The greatest tragedy in this is that we will never come close to a resolution on this, much less the truth. Kane, if innocent, will always be seen as the gunman on the grassy knoll who also stashed Tupac. If Kane is guilty, a first year attorney could get him off based on today's events.
How?
Putting the evidence bag aside, we learned a few things today.
First, the DNA test conducted on fluid taken from the "below the waist"---vaginal area, anal area, or both---was a Y-STR analysis. (Kane's attorney butchered the type of test---I think he mistakenly called it "Y Cell.") This type of DNA analysis tests male lineage. Kane's attorney said it indicated that Kane's DNA was not found below the waist, but this type of test couldn't prove that his DNA WAS below the waist. Instead, the best it could do would be to define a class of males of the same lineage who could have contributed the DNA. So if the People used this type of test it could be that Kane's attorney spoke accurately when he said that Kane has not been identified as the contributor of the "below the waist" DNA, but I suppose it's possible that Kane could still be part of the group of males from which that DNA came.
Second, my sense is that Kane's DNA WAS found somewhere above the waist. From what I recall, the Buffalo News reported that the complainant had bite marks on her shoulders. Based on defense counsel's focus "below the waist" today, it's reasonable to speculate that the DNA came from those areas, and that Kane is the contributor.
Third, we're getting a sense of a possible defense strategy. At one point I wondered if the defense would concede intercourse but characterize it as consensual. Now I'm wondering if based on what it characterizes as the absence of Kane DNA "below the waist" the defense will argue that no intercourse, and therefore no rape, occurred.
At least one thing is potentially wrong with that strategy. Rape requires penetration, not ejaculation. So to say that the absence of DNA "below the waist" absolves Kane of rape is simply wrong. Similarly, defense counsel's focus on the absence of DNA in that area is misleading.
Finally, it bears noting that today's events are astonishing. I don't think they're fatal to the prosecution's case, though. The prosecution could prove the case without the DNA through the testimony of the complainant alone, and here I suspect they'll have at least the complainant's testimony, prompt outcry testimony (a witness or witnesses who heard the complainant exclaim that she had been raped shortly after that incident), and testimony of the nurse or nurses who conducted the rape kit. What could actually prove helpful to Kane today (although his attorney didn't say it) is the newfound ability to challenge the "above the waist" DNA as tainted by a broken chain of custody. That DNA evidence could corroborate at least part of the victim's account of the alleged assault, and with the nonsense that happened today the defense has an angle to try to persuade a jury to discredit that evidence.