I had two beer league games last night and my phone was low from refreshing so many damn times but after I got back and saw the trade and then all of the reactions, I wanted to sleep on it and then decide. As opposed to coming here and showing my bare ass like so many of you did.
This is a situation where frustration may be sitting in but it's our fault. We took the tweets that the price was high and we started formulating what we thought we should be getting back. When I would post stuff like Hogs+Lekkerimaki+1st, I knew deep down that was a major, unrealistic ask. But as teams we in on him, it begins to build this anticipation that we get that once-in-a-lifetime holy shit return where we are saying, "wtf was that GM thinking!"
In reality, not only was that not going to but it didn't come. Penguins also did not grant extension talks prior to the trade. That does hurt value a bit because now, teams have to treat Jake as a true rental. That's fine but what should come with that is an adjustment with our expectations as to what the return will be.
Dubas said two things: 1. The team needs to get younger. 2. He wanted prospects over picks. He accomplished both of those things. It was also said he wanted a NHL roster player, a prospect, and a 1st. He got that. Just because it wasn't the names we arbitrarily decided it should be, doesn't mean it's a "failure". This trade is really about perspective but first let's look at who we got:
1. Bunting. NHL player. Helps now. Slots in with Sid or Malkin. I really wanted Bunting in the off-season as I thought he brought exactly what the team was missing - that physical, shit-disturbing energy, and he can pot a goal every now and then. That is still a major need for us. He's not going to replace what Jake brought but the truth is, no one is. We simply cannot expect to have a 40g scorer in return for our 40g scorer. As an initial piece, I'm okay with it. That said, if they turned around and flipped him today, I wouldn't lose sleep.
2. Vasili Ponomarev. 2020 2nd round pick. 53ov. 5'10, 180lbs. From what I gathered, he challenged Drury in camp but got hurt and Drury seized the opportunity. 2 NHL games, 2 pts and he's put up 29pts in 41 AHL games which puts him at the 3rd leading scorer by PPG (he's played 39 while others played 46 and 51). Plenty of Canes fans were really disappointed to lose him.
3. Ville Koivunen. 2021 2nd round pick. 51ov. 5'11 161lbs. 55pts in 57gp in Finlands top league - Liiga. Leading scorer on his team at 20yo.
4. Cruz Lucius. 2022 4th round pick. 124 ov. 6'1 184lbs. 31pt in 31gp in the UofWisconsin. Leading scorer on his team as a 19yo. In 21, went to the WJC-u18 and potted 8pts in 6gp.
5. Conditional 1st. Let's assume this will be a 2nd and the 1st will be gravy.
6. 5th. WGAF.
Even though it's not Morrow, Nadeau, Nikishin, these are still three very good prospects for us. Ponomarev can play for us now. Koivenen can easily come over next year. Lucius may need another 1-2 years in the NCAA but he is trending extremely well as a sophomore. These three provide a major boost to our prospect group. We had 5-6 guys that are hopeful with only 1 that's a solid prospect - Yager, Pickering, Blomqvist, Murashov...then Ilyin then...? So yeah, getting this crop of young guys back for a rental is quite reasonable. It's not Hogs+Lekky or Othmann+1st but this is also a far cry from Kenny Agostino+Ben Hanowski+1st for Iginla.
Again, this is about perspective. We got three prospects who were 2nd, 2nd, and 4th round picks. Not terrible. If the trade has:
Jake for Bunting + 24 2nd + 25 2nd + 26 4th + conditional 24 1st + conditional 24 5th - I'm sure a lot of people here would be like "Damn!!! Look at the haul! Holy crap!" But that, in essence is what we got except we have a crystal ball into the D+1/2/3 seasons of the 2nd, 2nd, and 4th. And we know they are doing well. And again, this is all for a rental. A rental that can 100% be resigned if Pittsburgh if he so chooses.
The home run is if Jake returns and you can put Bunting on the 3rd line.
For now, I'm not as down on this trade as some. While I will express disappointment that the "we prefer quality over quantity" wasn't necessarily followed, I'm not going to act like there are all a bunch of throwaway pieces because they are not. With any trade involving picks, there's always risk. In my analysis of picks we've given away, only a small fraction (like 2 total) are "regrettable," but one got us Perron, who got us Hagelin, who was instrumental in the cup wins. So to get these three and seeing how they are trending, I'm okay with it.
I will not be jumping off any cliffs or bridges nor will sit here and bemoan Dubas.
