Can they still take gold with a 3 point deduction if the stars align?
This is what I believe the rules are. All that really matters right now is getting to the next round. They can move forward if they beat Colombia even with the 6 point deduction, as we would have 3 points (as would Colombia), and the tie breaker vs Colombia (I believe the tie breaker is goal differential, but we would have the tie breaker anyway). Only NZ appears to be out of the next round, unless they upset France and do so with a lopsided score, to help with their goal differential (-3 right now).
Now, if we lose to Colombia, we will need to have our punishment reduced to 3 points, and hope NZ upsets France to be 2nd and get through for sure, as we would be tied with France and NZ but would still have the goal differential tie-breaker. I'm not confident that the IOC would change their ruling if it meant the host nation doesn't go through to the next round.
We could still get through if we finish in 3rd place in the pool as well, which again, would rely on our having our 6 point penalty reduced to 3. The top two of the three 3rd place teams get through to the knockout round. Right now, that's Australia, Brazil and Canada have the 3rd place spots in each division, although we are down on points, so we need that penalty reduction to be considered. If we got the reduction, we would be ahead of both Australia (GD -2) and Brazil (GD 0) - although the third place teams could still change in those pools. If Australia beats Zambia and Germany loses to the US, then Germany is 3rd (current GD is 0). Either Brazil or Japan could end up 3rd, as they are tied in points, but their last game is head to head, so that game will determine who is 2nd and who is 3rd. Both squads have a goal differential of 0 right now.
Summary
1) We beat Colombia and we make it through regardless.
2) We lose to Colombia and receive point penalty reduction from 6 to 3, we can finish 2nd in the pool only if NZ beats France.
3) We lose to Colombia and receive a point penalty reduction from 6 to 3, we are likely (not guaranteed, but probable) to finish with one of the "Wild Card" spots ahead of the loser of Brazil/Japan even if France beats NZ.