Salary Cap: Pens '23-'24 Salary Cap Thread: "But if you don't get the President of the Pittsburgh Penguins on that phone, you know what's gonna happen to you?"

[vodeni]

DK's Daily Shot of Penguins: When does this get ugly? Yes, Yes I know It is DK

with all his BS and blemishes, he is the only one in PGH hockey media that puts out legit criticism when its worthy...I know...

PP should be the easiest thing to fix IMO. We have the talent and skills, and honestly, as many have said, finding a reasonable net front presence should not be that difficult.

I'd try out....
Letang - Left
EK - Top
Malkin + Crosby - Right
Carter - net front

I know someone else mentioned Carter too. Even at 38, his legs may be gone, but his body is still there, and the hands should still be pretty good for what needs to be done net front.

Reason I want Letang back is then EK and Letang could rotate around up top when needed. Not to mention Guentzel/Rust/Rakell have been pretty useless out there.

lol...this group would not even be able to set the plays up, they are all the ones that never bother to fight for the 50 50 pucks and squeeze the defenders to maintain position...

 

[SEALBound]

Uh, what? If the 3rd line is on the ice and a defenseman scores a goal, that's still a bottom-6 goal.

People on here have out of touch expectations with what a bottom-6 is supposed to produce because of the Staal and Kessel days. The only issue with production in the bottom-6 right now is the 4th line doesn't have a goal yet, but they're still drawing even for the most part. Getting a bottom-6 that can chip in 50 goals over a full season, especially with the kind of usage/ice time that the bottom-6 is doing, is absolutely reasonable. If the 4th line had even a single goal this year, that's effectively what they'd be on pace to be doing.

We have one goal by a dman - Karlsson and it was with Sid on the ice.

Bottom 6 players have 2 goals. Between 6 guys. Over 8 games. With the 4th line having zero between all three. Staal and Kessel or not, that's not going to cut it long-term.

5v5 stats may look great but guess what...we are 3-5, last in the metro, last in the east (with a game in hand on Buffalo). If you don't want to raise questions, that's fine. But being that we are in last place with some extremely lackluster performing bottom 6 players, I'm going to continue to raise my hand and say it's PART of the problem. We know shitty PPs, goaltending, and coaching is the other half.

 

[molon labe]

Uh, what? If the 3rd line is on the ice and a defenseman scores a goal, that's still a bottom-6 goal.

People on here have out of touch expectations with what a bottom-6 is supposed to produce because of the Staal and Kessel days. The only issue with production in the bottom-6 right now is the 4th line doesn't have a goal yet, but they're still drawing even for the most part. Getting a bottom-6 that can chip in 50 goals over a full season, especially with the kind of usage/ice time that the bottom-6 is doing, is absolutely reasonable. If the 4th line had even a single goal this year, that's effectively what they'd be on pace to be doing.

Not when you tally year-end goals. It can count however you want it to to defend a point you're making - but total goals on a season are always quite telling. I spent a few minutes this Summer talking about this exact point - and how the team needs X production from X player/line in order to compete going forward.

Essentially if the entire bottom 6 paces for something like 50-60 goals we will need our goalie tandem performing at 2.9 GPG to get into a playoff spot. That includes the normal top 6 production AND defense production. It's the actual goal count.

Last year we netted 262 goals/82. That's ~3.2 goals per game..and good enough for 17th in the league. (272 the year prior)...so if we assume these totals for THIS year...:
Sid, Guentz: 60 goals
Geno, Rust: 50 goals
Smith, Rakell: 40 goals (they fluctuate pretty drastically on a given year)
Karlsson: Assume 20? Fluctuates as well but should do better here.
Letang: 10 goals

That's 180 goals. Maybe if everything goes great you get another 10-20 goals from the Sid/Guentz combo or the Geno/Rust this year. Call it 200 as a gambling man. We're needing 62 more goals to tally the same as last year where we were a fringe playoff team? Pacing for 30 goals from your entire bottom 6 is flat out unacceptable even if they're great at the penalty kill. NOT when you're going to ice a 3GAA goalie and give up high danger. Team would need to switch to the trap if we want to rely soley on the top 6 to win every night since their production is going to come in waves.

Essentially you either need balance or a different system. What we have right now is just not going to be good enough unless a flukey situation happens where when we win, it's marginal, and when we lose, it's blowouts. Just talking your standard route to the playoffs here not actual playoff performance - since that's getting ahead of things.

 

[chethejet]

This is way to early to make any judgements in the Pens. To me 10 games and then 20 games will be a better indicator of things. I do think Dubas will make a move or two by then. Pens like Shea on D and I think POJ is moved. Dubas probably wants a physical presence as well on the first line as Smith seems to be that on Malkins line. Smith moved up to PP for that physical play. I think Dubas will make a big trade here to do exactly that.

 

[Pancakes]

This is way to early to make any judgements in the Pens. To me 10 games and then 20 games will be a better indicator of things. I do think Dubas will make a move or two by then. Pens like Shea on D and I think POJ is moved. Dubas probably wants a physical presence as well on the first line as Smith seems to be that on Malkins line. Smith moved up to PP for that physical play. I think Dubas will make a big trade here to do exactly that.

Thanksgiving is the benchmark as far as I'm concerned. If you're not in at Thanksgiving you're usually out by the end of the year.

So time is already rapidly running out. Get it together this month or not at all

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

This is way to early to make any judgements in the Pens. To me 10 games and then 20 games will be a better indicator of things. I do think Dubas will make a move or two by then. Pens like Shea on D and I think POJ is moved. Dubas probably wants a physical presence as well on the first line as Smith seems to be that on Malkins line. Smith moved up to PP for that physical play. I think Dubas will make a big trade here to do exactly that.

While I understand the sentiment with most other scenarios, this baffles me.

We've been talking about the EXACT SAME THINGS for the past 4 years. Someone unearth some old threads and while the players change, the same structural things are occurring.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

lol...this group would not even be able to set the plays up, they are all the ones that never bother to fight for the 50 50 pucks and squeeze the defenders to maintain position...

Crosby/Malkin don't fight for 50/50 pucks? I actually wanted to get rid of the dead wood on the PP, which honestly is Rust/Guenzel/Rakell at this point.

Besides...
I feel it's more about playing keep-away and setting up a decent shot, either point, bumper, high slot, low around the net. You back all that up with goalie screens, and tips.

Everybody on my list, except for Carter, can gain the blue line, can setup, can pass, and can shoot.

To be fair, there is more than 1 way to run a PP.

What surprises me is Letang seems to be running a better Unit2 PP thank EK is running Unit1.

 

[vodeni]

Crosby/Malkin don't fight for 50/50 pucks? I actually wanted to get rid of the dead wood on the PP, which honestly is Rust/Guenzel/Rakell at this point.

Besides...
I feel it's more about playing keep-away and setting up a decent shot, either point, bumper, high slot, low around the net. You back all that up with goalie screens, and tips.

Everybody on my list, except for Carter, can gain the blue line, can setup, can pass, and can shoot.

To be fair, there is more than 1 way to run a PP.

What surprises me is Letang seems to be running a better Unit2 PP thank EK is running Unit1.

no they don't, at least not hard enough, every time the puck is on the wall I expect our PP to be broken...once its set we are fine...and no letang is not running anything better than EK, he is only there for 20 seconds here or there, so there is nothing to compare...EK could have done better, some of his shots are suprisingly inaccuarate..he is also having a problem setting up Geno (Geno is setting him up fine...), but the main issue here is still cross passes, losing face offs and wall battles and NO SCREENS...

 

[Empoleon8771]

We have one goal by a dman - Karlsson and it was with Sid on the ice.

Bottom 6 players have 2 goals. Between 6 guys. Over 8 games. With the 4th line having zero between all three. Staal and Kessel or not, that's not going to cut it long-term.

And they have 4 goals without either Crosby or Malkin on the ice, and if neither of those two are on the ice, you can reasonably describe that as a "bottom-6 goal".

5v5 stats may look great but guess what...we are 3-5, last in the metro, last in the east (with a game in hand on Buffalo). If you don't want to raise questions, that's fine. But being that we are in last place with some extremely lackluster performing bottom 6 players, I'm going to continue to raise my hand and say it's PART of the problem. We know shitty PPs, goaltending, and coaching is the other half.

They are 3-5 for reasons completely unrelated to their 5v5 production, because their 5v5 production is among the top of the league.

 

[pistolpete11]

PP should be the easiest thing to fix IMO. We have the talent and skills, and honestly, as many have said, finding a reasonable net front presence should not be that difficult.

I'd try out....
Letang - Left
EK - Top
Malkin + Crosby - Right
Carter - net front

I know someone else mentioned Carter too. Even at 38, his legs may be gone, but his body is still there, and the hands should still be pretty good for what needs to be done net front.

Reason I want Letang back is then EK and Letang could rotate around up top when needed. Not to mention Guentzel/Rust/Rakell have been pretty useless out there.

That was a me.

Unless they try it and it fails spectacularly. Then that was some other moron.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I half-jokingly said they should throw Carter in the slot on the PP so he can use his size to screen the goalie, and if he takes a slapshot to the knee, ankle or foot, that's just an open roster spot and cap relief baybeeeee. (I wasn't really joking)

 

[vodeni]

the last win against Avs, that I heard some im media refering to as "perfect game":

xG 1.9:3.2 HDCF:HDCA 4:13

so basically goaltending

just saying...

 

[Empoleon8771]

I really think people here are just completely out to lunch with what a bottom-6 is supposed to provide. So far this year, the Penguins have a 4-4 goal differential without Crosby and Malkin on the ice. The bottom-6 is filled with low cost defensive players that are being played in low minutes with a massive defensive role. What kind of results are you expecting from that kind of group?

The bottom-6 production "issues" can be summed up as "the 4th line doesn't have a goal yet", but they're also not getting scored on. The overall impact on games for the 4th line is neutral, because a 0-0 goal differential doesn't help or hurt your team. The 3rd line impact is mostly neutral as well, with Eller having a 4-3 goal differential with 2 of those goals happening right after a PK (one was Smith-Eller-Rust and one was Malkin-Eller-Nieto).

I just fundamentally do not understand how people can act like the bottom-6 not producing enough is even remotely up there on issues with this team. The bottom-6 has generally had a neutral impact on the team, they're not scoring a ton but they're not getting scored on either. Their analytics results are also very good for their usage. For what they're paid and how they're being used, how can you reasonably be upset and expect more?

And now compare that to the powerplay. The powerplay is 31st in the NHL after adding Karlsson and has 2 powerplay goals in 8 games. Which one of those seems like a bigger issue, your cheap and defensive bottom-6 drawing even or your star studded powerplay being nearly dead last in the NHL? It's not even close.

 

[Gurglesons]

My new thing is blaming Sullivan for Joe Thornton getting traded out of Boston.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

the last win against Avs, that I heard some im media refering to as "perfect game":

xG 1.9:3.2 HDCF:HDCA 4:13

so basically goaltending

just saying...

This probably deserves it's own thread, but I hate SV% or any other metric related to goalies. The factor that is most important to me is "timely saves". And that's almost impossible to measure.

Jarry did that vs the Avs. Pens were up 1 and 2 nothing, but the chances against, Jarry shut the door and allowed the Pens to build their lead. He gives up 1 goal in that game and I bet the entire team crumbles and eventually takes the L.

Sat night the Pens are again controlling play. They get down 2 nothing. Pens get a goal and they believe they still have a chance

Well once that 3rd goal (entirely stoppable) goes in, I turned off the game. You cannot allow goals like that. Especially this team that is already on thin margins

 

[Ginormousthumbs]

#trusttheprocess

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

And now compare that to the powerplay. The powerplay is 31st in the NHL after adding Karlsson and has 2 powerplay goals in 8 games. Which one of those seems like a bigger issue, your cheap and defensive bottom-6 drawing even or your star studded powerplay being nearly dead last in the NHL? It's not even close.

It's not a binary choice though. The way the NHL is played is that you expect a tiny amount more of production from the bottom 6.

So yes the PP is a huge issue, but it's not the only one.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's not a binary choice though. The way the NHL is played is that you expect a tiny amount more of production from the bottom 6.

So yes the PP is a huge issue, but it's not the only one.

I feel like goal differential is a lot more important, though. It doesn't matter if you're scoring a goal a game if you're also giving up a goal a game. Again, the Penguins are 7th in the NHL in 5v5 goals and 5v5 goal rates. How is that not good enough?

If you want more production out of the bottom-6, you shouldn't be spending like 80% of your cap on your top-6 F and top-4 D. For the money they have spent in their bottom-6 and for the role/ice time the bottom-6 is being used in, they're doing exactly what they should be doing.

The team's 5v5 production is just not an issue in my eyes, it's among the top in the league and would be even better if the 4th line would start to chip in here and there. It is far down the list of reasons why this team is 3-5 to start the year.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

My new thing is blaming Sullivan for Joe Thornton getting traded out of Boston.

Between this and the Hinestroza thing, I'm ready for the pixies deep dive into the six degrees of Mike Sullivan.

 

[Darren McCord]

I really think people here are just completely out to lunch with what a bottom-6 is supposed to provide. So far this year, the Penguins have a 4-4 goal differential without Crosby and Malkin on the ice. The bottom-6 is filled with low cost defensive players that are being played in low minutes with a massive defensive role. What kind of results are you expecting from that kind of group?

The bottom-6 production "issues" can be summed up as "the 4th line doesn't have a goal yet", but they're also not getting scored on. The overall impact on games for the 4th line is neutral, because a 0-0 goal differential doesn't help or hurt your team. The 3rd line impact is mostly neutral as well, with Eller having a 4-3 goal differential with 2 of those goals happening right after a PK (one was Smith-Eller-Rust and one was Malkin-Eller-Nieto).

I just fundamentally do not understand how people can act like the bottom-6 not producing enough is even remotely up there on issues with this team. The bottom-6 has generally had a neutral impact on the team, they're not scoring a ton but they're not getting scored on either. Their analytics results are also very good for their usage. For what they're paid and how they're being used, how can you reasonably be upset and expect more?

And now compare that to the powerplay. The powerplay is 31st in the NHL after adding Karlsson and has 2 powerplay goals in 8 games. Which one of those seems like a bigger issue, your cheap and defensive bottom-6 drawing even or your star studded powerplay being nearly dead last in the NHL? It's not even close.

Aren’t they the same root tho. Coaching wants this bottom 6 and this power play.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Aren’t they the same root tho. Coaching wants this bottom 6 and this power play.

You can basically do that with any sort of issue on the team to get the root down to Sullivan.

Idk I just can't get huffy about any component of 5v5 production when their 5v5 production as a team is like the best aspect of their results so far. The team is pretty much doing exactly what it is designed to be doing at 5v5, the top-6 is putting up a huge amount of points in a heavy offensive role and the bottom-6 is eating the shitty defensive minutes and drawing even in them.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I feel like goal differential is a lot more important, though. It doesn't matter if you're scoring a goal a game if you're also giving up a goal a game. Again, the Penguins are 7th in the NHL in 5v5 goals and 5v5 goal rates. How is that not good enough?

If you want more production out of the bottom-6, you shouldn't be spending like 80% of your cap on your top-6 F and top-4 D. For the money they have spent in their bottom-6 and for the role/ice time the bottom-6 is being used in, they're doing exactly what they should be doing.

The team's 5v5 production is just not an issue in my eyes, it's among the top in the league and would be even better if the 4th line would start to chip in here and there. It is far down the list of reasons why this team is 3-5 to start the year.

I recognize and understand your points, but I'm unsure if you are promoting/supporting Sully's system or not?

The concoction of this team and it's success hinges on EVERYTHING falling into place. Meaning the top 6 needs to score and the bottom 6 needs to hold serve.

Well what happens when the top 6 is snakebit on a given night or the bottom 6 gives up 3? That's why this setup is bound to fail over the long term. It is not a successful configuration. If you have a particular opponent in the playoffs that would generate wins in a short sample size, sure go ahead and silo those roles. But over 82 games? Yea you're gonna have a bad time with such a rote approach

 

[Gurglesons]

Between this and the Hinestroza thing, I'm ready for the pixies deep dive into the six degrees of Mike Sullivan.

The Hino thing was directly from Getzoff.

Joe Thornton did call out Sullivan in 05-06 about the trade, but he largely took it back in the finals.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I recognize and understand your points, but I'm unsure if you are promoting/supporting Sully's system or not?

The concoction of this team and it's success hinges on EVERYTHING falling into place. Meaning the top 6 needs to score and the bottom 6 needs to hold serve.

Well what happens when the top 6 is snakebit on a given night or the bottom 6 gives up 3? That's why this setup is bound to fail over the long term. It is not a successful configuration. If you have a particular opponent in the playoffs that would generate wins in a short sample size, sure go ahead and silo those roles. But over 82 games? Yea you're gonna have a bad time with such a rote approach

What does Sullivan have to do with anything here? I'm purely talking about the results they've given as a team. I'm not referring to Sullivan's system whatsoever here.

The team is performing exactly as it's structured to perform right now. Mad about the structure of the team not being a sustainable structure? Whatever, but that's not the point of what I'm talking about.

The bottom-6 is making $10 million between 6 players, mostly because they literally do not have any more money to spend there. If you're expecting a bottom-6 that can produce well (at least well enough to compensate for the top-6 being snake bit) and while playing in the role/usage you're going to get, you're going to be wildly disappointed. That's what I'm talking about when I say people here have wildly unreasonable expectations about what a bottom-6 is supposed to be.

If you want a bottom-6 that can do all of this:

1. Provide strong secondary scoring and be able to compensate for the top-6 struggling
2. Have players who can step into top-6 roles seamlessly in case of an injury
3. Be able to eat some of the shittier defensive minutes that Crosby and Malkin shouldn't be playing and win their matchups on the scoreboard.
4. Not get any powerplay time and mostly get PKing time because of who the top-6 has.

You're spending a hell of a lot more than $10 million to get that.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

What does Sullivan have to do with anything here? I'm purely talking about the results they've given as a team. I'm not referring to Sullivan's system whatsoever here.

The team is performing exactly as it's structured to perform right now. Mad about the structure of the team not being a sustainable structure? Whatever, but that's not the point of what I'm talking about.

The bottom-6 is making $10 million between 6 players, mostly because they literally do not have any more money to spend there. If you're expecting a bottom-6 that can produce well (at least well enough to compensate for the top-6 being snake bit) and while playing in the role/usage you're going to get, you're going to be wildly disappointed. That's what I'm talking about when I say people here have wildly unreasonable expectations about what a bottom-6 is supposed to be.

I'm asking that question bc I think there's a crossing of wires between what you're saying is occurring (which I agree with) and others taking it as an endorsement of Sully's approach.

You kinda touched on it in your 2nd paragraph and that's where my argument angle is coming from. I don't think this model is successful long term. You're like "I'm just stating what is occurring on the ice and it falls in line with expectations"

Does that make sense?