HR/9 ranks of those same pitchers
Nola (10th worst 1.58, .275 BABIP)
Peralta (#19 1.34, .280 BABIP)
Strider (#27 1.16, .326 BABIP)
Kelly (#32 1.09, .272 BABIP)
Burnes (#35 0.99, .238 BABIP)
Alcantara (#37 0.97, .284 BABIP)
Webb (#40 0.94, .300 BABIP)
Wheeler (#51, 0.88, .301 BABIP)
Gallen (#54 0.87, .294 BABIP)
Steele (#60 0.71, .306 BABIP)
It's not even a case of 'bad luck' in terms of balls in play as Nola actually has the 3rd lowest average of those 10 pitchers. So he is less likely to give up a hit when a ball is put in play than any of them. It's *when* he gives up a hit (HR)
Nola vs Wheeler
Runners on base:
Nola: .274 BA against, .814 OPS against, 11 HR allowed. 62 runs allowed.
Wheeler: .259 BA against, .639 OPS against, 1 HR allowed. 44 runs allowed.
That's the story right there. Wheeler only has allowed 1 non solo HR the entire season. Nola averages a multi-shot HR almost every other start.
I know we're supposed to be careful about talking about mental issues and things like that... but we've all seen it in the past and remarked about it. Nola gets rattled and then it hurts his pitching. I've seen some watching him say the change to the pitch clock has been especially hard on Nola because now the catcher can't even try to slow things down and get him through it.