Thoughts on Dubas and the upcoming offseason:
I find Dubas to so far be a mixed bag.
- I still think the Karlsson move was great. He got rid of several bad contracts in one go, brought in a player who is still good, and opened up cap space.
- I didn't know much about Graves and cringed at the length of the deal, but he was sold (not just by the team, but by posters on here as well) as someone who could be a complementary defenseman, based on his time with Makar as well as with Marino. Obviously, that was way off, and the fact that this evaluation was so bad is concerning.
- Jarry made me nervous at the time, but he really hasn't been bad at all, and his cap hit isn't pretty well in-line with the level of performance he's brought. There also weren't better options out there at the time.
- Eller has actually been just fine? If they don't move him in the offseason, I'd be fine with it.
- Acciari hasn't been bad, but he also hasn't been good. Mainly, I didn't really see the reason for signing him in the first place. I'll touch more on this a bit further down.
- Nieto is basically worse Acciari, but cheaper and with less term (in terms of my evaluation of his impact, not in terms of the player).
- Nedeljkovic has turned out to be a fantastic signing. No complaints there.
- On paper, the Smith trade was a slam-dunk. A player that has been a good (not great, but good) top six player, and the Pens got him for a third round pick? One they had previously obtained from the Knights for Blueger? There's a reason the majority of responses to this trade were originally positive. I'll get back to how this hasn't worked out further down.
- Then there's the flood of vets for WB/S: Hinostroza, Zohorna, Johnsson, White, Butcher, Hellberg, etc. On the one hand, they help out WB/S, and provide depth. On the other hand, a good number of them have ended up blocking prospects from being able to get more chances on the NHL roster.
- I really, really would have liked to have seen some spots deliberately kept open for young players to make the team, and Dubas didn't do that at all last offseason.
- Dubas should have been more proactive about making moves during the season when it looked like it was headed off the rails early on.
- The various waiver claims are kind of weird? On the one hand, you've got a chance at grabbing a diamond in the rough when a team has an excess at a position, or is mishandling their own player. On the other hand, most of the time, there's a reason the other team was trying to send down that player in the first place. And so far, the players have looked like they were more the latter category than the former.
That said, I do think there are some confounding factors that make it difficult to really evaluate Dubas, for me, and why I think this coming offseason will really tell a better story.
- So many players were underperforming their career averages this year. Including players like Acciari, Nieto, Smith, Rakell - players who were all supposed to help the team be better this year. That really speaks to a problem with coaching.
- Dubas clearly got marching orders that Sullivan was the coach for at least this year (and likely beyond).
- Dubas was clearly given the same marching orders as Hextall, with regards to "keep the core together, make the playoffs, but still rebuild the prospect pool". That's a nearly impossible job for anyone to accomplish, and was basically destined to fail, no matter who took it on.
- When Dubas came in, there's no reason he'd really have a good view into the Pens' prospect pool beyond, "it's not good". So the signings could very well reflect a hedging of bets against any prospect actually being worthwhile. He almost certainly was leaning hard on the coaching staff there. He's now had this season to get to see them play, in training camp, in Wilkes-Barre, and for at least some of them, in Pittsburgh. He should have a much better grasp on which prospects are either ready or close to being ready to taking NHL spots.
It's possible that Dubas started realizing that the wheels had flown off early in the season. And that shuffling the chairs wasn't going to help. Thus, why negotiations with Guentzel stopped. And why he didn't bother making moves during the season. He may have been building a case to make bigger changes during the offseason. If that is the case, then this offseason should indicate one way or another.
Signs I'm looking for:
- Does the coaching staff return intact? I think Sullivan needs to go, but at the very least, make changes to the assistants and in WB/S. But really, Sullivan should go, too.
- Does he leave space for prospects to make the roster next year? Assume O'Connor and Puustinen are now full-time NHLers. Pencil in Eller and Puljujarvi as the "vets" in the bottom six, and then make sure there is room on the roster for at least 2-4 prospects to be on the roster at all times (they can be rotated, but the space should be there for them). This would mean finding ways to unload Smith, Acciari, possibly Rakell as well. (Nieto is cheap enough to waive).
- Does Dubas bring in more young players via trades, or does he bring in a bunch more free agent vets? I wouldn't be opposed to the idea of packaging one of the second round picks with a roster player in order to bring back some quality prospects, for example (I'm assuming the Pens won't have a first round pick).
- Basically, any sign that Dubas hasn't deluded himself into thinking this team is still a contender, but instead is willing to genuinely get younger, with the understanding that a younger team is not going to be a contender right away - and will likely miss the playoffs again next year, for that matter.
Do I think I'll get those signs? I'm not confident of that, no. But there's enough wiggle room right now that I'm not ready to write off Dubas just yet, either. This offseason is huge.
