I think it's closer than you think. I don't believe he'll get in unless he has a really strong end to his career, but he is definitely a HOF talent 2B.
If you look at his numbers the biggest thing holding him back is his games played. If he hadn't been hurt for those 3 seasons he'd most likely be a lock for the HOF.
He's above the 2B HOF Avg for HR's, SLG%, and OPS. He's exactly Avg in OBP.
In per game statistics he's above the average in 2B/G, HR/G, RBI/G, Runs/Game, and just below avg in Hits/G.
I think if he has a real strong finish to his career he may get in eventually, and he'll have a better chance once the dinosaurs aren't voting anymore.
There's a couple Tables in the excel sheet comparing his numbers to the HOF Second basemen.
I'll have to look at the spreadsheet later, but IMO, based on what I have seen and the comparables with far more hardware, I wouldn't vote for (barring any ridiculous run in the next 2-3 years).
To me, the HOF is for the best of the best of the best. I have never watched Utley and thought that of him. There is a difference between being good or even great, and being HOF worthy. Like I said, there are guys in there that I wouldn't have voted for, so I'm sure Utley has a chance depending on how he finishes up, but he wouldn't get my vote. Is Ian Kinsler getting into the HOF? In three less years his stats are close to Utley's. How about Luis Castillo? He has more GG and better numbers in pretty much everything besides HRs, 2Bs, and RBI. How about Placido Polanco? Better numbers than Chase other than HR and RBI and just as much hardware.
To me, since his numbers aren't blowing people away, you can't let him. If you do, then guys like Kinsler and Castillo and Polanco get into the conversation. All good players. So is Utley. Utley is even better than those players. But he isn't in the HOF. Obviously if he smacks 30 HR a year and bats .320 over the next three seasons and wins an MVP or something, then we are having a different conversation. But a couple more sub .300 years with sub 20 HR, fewer SBs and extra base hits etc, he doesn't make it past a year or two on the ballot.
EDIT: The injury thing sucks, but the HOF is for the best of the best, not the guys who COULD HAVE BEEN the best of the best but they got injured. It sucks, but that's the way I would vote and the way I think it should be. Otherwise, you'll have a ton of guys in the HOF and it will become less of a hallowed place.