
 
Jack Straw said:
Sorry but there is no way, and I mean absolutely positively none, that you can convince me that a guy who hit .197 (.227 career) is a better hitter than a guy who hit .266 (.296 career).
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I think you're recognizing that singles are better than walks, but you're ignoring that homers are by far the best outcome for a hitter.
 
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wankstifier said:
I think you're recognizing that singles are better than walks, but you're ignoring that homers are by far the best outcome for a hitter.
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It's not about singles vs walks. It's about what happens once the guy gets to first base (or second). Who do you think is more likely to score once he gets to first, Schwarber or Turner? And Turner has a higher career OBP than Schwarber.

And Schwarber can still hit homers batting in the middle of the order. More likely to have runners on base too.

wankstifier said:
Wild thought: how much worse do you think Castellanos would be than Bohm at fielding 3B?
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MUCH
 
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Henry Miller said:
What I don’t get is how a team full of some very good hitters goes ice cold throughout the lineup. Hitters will always be hot and cold as it’s the nature of the beast, but to have it happen to everyone is a little mind boggling. I’ve always gotten the feeling the hitters fed off their own energy too much. Either that or a terrible hitting philosophy. Maybe both. Too many unprofessional at bats by good hitters in the latter half of the series
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Honestly I think this was a situation of being too big for your britches. They were flying so high like nothing could stop them, then they hit a wall and just it seemed like the big guns swung at every single pitch regardless of where it was and expected good things to happen because they were on such a tear (with the exception of Schwarber). It just ran out. With more time they could have righted the ship but you don't get more time in the playoffs. Maybe we can blame the playoff format like Braves fans? We shouldn't have had to play the Braves because we were a higher seed than AZ so we were tired! Wahhhhh!
 
Jack Straw said:
It's not about singles vs walks. It's about what happens once the guy gets to first base (or second). Who do you think is more likely to score once he gets to first, Schwarber or Turner?
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Yeah, I think you're undervaluing homers quite a bit.

And Turner has a higher career OBP than Schwarber.
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We're talking about this season. Turner's career OBP is driven be his speed and ability to make contact. I can see an argument for peak Turner leading off over peak Schwarber. But we didn't get those players this season. I get that Turner is an awesome baserunner and Schwarber clogs the paths for guys with speed. However, at his worst, Turner is in a pitcher's count and either whiffing or fighting to make weak contact, whereas Schwarber is at least making the opposition work for an out.

And Schwarber can still hit homers batting in the middle of the order. More likely to have runners on base too.
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Who's getting on base in these scenarios? If the contact hitters at the top of the order are cold, the bases are empty and you're giving Schwarber fewer opportunities per game to hit homers.
 
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Halladay said:
Not sending Stott in the moment was so dumb especially when they don't have good arms and an automatic K in Nick was next. Force them to make a good throw.
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So many what-if’s. That whole bottom 4th to top of 5th could look a lot different if the Phillies were more aggressive in multiple facets
 
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wankstifier said:
Yeah, I think you're undervaluing homers quite a bit.


We're talking about this season. Turner's career OBP is driven be his speed and ability to make contact. I can see an argument for peak Turner leading off over peak Schwarber. But we didn't get those players this season. I get that Turner is an awesome baserunner and Schwarber clogs the paths for guys with speed. However, at his worst, Turner is in a pitcher's count and either whiffing or fighting to make weak contact, whereas Schwarber is at least making the opposition work for an out.


Who's getting on base in these scenarios? If the contact hitters at the top of the order are cold, the bases are empty and you're giving Schwarber fewer opportunities per game to hit homers.
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I'm not talking about just this season. I'm talking about in general, but at this point I'm also talking about next season. We got an abnormally bad version of Turner for the first part of the season. I'm guessing that post "ovation" his numbers were more in line with his career numbers. And if guys at the top of the order aren't getting on base then you're not winning anything anyway and that's the problem you have to fix.
 
This offseason:
1. Eat however much $ you need to eat to make Nick go away
2. Say goodbye to Kimbrel
3. Hand a blank check to Shohei
4. Re-sign Nola; you aren’t going to find anyone better for much less money anyway.

Next years batting order
Schwarber
Ohtani
Harper
Turner
Stott
Realmuto
Marsh
Bohm
Pache or Rojas
 
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Henry Miller said:
So many what-if’s. That whole bottom 4th to top of 5th could look a lot different if the Phillies were more aggressive in multiple facets
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That's the annoying part but I will be annoyed with game 4 and probably will be unless they win a World Series in the near future (highly doubtful as this was their best chance).
 
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Halladay said:
Not sending Stott in the moment was so dumb especially when they don't have good arms and an automatic K in Nick was next. Force them to make a good throw.
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100% - just about everything Phillies management did yesterday failed. A theme throughout the series.

Didn't send Stott on what would have been a close play but Stotts a great baserunner and their arms blow.

Then he didn't pinch-hit for Rojas. The odds of Rojas making a play in Center that either Pache or Marsh couldn't get to and it being a factor in the outcome of the game were extremely low. Both are plus CFs. They needed a hit right there to blow the game open and there was no way Rojas was coming through there. Pache or Cave had a better chance.

Should have gone right to Wheeler with a clean 5th inning and a 2-1 lead (which could have been 3-1 if they sent Stott...or even larger with a bases loaded hit from a pinch-hitter). Ranger never should have faced Carroll a 3rd time.

Then you have Turner and Nick who refused to adjust their approach and just flailed around embarrasing themselves.

This loss hurts more to me than the World Series. Even though the bats went cold then too, they were playing a better team and had nothing to be ashamed of in the end.

This series loss is SHAMEFUL.

BiggE said:
This offseason:
1. Eat however much $ you need to eat to make Nick go away
2. Say goodbye to Kimbrel
3. Hand a blank check to Shohei
4. Re-sign Nola; you aren’t going to find anyone better for much less money anyway.

Next years batting order
Schwarber
Ohtani
Harper
Turner
Stott
Realmuto
Marsh
Bohm
Pache or Rojas
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Ohtani won't happen. Maybe they should kick the tires on Trout?

Snell would be a good signing if they can't re-sign Nola.
 
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