Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[KrisLetAngry]

I'm also concerned that Bunting is far too reliable on excellent playmakers to score.

How much of his production is because of playing with Matthews and Marner? As a late-blooming power forward with a short history in the NHL, I think that's something to be mindful of.

I think he's that 3rd wheel type and why he is under 5 million. He has flaws but also produces with top 6 talent.

We have that talent.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

When Rakell wasn't playing with Crosby or Malkin, he had a 31% offensive zone start% in 125 minutes. I don't think Rakell being on L3 would change Sullivan's usage of L3 at all.

Maybe. Depends on the offensive ability of the new 3C and what Sullivan thinks of him.
I do think missing the playoffs and Dubas coming onboard is gonna lead to Sully changing player usage to an extent. There's gonna be a lot more conversations about playing youth, like Nylander and Puustinen. Dubas is huge on the farm being contributors.
By the time October rolls around, Sullivan will have had 5+ months to re-assess the wisdom of using the bottom 6 the way he does. 5+ months to look at what failed.

 

[Peat]

I'm also concerned that Bunting is far too reliable on excellent playmakers to score.

How much of his production is because of playing with Matthews and Marner? As a late-blooming power forward with a short history in the NHL, I think that's something to be mindful of.

If Sid and Geno aren't still excellent playmakers next season, it doesn't really matter who we sign except what we can then sell them for.



I think in general I don't want Bunting. I'll be happy enough if he comes, but I'd rather that, unless they can land an excellent piece, they leave a top six place open as a way to lure in undercosted forwards with "it could be you". It's a risky move but if it pays off, you have great depth again and maybe are in a position to dream big again.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Idk I see some pretty clear talent here. From everything I can tell, he's a talented player that plays with an edge. A ton of his goals are from him going to the dirty areas and cleaning up garbage.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

If Sid and Geno aren't still excellent playmakers next season, it doesn't really matter who we sign except what we can then sell them for.



I think in general I don't want Bunting. I'll be happy enough if he comes, but I'd rather that, unless they can land an excellent piece, they leave a top six place open as a way to lure in undercosted forwards with "it could be you". It's a risky move but if it pays off, you have great depth again and maybe are in a position to dream big again.

Thing is nothing wrong with putting Bunting on the 3rd line. TORONTO did that at times.
We won't owe anything to him.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Too bad the Penguins don't have any of those on their team.

I am superbly not concerned about how Bunting would perform here because he's being put in a terrific position to succeed here. I would expect Zucker-like production from Bunting if you played him with Malkin and Rakell/Rust for a full season.

What are the odds, given the injury history of those star players, that they'll play all 82 games?

It's not so much Bunting, himself, that concerns me. It's the cost. You compared the potential deal for Bunting to that of Mason Marchment.

Marchment just scored 12 goals and 19 assists in 68 games for Dallas. That is six goals and 16 points fewer than he had the year before in just 54 games. That's not nearly enough production for $4.5-5 million, and I worry that's what could happen with Bunting.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What are the odds, given the injury history of those star players, that they'll play all 82 games?

It's not so much Bunting, himself, that concerns me. It's the cost. You compared the potential deal for Bunting to that of Mason Marchment.

Marchment just scored 12 goals and 19 assists in 68 games for Dallas. That is six goals and 16 points fewer than he had the year before in just 54 games. That's not nearly enough production for $4.5-5 million, and I worry that's what could happen with Bunting.

Marchment's most common linemate last year was Seguin, who's barely a 50 point player at this point. His most common linemate in Florida the year before was Reinhart, who had a PPG season last year.

So yeah, Bunting's production will fall if he goes from playing with a PPG player to a 50 point player. But the Penguins are going to be playing him with a PPG player for at least 80% of games.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I mean, I wanted to take a chance on Bunting after his brief success in Arizona. And, I mean, I still want to take a chance on Bunting after his extended success in Toronto.

It's not my money but I would like him closer to $4M than $5M. But it was pointed out to me that his production is similar -- if not slightly better -- than Rakell.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also, can't you apply that "what would they produce away from Crosby or Malkin" card to Rust as well?

 

[Peat]

Maybe. Depends on the offensive ability of the new 3C and what Sullivan thinks of him.
I do think missing the playoffs and Dubas coming onboard is gonna lead to Sully changing player usage to an extent. There's gonna be a lot more conversations about playing youth, like Nylander and Puustinen. Dubas is huge on the farm being contributors.
By the time October rolls around, Sullivan will have had 5+ months to re-assess the wisdom of using the bottom 6 the way he does. 5+ months to look at what failed.

Kampf had 27% offensive zone faceoff starts. Kerfoot, who I think was L3 all season, had 41%. I don't think Dubas' philosophy is much different to Sullivan's here, he simply had better players who didn't get penned in their own zone all the time.

Thing is nothing wrong with putting Bunting on the 3rd line. TORONTO did that at times.
We won't owe anything to him.

It's not whether we'll do it, it's whether players believe we'll do it often. Put yourself in the shoes of Connor Brown or Max Comtois or whoever.

Pitch A from the agent: "Hey, Pittsburgh are interested at Xm, they've got a pretty set looking top 6 as there's 4 wingers that have team backing but I'm sure there'll be chances due to injury and form, what do you think"

Pitch B from the agent: "Hey, Pittsburgh are interested at Xm + 500k (because they didn't spend 5m-ish on Bunting) and there's an open gap in the top six from the looks of it, what do you think"

B is more attractive, right?

What are the odds, given the injury history of those star players, that they'll play all 82 games?

It's not so much Bunting, himself, that concerns me. It's the cost. You compared the potential deal for Bunting to that of Mason Marchment.

Marchment just scored 12 goals and 19 assists in 68 games for Dallas. That is six goals and 16 points fewer than he had the year before in just 54 games. That's not nearly enough production for $4.5-5 million, and I worry that's what could happen with Bunting.

There's a very limited number of 5m wingers who aren't going to struggle if there's injuries though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kampf had 27% offensive zone faceoff starts. Kerfoot, who I think was L3 all season, had 41%. I don't think Dubas' philosophy is much different to Sullivan's here, he simply had better players who didn't get penned in their own zone all the time.

This is actually a big reason why I've been pushing Kampf and have shown interest in Kerfoot in the past. Both have played well in the kind of usage that Sullivan is going to want to use his 3rd line in.

 

[Gurglesons]

Kampf had 27% offensive zone faceoff starts. Kerfoot, who I think was L3 all season, had 41%. I don't think Dubas' philosophy is much different to Sullivan's here, he simply had better players who didn't get penned in their own zone all the time.




It's not whether we'll do it, it's whether players believe we'll do it often. Put yourself in the shoes of Connor Brown or Max Comtois or whoever.

Pitch A from the agent: "Hey, Pittsburgh are interested at Xm, they've got a pretty set looking top 6 as there's 4 wingers that have team backing but I'm sure there'll be chances due to injury and form, what do you think"

Pitch B from the agent: "Hey, Pittsburgh are interested at Xm + 500k (because they didn't spend 5m-ish on Bunting) and there's an open gap in the top six from the looks of it, what do you think"

B is more attractive, right?



There's a very limited number of 5m wingers who aren't going to struggle if there's injuries though.

So what you are saying is sign Connor Brown FIRST.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

@Peat I don't disagree with the point of how to bring players in but can't we make that argument for every UFA? Realistically we are looking at high end middle 6 players. I do not see us adding an elite talent at forward. We also have holes. I'd rather target 2 middle 6 forwards or maybe 3.

Bunting Barbashev is at my top.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Also, can't you apply that "what would they produce away from Crosby or Malkin" card to Rust as well?

I mean, I'm on the "convince Rust to waive his NMC and trade him" train, so....

 

[Empoleon8771]

Okay so Saros isn't being traded.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Okay so Saros isn't being traded.

Basically saying he's here unless an overpayment happens.

 

[Gurglesons]

Okay so Saros isn't being traded.

Or he is to a team that has those assets. Pretty easy deal for LA if they want to pull the trigger.

 

[TimmyD]

Okay so Saros isn't being traded.

Lol… I understand coming at it from the perspective of “we don’t have to trade this player, so we are going to set a high asking price.” But that package gets you pretty much any star player (outside of a select few) you could want… so yeah Saros isn’t going anywhere if that’s what Nashville is expecting

 

[Empoleon8771]

Or he is to a team that has those assets. Pretty easy deal for LA if they want to pull the trigger.

You'd have to be on drugs to pay that price for any goalie though.

LA has also already traded their 2023 1st for Gavrikov, plus they traded their 2022 1st for Fiala.

 

[Peat]

@Peat I don't disagree with the point of how to bring players in but can't we make that argument for every UFA? Realistically we are looking at high end middle 6 players. I do not see us adding an elite talent at forward. We also have holes. I'd rather target 2 middle 6 forwards or maybe 3.

Bunting Barbashev is at my top.

I guess my point is we only have one desirable slot for a high end middle six winger, and probably only enough money for one too.

And as such, I would rather gamble on signing a lot of guys that could be high end by offering a little more than others, than putting it all on one Bunting or Barbashev. Are Bunting and Barbashev safer bets? Yeah, but I think the Pens need a home run summer, so let's swing big.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Okay so Saros isn't being traded.

I'd have a hard time paying that for ANY goalie. Saros is a tier below the top end guys, so that takes him off the market if that's the price.

 

[Andy99]

I guess my point is we only have one desirable slot for a high end middle six winger, and probably only enough money for one too.

And as such, I would rather gamble on signing a lot of guys that could be high end by offering a little more than others, than putting it all on one Bunting or Barbashev. Are Bunting and Barbashev safer bets? Yeah, but I think the Pens need a home run summer, so let's swing big.

Who would you target that qualifies in your mind as “swinging big?”

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Kampf had 27% offensive zone faceoff starts. Kerfoot, who I think was L3 all season, had 41%. I don't think Dubas' philosophy is much different to Sullivan's here, he simply had better players who didn't get penned in their own zone all the time.

Even 41% would be a departure from what Sullivan was doing.
That's a 14% boost on what Carter and Blueger got.
Doesn't sound like much, but over the course of a full season that's pretty big.

I think in Toronto's case they are more justified in deploying the top 6 like we did. They carry hard enough to make it worth it. They are stronger defensively and come out with larger net gains for the team.
Our best line, that were given everything they needed to carry, only managed to squeeze out a +7 on the season. It's just not worth the sacrifice. We need to win through balance next year. Malkin may not reach 70 points. Sid is supremely unlikely to have an encore of that even-strength performance. Zucker's gonna be worse if he returns.

There's gonna be a heavy onus on the bottom 6 to help compensate for this.

 

[SherogoesHAM]

Think the Pens need to roll the dice with Joel Blomqvist and Desmith in net. Use the available cap to build out depth at forward. If the forward and defensive group are strong, they can carry you to the deadline and can get a goalie then if need be. Signing a Coin Flip goalie now for too long and too much is a death sentence and keeps the forward group thin.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I guess my point is we only have one desirable slot for a high end middle six winger, and probably only enough money for one too.

And as such, I would rather gamble on signing a lot of guys that could be high end by offering a little more than others, than putting it all on one Bunting or Barbashev. Are Bunting and Barbashev safer bets? Yeah, but I think the Pens need a home run summer, so let's swing big.

As much as I'd like a home runner. Those involve assets we just might not have. The only thing we have and have plenty of is cap space and I'm trying to weaponize it.

I think are third line needs to be better by going after let's say Bunting Barbashev and let's throw Brown in there for 13 to 14 million.

Now we have a 3rd line spot and a 4th line spot left for forwards

GCRak
Bunting Malkin rust
Brown barbashev slot
Slot phoeling Carter

That third line has potential.