Player Discussion Pavel Zacha

[arider1990]

Brandon Carlo is going to be making 6 million dollars to get dunked on by the Leafs top-6 for eternity, and I am, unfortunately, here for it.

The same top 6 that had 1 goal for when he was on the ice and it was a PP goal at that. This take is horrendous

 

[bruinshoper]

Brandon Carlo is going to be making 6 million dollars to get dunked on by the Leafs top-6 for eternity, and I am, unfortunately, here for it.

I feel like you’re trolling… I HOPE your trolling?

 

[The Andrew Peeke Fan]

The same top 6 that had 1 goal for when he was on the ice and it was a PP goal at that. This take is horrendous

He sure was on the ice for it!

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

the way I judge deals like this is I apply my own "Michael Ryder scale". Basically is this deal better, worse, or comparable to Michael Ryder's $4m cap hit when they won the Cup in 2011. I find this to be a good comp for a few reasons:
Ryder was the prototypical middle 6 forward who does one or 2 things pretty well but lacks consistency and doesn't do enough to solidify a top 6 role. But the Cup run proved that you can absolutely win with limited guys like him in the lineup making whatever % of the cap he was making at the time (7.05% at the time of signing). Ryder was often called overpaid at the time and most reasonable people (IMO) simply argued that $4m was the going rate for what a guy like him brought.

Fast forward to today: Zacha just signed a deal that's 5.76% of the cap at the time of signing. So the question is does Zacha bring as much or more to the table as Michael Ryder in 2011?

He hasn't demonstrated the raw offensive ceiling that Ryder showed in bursts, but other than that i'd say Zacha brings a lot more to the table. He can play any situation, brings size and is younger than Ryder was when he signed that $4m deal. And he does this all for a significantly lower cap %. I also suspect he has untapped offensive potential that Ryder maybe never had. A full season playing 2C and he might put up 60+ points and make the deal look like a steal. The rest of his game is pretty repeatable IMO.

Anyway the above is only partially serious b/c I recognize this is far from scientific but the general idea is that with these middle 6 role player type contracts I look to past examples to decide if the deal feels reasonable and I think this one totally passes the sniff test.

Actually an addendum to your numbers, while correct at the time of signing, the year they won, Ryder's 4M was 4M/59.4M cap (or 6.67% of the cap) in 2011.

So Zach @ 4.65M / Estimated 83.5 will be ~5.5% of the cap next year and slowly decreasing each year.

Basically agreeing that I think this contract can be very favorable as long as Zacha continues to contribute.

 

[HustleB]

Brandon Carlo is going to be making 6 million dollars to get dunked on by the Leafs top-6 for eternity, and I am, unfortunately, here for it.

I'm afraid I have to disagree with your takes on Carlo, and it frustrates me more in the Zacha thread. But what are you referencing with 6 million? Brandon Carlo makes 4.1 M per year through 2026/2027.

Brandon Carlo | NHL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Brandon Carlo contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

By the way, I thought Zacha was outstanding in his first game post-contract. I like the deal today, and I think it has a chance to be great.

 

[missingchicklet]

Even if the Bs overpaid a little for Zacha, which in no way do I think they did, I'd rather overpay for a player in his mid-20s trending up than overpay for a player in his 30s. DS has been down the route of the latter and got blistered for those moves. I very much welcome the philosophy of signing the likes of Zacha and Lindholm for their prime years.

 

[The Andrew Peeke Fan]

I'm afraid I have to disagree with your takes on Carlo, and it frustrates me more in the Zacha thread. But what are you referencing with 6 million? Brandon Carlo makes 4.1 M per year through 2026/2027.

Brandon Carlo | NHL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Brandon Carlo contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

By the way, I thought Zacha was outstanding in his first game post-contract. I like the deal today, and I think it has a chance to be great.

Zacha rules, and I was being hyperbolic about Carlo's deal (which I don't like).

 

[Fire Sweeney]

Pacha's contract will be a lot less problematic than Hall's or Coyle's

 

[MerlotLineFan]

Anyone have a theory as to why Zacha's faceoff percentage is so much lower this season than his previous years?
Is it simply less reps?

 

[goldnblack]

This guy has a big time NHL shot. It's criminal how well he's hidden it so far in his career. It feels like he has 30 goal pedigree, doesn't he? Let's start with 20 goals and see...

Bumping the old posts from the people who hated this deal should be fun.

 

[Kegs]

the way I judge deals like this is I apply my own "Michael Ryder scale". Basically is this deal better, worse, or comparable to Michael Ryder's $4m cap hit when they won the Cup in 2011. I find this to be a good comp for a few reasons:
Ryder was the prototypical middle 6 forward who does one or 2 things pretty well but lacks consistency and doesn't do enough to solidify a top 6 role. But the Cup run proved that you can absolutely win with limited guys like him in the lineup making whatever % of the cap he was making at the time (7.05% at the time of signing). Ryder was often called overpaid at the time and most reasonable people (IMO) simply argued that $4m was the going rate for what a guy like him brought.

Fast forward to today: Zacha just signed a deal that's 5.76% of the cap at the time of signing. So the question is does Zacha bring as much or more to the table as Michael Ryder in 2011?

He hasn't demonstrated the raw offensive ceiling that Ryder showed in bursts, but other than that i'd say Zacha brings a lot more to the table. He can play any situation, brings size and is younger than Ryder was when he signed that $4m deal. And he does this all for a significantly lower cap %. I also suspect he has untapped offensive potential that Ryder maybe never had. A full season playing 2C and he might put up 60+ points and make the deal look like a steal. The rest of his game is pretty repeatable IMO.

Anyway the above is only partially serious b/c I recognize this is far from scientific but the general idea is that with these middle 6 role player type contracts I look to past examples to decide if the deal feels reasonable and I think this one totally passes the sniff test.

Ryders over time game 7 glove save vs habs made his contract worth 4 mil. He was good in all three zones when he wasn’t scoring as well. He was largely under rated around here.

 

[Xirik]

Anyone have a theory as to why Zacha's faceoff percentage is so much lower this season than his previous years?
Is it simply less reps?

To me it always felt like he can't focus on multiple facets of his game. He simply just goes ham with one skill while letting the others fatigue.

This guy has a big time NHL shot. It's criminal how well he's hidden it so far in his career. It feels like he has 30 goal pedigree, doesn't he? Let's start with 20 goals and see...

Bumping the old posts from the people who hated this deal should be fun.

Devils fans biggest complaint, He has such a great shot but even when he has a good scoring chance he will defer and pass to someone else. I'm happy that he seems to be doing better for the Bruins but my hairline is finally coming back since Zacha left. So much hair pulling...

 

[DKH]

Brandon Carlo is going to be making 6 million dollars to get dunked on by the Leafs top-6 for eternity, and I am, unfortunately, here for it.

This aged well

 

[DKH]

Pacha's contract will be a lot less problematic than Hall's or Coyle's

It’s Zacha. Pacha played in the 90’s and retired after Joey Kocur tuned him up

 

[DominicT]

This guy has a big time NHL shot. It's criminal how well he's hidden it so far in his career. It feels like he has 30 goal pedigree, doesn't he? Let's start with 20 goals and see...

Bumping the old posts from the people who hated this deal should be fun.

Those of us that watched him in junior knew he had a big shot. Had the same problem then: didn't use it near enough.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Zacha is a 30 point defensive liability overpaid guy

Bruins followers (fans I am not so sure) are something crazy

I never thought to look at it this way but wow is it on point.

 

[DKH]

This guy has a big time NHL shot. It's criminal how well he's hidden it so far in his career. It feels like he has 30 goal pedigree, doesn't he? Let's start with 20 goals and see...

Bumping the old posts from the people who hated this deal should be fun.

Great post

 

[ON3M4N]

Zacha since signing his extension: 9GP / 6G / 4A

Now I'm not sure that he can keep playing at over a PPG pace, but for curiosity, if he did keep this pace up he'd finish the season at:

82GP / 31G / 38A

 

[Dellstrom]

I knew the goal scoring would come. Even with his inconsistent scoring the eye test was always great on this guy.

Really happy we got him this summer and even more glad he’s locked up at a good term and price. He’s really found his game here. Perfectly executed low/no risk, high reward trade.

 

[goldnblack]

Zacha since signing his extension: 9GP / 6G / 4A

Now I'm not sure that he can keep playing at over a PPG pace, but for curiosity, if he did keep this pace up he'd finish the season at:

82GP / 31G / 38A

WHEN Pasta resigns, you gotta think they staple Pasta and Zacha on the same line. IF that's the case and the minutes go up (in a post 37/46 world), Zacha becomes a PP1 guy playing at least 3 minutes more per game than today.

You gotta think with this talent level that means MORE points, not less. Goals I dunno, obviously we're seeing him scoring at a level he never has. But Monty is a special guy. If he let's the players play provided they do the things, then maybe this is what happens. They told Zacha to shoot, and my goodness he's shooting.

Second best shot on the Bruins after Pasta? Has to be. The puck EXPLODES off his stick.

 

[BradMarchandismydad]

WHEN Pasta resigns, you gotta think they staple Pasta and Zacha on the same line. IF that's the case and the minutes go up (in a post 37/46 world), Zacha becomes a PP1 guy playing at least 3 minutes more per game than today.

You gotta think with this talent level that means MORE points, not less. Goals I dunno, obviously we're seeing him scoring at a level he never has. But Monty is a special guy. If he let's the players play provided they do the things, then maybe this is what happens. They told Zacha to shoot, and my goodness he's shooting.

Second best shot on the Bruins after Pasta? Has to be. The puck EXPLODES off his stick.

This is what got me really excited about Zacha when we first traded for him. If you watch his goals from NJ, he absolutely rifles the puck, and is going bar and in like 40% of the time.

 

[Roll 4 Lines]

Dunno for sure, but it seemed to me he was shooting earlier in the season, but missing the net, hitting the goalie, hitting the post, etc.

 

[missingchicklet]

Dunno for sure, but it seemed to me he was shooting earlier in the season, but missing the net, hitting the goalie, hitting the post, etc.

You are correct. His shot pct as of 2 1/2 weeks ago was around his career low. Since signing his contract 2 1/2 weeks ago he has already almost doubled that shot pct. It now stands at 13.3%. That's simply a massive turnaround given that he was already on pace to top his career-high SOG. His bad puck luck from earlier in the year was bound to end, and it apparently has.

An already great contract is looking even better now that the goal scoring part of Zacha's game is catching up with the other great things he is doing this season.

 

[DominicT]

Zacha ranks 8th on the team in attempted shots with 137 behind Pastrnak (445), Bergeron (298), Hall (217), Lindholm (208), Marchand (208), DeBrusk (162), and Coyle (156).

Zacha ranks 7th at 60.6% at getting his shot on net behind Frederic (68.3), DeBrusk (67.3), Nosek (66.2), Greer (65.4), Foligno (62.0), and Coyle (61.5).

Frederic, with just 101 attempted shots and Zacha should both be shooting more.

 

[Over the volcano]

Zacha ranks 8th on the team in attempted shots with 137 behind Pastrnak (445), Bergeron (298), Hall (217), Lindholm (208), Marchand (208), DeBrusk (162), and Coyle (156).

Zacha ranks 7th at 60.6% at getting his shot on net behind Frederic (68.3), DeBrusk (67.3), Nosek (66.2), Greer (65.4), Foligno (62.0), and Coyle (61.5).

Frederic, with just 101 attempted shots and Zacha should both be shooting more.

Neither of em get PP time too.