Series Talk: Pens vs Habs Round 1 Best of Five - Episode 5: Camme toé

[Al Smith]

lol...me too...I’ve represented women who work in those clubs and most have terrible issues, including drug problems...they don’t appeal to me in the least...I don’t like to go to Vegas between the smoke filled interiors and the gambling, however, I do love a good in-person poker game...

Knew a guy who represented several strippers also. They did make good money but it tended to evaporate on drugs and child support issues.

I do like casinos though. Black jack is therapeutic for me and I’ve chatted with lots of interesting people from all over he world while playing. Three consecutive days in Vegas is about my limit though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I question any sort of analysis that has the Habs 4th line as better than the Penguins 4th line, let alone the fact that the chart has Gallagher and Guentzel as equals.

 

[Andy99]

You probably try to cheat in the poker game. It wouldn't surprise me in the least. Always trying to get that edge, right Andy?

uh no...I don’t cheat...I’m a very good bluffer though

 

[Peat]

I question any sort of analysis that has the Habs 4th line as better than the Penguins 4th line, let alone the fact that the chart has Gallagher and Guentzel as equals.

Habs 4th line currently notionally has Domi on it, which is quite the equaliser, and Gallagher's p/60 was only .14 behind Guentzel while with no Geno and he's got miles better relative on-ice results. Not sure either is that egregious.

 

[Ryder71]

uh no...I don’t cheat...I’m a very good bluffer though

Yep, bluffing is part of the game.

 

[Ryder71]

Habs 4th line currently notionally has Domi on it, which is quite the equaliser, and Gallagher's p/60 was only .14 behind Guentzel while with no Geno and he's got miles better relative on-ice results. Not sure either is that egregious.

Then why are we gonna roll them so badly?

 

[Peat]

Then why are we gonna roll them so badly?

Because Gallagher is their best forward and if he was here, he'd be somewhere between 3rd and 5th depending on how you rate him vs Guentzel & Rust (just on this season's form), and Domi's their 4th best forward, and here he'd be about the 9th.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Then why are we gonna roll them so badly?

Crosby, Malkin, better depth throughout the lineup. I think it’s a roll of the dice, though. Teams are going to be rusty and the length makes it more possible for luck, goalie, hot streak, etc. to upset things.

 

[EightyOne]

Who cares who is on the Habs top line? They're all enemies.

For once, I support ZAR

 

[Ryder71]

Because Gallagher is their best forward and if he was here, he'd be somewhere between 3rd and 5th depending on how you rate him vs Guentzel & Rust (just on this season's form), and Domi's their 4th best forward, and here he'd be about the 9th.

Pittsburgh is currently a -195 on the betting line to win this series. I know they're heavy favorites but take those odds bet a few grand and laugh loudly at the Habs feeble attempt to take down the Pens. Even without Crosby we have a 72% probability of victory. With Sid it's near 86%.

 

[Ryder71]

Crosby, Malkin, better depth throughout the lineup. I think it’s a roll of the dice, though. Teams are going to be rusty and the length makes it more possible for luck, goalie, hot streak, etc. to upset things.

I'm not too concerned. Maybe we lose one game, maybe not. I look for one or two close games and two decisive performances where we win going away.

 

[Andy99]

 

[905PENS]

Who's been with Malkin on his line I've been quite busy the past few weeks

 

[Ryder71]

Who's been with Malkin on his line I've been quite busy the past few weeks

Zucker and Rust.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Easy answer: they'll look like the clowns they are.

Julien's system makes these guys look good night in and night out, but 5 games against a contender? Jeff freaking Petry won't look good defensively.

 

[Ryder71]

Easy answer: they'll look like the clowns they are.

Julien's system makes these guys look good night in and night out, but 5 games against a contender? Jeff freaking Petry won't look good defensively.

Sully's a pretty good tactician himself. And our closing speed and ability to take away their time and space, IMO anyhow will be a deciding factor. Keep in mind we have a healthy Guentzel AND Zucker now. Dumo is healed, Marino as well. As long as Letang doesn't get too cute and our goaltending is solid we should win in three or four.

 

[Andy99]

Easy answer: they'll look like the clowns they are.

Julien's system makes these guys look good night in and night out, but 5 games against a contender? Jeff freaking Petry won't look good defensively.

I hope you’re right...

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I hope you’re right...

I most likely am.

These aggregate stats are good to see how and so performs on average. But to predict how a couple of meh players insulated in a VERY defensive system will handle a premiere line? Meh. Petry and Kulak do not get matchs up like that usually.

Danault's line and Weber do so THEY worry me a little. But Petry and Kulak? Nah, there is a reason why the Habs are bottom feeders.

 

[Bingo71]

Well, the Pens are certainly the pre play in round champions thanks to the hype from many here and elsewhere...lol

SHOULD they blow Montreal our of the water? Certainly. But I think many are quick to forget all the WTF playoff moments from this team over the years. I can certainly envision this board next Saturday night wondering WTF just happened after the Habs take game one...

Who will be the scapegoat? Murray? JJ? Sully? Geno?

 

[Andy99]

What are the odds of a Flyer taking out at least one Penguin for the remainder of the POs during the exhibition game tomorrow? If I was a gambler, I’d be taking 2-1 odds...I’ll be surprised if it’s just one player...another reason Sid shouldn’t play tomorrow

 

[Peat]

I most likely am.

These aggregate stats are good to see how and so performs on average. But to predict how a couple of meh players insulated in a VERY defensive system will handle a premiere line? Meh. Petry and Kulak do not get matchs up like that usually.

Danault's line and Weber do so THEY worry me a little. But Petry and Kulak? Nah, there is a reason why the Habs are bottom feeders.

Looking at the stats backs this up a little - Kulak-Petry only had 4 minutes this season vs Geno (which in itself maybe says everything we need to know about whether we even see this match-up) and gave away 2 high danger chances with none back. Did well against us other than that, but still ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.

Looking at Petry's match-ups this season - tbf, he's got a lot of high quality opposition among his most common match-ups (Kucherov & Point, Marner, Kuznetsov, Aho, Larkin, Pastrnak, Tkachuk minor, Ehlers) but he's not done great against those hard quality match-ups. V Bad possession stats against the Tampa Two, good against Marner, average vs Kutznetsov and Aho, v bad against Larkin, good against Pastrnak, bad against Tkachuk, v good against Ehlers... it's not a disreputable standard. Not amazing either.

Looking at who Petry faced vs us this season... lot of Simon and Letang time, went very well for him, lot of Blueger and Marino time, went badly for him, about 10 minutes of McCann and Hornqvist that weren't great possession wise, 9 minutes of Geno that went ill, 9 minutes of Sid that went great, his time against Rust was bad... these are tiny, tiny samples, but if I had to guess, they say Petry will say more Sid than Geno and could do well with it.

Meanwhile Weber played more against Geno than any other Penguin other than Letang and that includes the goalies.

So yeah. Expect Weber vs Malkin, Petry vs Sid.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Looking at the stats backs this up a little - Kulak-Petry only had 4 minutes this season vs Geno (which in itself maybe says everything we need to know about whether we even see this match-up) and gave away 2 high danger chances with none back. Did well against us other than that, but still ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.

Looking at Petry's match-ups this season - tbf, he's got a lot of high quality opposition among his most common match-ups (Kucherov & Point, Marner, Kuznetsov, Aho, Larkin, Pastrnak, Tkachuk minor, Ehlers) but he's not done great against those hard quality match-ups. V Bad possession stats against the Tampa Two, good against Marner, average vs Kutznetsov and Aho, v bad against Larkin, good against Pastrnak, bad against Tkachuk, v good against Ehlers... it's not a disreputable standard. Not amazing either.

Looking at who Petry faced vs us this season... lot of Simon and Letang time, went very well for him, lot of Blueger and Marino time, went badly for him, about 10 minutes of McCann and Hornqvist that weren't great possession wise, 9 minutes of Geno that went ill, 9 minutes of Sid that went great, his time against Rust was bad... these are tiny, tiny samples, but if I had to guess, they say Petry will say more Sid than Geno and could do well with it.

Meanwhile Weber played more against Geno than any other Penguin other than Letang and that includes the goalies.

So yeah. Expect Weber vs Malkin, Petry vs Sid.

Petry vs Sid should also be a cake walk for Sid.

They have one line and one high-quality d-man. They have a great coach and a good system.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Man, I'm so excited. Hockey is back!! Things could still go wrong but Ill take any hockey I can get.

 

[66-30-33]

Hopefully all of them, the season would be over and you wouldn't have anymore to complain about on this topic.

I'd complain about us missing playoffs, not getting the lottery pick and giving our 1st round pick to Guerin. Probably because he wants to have a good relationship with him for future deals.

 

[66-30-33]

I most likely am.

These aggregate stats are good to see how and so performs on average. But to predict how a couple of meh players insulated in a VERY defensive system will handle a premiere line? Meh. Petry and Kulak do not get matchs up like that usually.

Danault's line and Weber do so THEY worry me a little. But Petry and Kulak? Nah, there is a reason why the Habs are bottom feeders.

Pens got swept in the 1st round last playoffs, they have something to play for unlike the Habs who are just lucky to even be getting a chance at the playoffs.