Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc. [Mid-April Edition]

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Jersey Fan 12

Positive Vibes
Nov 20, 2006
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Jersey Fan 12

Positive Vibes
Nov 20, 2006
7,195
3,123
Not huge news in terms of the overall organizational depth but just saw where Max Newton signed to play in Slovakia.

I thought a 72-point season in the ECHL might have earned an AHL contract somewhere or at least a deal in one of the higher European leagues.
 
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CutOnDime97

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Standout performances from the 2023 World Junior Summer Showcase​

Cutter Gauthier, C, USA (Philadelphia Flyers)​

There are some players that go about their business on the ice and quietly make smart plays, smart reads, and turn in effective outings while not really jumping off of the page. Cutter Gauthier is not one such player. The Flyers’ 2022 first-rounder was a man among boys for the majority of the event. The powerful centre was seeing reps on the wing, but it did nothing to dissuade the belief that this is a player with the size/skill combination needed to push for a tournament MVP. He was skillful with the puck, often attacking the middle of the ice with possession and speed. If there was a 1-on-1 battle that he failed to come away successful, it was a rarity. He made his linemates' lives extremely easy. We’re looking at a front-line player for the American squad and one who staked his claim on that spot with authority this past week.
 

wankstifier

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Jun 19, 2018
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What's the floor comp for Gauthier? I feel like they should sell high on him
 

tnfrs

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Jul 19, 2023
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What's the floor comp for Gauthier? I feel like they should sell high on him
if we got picks back theres probably a very low chance they turn into another Gauthier, hes looking like he could be a solid NHLer soon. It would depend on the return obviously but you dont generally trade away ur #2 prospect before he even signs an ELC when youre just starting a rebuild.

Im not sure who the best comparables are tbh, hes a power forward with a sniper's release but its not incredibly accurate. Hes a volume shooter and will probably work on picking his shots more in the NHL. He can carry the puck but hes not a stand out handler and he doesnt have the best edges or seperation speed, but hes fast enough for the NHL, he can power through a lot of checks so turning him into a Wayne Simmonds at the net will be pretty easy as he gets stronger, he already has a knack for being open in the right places and his passing is under rated when hes on the wall too so hes not just a one trick pony, his overall vision is good but hes a shooter first.
 

mr4tno

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Oct 13, 2017
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I’d say more depends on how he plays. Many examples of power forwards falling off a cliff and carrying large long contracts.
Personally, as a rule, I would not sign anyone past 33-34. Yes, there are exceptions that I would miss out on, but there are many more examples of the cliff diving.....You have to know when to fold, but the Flyers keep doubling down....
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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Personally, as a rule, I would not sign anyone past 33-34. Yes, there are exceptions that I would miss out on, but there are many more examples of the cliff diving.....You have to know when to fold, but the Flyers keep doubling down....
Depends on the quality of the player and their career trajectory.

Voracek was signed to a long-term deal at the right age coming off elite seasons, his decline was faster than expected, exacerbated by bad luck with concussions.
Giroux has maintained a high level at 35. He's a combination of talent and dedication to conditioning - the later is a key when giving out long-term deals.

Both Hayes and JVR are a tier below, and that group tends to decline rapidly after age 32.

Players like Read and Raffl tend to decline at 30, the solid but nothing special starters.

Most players peak between 25-29, the better players start from a higher level and decline slower.

The mistake teams make is to sign a player at 27-28, at their peak, and pay them as if that peak will be sustained into their mid-30s.
The Couts contract was fine, it was an underpay for the first few years and an overpay in the out years with an expected rising cap.
Sometimes you're just unlucky.

One of the best ways to add veteran quality is to identify players who are still good, but overpaid in their out years, trade for them with the original team retaining money and accepting a "bargain price" to dump their contract. This is less risky than signing similar players in FA.
 

Appleyard

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Shoot first goalscorers who are 1st line level but not top ~10 players on earth usually fall off at ~31-32.
Pass first playmakers who are 1st line level but not top ~10 players on earth usually fall off at ~33-34.
And barring a miracle basically 99% of players (even superstars) are washed at age 37 and likely at best a 3rd liner.

Ofc cannot account for injuries... but if as a GM you respect those rough numbers age wise? Then wont have toooo many catastrophies in terms of older players and contracts.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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There's also the "center" effect, if you're a good enough athlete to play center, you can extend your effective career as you slow by moving to wing which requires less skating and defensive responsibilities in most systems. I think really smart players can probably extend their career by compensating for lost speed with positioning and knowing angles. But not sure there are any studies confirming that.

Same on defense, I'd like to see age curves for big mobile D-men (who can shift to more of a defensive role as they age) v smaller mobile D-men.

Would also be interested to see if some scorers maintain offense by cheating on defense (Kane) as they age.
 

mr4tno

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Oct 13, 2017
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Depends on the quality of the player and their career trajectory.

Voracek was signed to a long-term deal at the right age coming off elite seasons, his decline was faster than expected, exacerbated by bad luck with concussions.
Giroux has maintained a high level at 35. He's a combination of talent and dedication to conditioning - the later is a key when giving out long-term deals.

Both Hayes and JVR are a tier below, and that group tends to decline rapidly after age 32.

Players like Read and Raffl tend to decline at 30, the solid but nothing special starters.

Most players peak between 25-29, the better players start from a higher level and decline slower.

The mistake teams make is to sign a player at 27-28, at their peak, and pay them as if that peak will be sustained into their mid-30s.
The Couts contract was fine, it was an underpay for the first few years and an overpay in the out years with an expected rising cap.
Sometimes you're just unlucky.

One of the best ways to add veteran quality is to identify players who are still good, but overpaid in their out years, trade for them with the original team retaining money and accepting a "bargain price" to dump their contract. This is less risky than signing similar players in FA.

So for the for the top 4 listed I would have "won" by not signing Voracek, Hayes and JVR. Obviously, Giroux would have been a loss, which as stated previously, I am prepared to lose as no system is perfect. Regarding Couturier, I don't think it is/was a good contract even at the time of signing. I would rather have paid more for less years, which may have been doable if Hayes, Voracek (via Atkinson) and JVR dollars were available. If not, then I move on every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
 

CutOnDime97

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Mar 29, 2008
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