2025 is gonna be very deep, but the expectation of landing quality falls off in round 2 in any year.
In isolation these kinda trades are usually whatever, sure. But if you do enough stockpiling, you eventually hit.
Since 2005:
2nd Addison, Goligoski, Sprong, Blomqvist (hope there)
3rd Letang, Rust, Guentzel, Murray
5th: Muzzin
7th: Puustinen (looking promising)
We also traded many picks away during that time. So if you get serious with loading up, there will probably be some joy.
I also think Dubas will draft better than many GMs.
I did some research awhile back about all of the picks and prospects we gave up since 2005 to see if there were any detrimental impacts. Not knowing how guys were ranked, I think I did the pick # + 5 back. In short, there were no prospects that we've traded away that amounted to anything significant. I believe Sprong was the best goal scorer, but we got a top-pairing dman back for him, so...whatever. Pick wise, the biggest one was the Perron pick that turned into Barzel. There was a 7th that we traded for Kovalev that turned into Dzingle. And then there was a late 1st that we trade for Reaves that if you go back 8 picks, it's Jason Robertson. There may have been one more but I can't remember. Basically, for 19 years we've been trading picks and prospects for roster players and it's easy to see that the guy we got in return was typically worth it. Like the Barzel pick got us Perron who got us Hagelin who was a big part of 16 and 17 so it's hard to be too mad.
The idea that Shero, JR, Hextall, and Dubas have "hemorrhaged picks and prospects" is a bad argument. Not saying that is what you're saying at all, just adding some additional info to your post. I agree that a collection of 1st, 2nd, and 3rds will eventually help. You just have to hope we get lucky and find guys like Aho, Point, Robertson, Guentzel, Murray, etc in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If FSG's directive is to compete and we aren't getting those high 1sts, it will be tough.
I'd be more bothered by it if it was a 1st. But in the 2nd round it's probably gonna be a crapshoot, just like other years.
I don't really wanna prioritize 2025 or 2026 picks that much, since the Pens aren't gonna be contenders by the time those prospects are ready to be impact regulars.
Their ELCs will get wasted.
I want like 2029-2032 1sts-3rds. Their development will at least have a chance to line up with a potential Cup window, if this rebuild is orchestrated properly.
100% but I don't think any GM is willing to project that far. If McDavid leaves and Draisaitl hurts his knee, Oilers could easily be picking 1st OV again come 2029.
Once Sid, Geno, and Letang retire, we are a gutter team. You just hope it works out like in 03-06 where you guys top guys and already have a good collection of mid-20s guys. That's where I worry about Chicago and Bedard. They have Bedard...and little else. You hope Nazar and a couple of these others work out and they will but Bedard could easily be into his mid to late 20s by the time they collect the youthful depth needed. We we got MAF-Malkin-Sid-Staal, we already had guys like Orpik, Army, Letang, Christensen, Talbot, Whitney, etc to support the new core. We hope that is what the likes of Howe, Brunicke, Broz, Ilyin, Pickering can do for us down the line.