Racer88
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2020
- 13,186
- 13,340
Shows you how little value stats like PDO actually have
Confirmed with Link: Papi in OT leafs win 2-1
- Thread starter 6ix
- Start date
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therealkoho
Him/Leaf/fan
Willie and Mitch were both dominant and it's a good sign of things to come, Mitch set his team-mates up for sure goals at least 5 times and should have buried at least one of his chances, Willie could have had three himself
Matthews looks a shade or two off, it's there for sure and just shaking the cage to get out, maybe the OT goal helps break him out of his lethargy
JT had a really strong game, winning the wall dominating the big Calgary Dmen when challenged, his line threatened almost every shift, there was no "hover" in his game anywhere, not that there ever was!
The PP was going and if not for Vladar the Leafs would have scored on all 3 opportunities, in fact the Leafs could have well popped in a season high, he made some huge saves.
Jack was calm and steady and made any Calgary chances evaporate with timely saves and freezes.
The D were getting battered in their own end but they held up, and all in all they all played well, not all-star like but just being there where they had to be all night long. There weren't many errors other than a couple of soft giveaways and they still need to clean up the front of their net with a little more malice, opponents seem to think they have some kind of right to be there, and they don't.
I'd like to see Keefe give Spezza some time with JT and Mitch, Vintage has been playing lights out and deserves some time with the elite guys, I don't know if you guys have any clear memories of Alfredsson Spezza and Heatley, but man it was like a circus when these guys were on, and they were on a lot!
Matthews looks a shade or two off, it's there for sure and just shaking the cage to get out, maybe the OT goal helps break him out of his lethargy
JT had a really strong game, winning the wall dominating the big Calgary Dmen when challenged, his line threatened almost every shift, there was no "hover" in his game anywhere, not that there ever was!
The PP was going and if not for Vladar the Leafs would have scored on all 3 opportunities, in fact the Leafs could have well popped in a season high, he made some huge saves.
Jack was calm and steady and made any Calgary chances evaporate with timely saves and freezes.
The D were getting battered in their own end but they held up, and all in all they all played well, not all-star like but just being there where they had to be all night long. There weren't many errors other than a couple of soft giveaways and they still need to clean up the front of their net with a little more malice, opponents seem to think they have some kind of right to be there, and they don't.
I'd like to see Keefe give Spezza some time with JT and Mitch, Vintage has been playing lights out and deserves some time with the elite guys, I don't know if you guys have any clear memories of Alfredsson Spezza and Heatley, but man it was like a circus when these guys were on, and they were on a lot!
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therealkoho
Him/Leaf/fan
Nylanderthal
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2010
- 7,901
- 6,252
Nobody cares about winning a playoff round. Cup or bust.Let's win a round first and then we can talk about winning the cup
2/3 playoff failures have come in 7 games to the cup finalists whom both ploughed thru their other two series wins.
Sometimes it’s not when you lose but to who.
Aus34Matt
Registered User
- Dec 10, 2017
- 388
- 524
I love Matty, but that goal was a result of a softie from Vladar.
Game would not have ended in OT if Campbell didn't play well again, he's more deserving of the 3rd star.
therealkoho
Him/Leaf/fan
1. He drew a penalty after being hooked
3. Muzzin was cms from scoring and hit the post
Weird criticisms
I actually thought it was some kind of parody thing
Nylanderthal
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2010
- 7,901
- 6,252
I also lived in Calgary at the time and remember how upset but good sports my flames loving roommates were about the whole thing.
PromisedLand
I need more FOOD
Come on bruh.... Carlyle's Leafs lost in Game 7 OT in 2013 to Bruins who made the cup finals too
Tampa got swept by CBJ and then went on to win 2 cups in a row; while CBJ hasn't done jack squat LOL
We just gotto win a round so there is some kinda calm in the dressing room and fanbse. GOtta kill that mental block. gotta get over it
The Hanging Jowl
Registered User
- Apr 2, 2017
- 10,908
- 12,477
Disagree. Matthews tried 5-hole at least once earlier in the game, and I think twice. He obviously knew or saw something and exploited it. That's smart and a good goal.
ULF_55
Moderator
Vladar probably wants that back, but he was moving, and he had a tough game.
Vladar had another save on a shot that he wasn't sure he had it on a Matthews shot.
Both goalies had great games, and made very good saves.
ULF_55
Moderator
I had the Calgary guys narrating and it was kind of funny, how they would praise the Flames on plays where the Leafs made good plays.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
Did jack have to save a breakaway in OT against the best scorer in hockey, like Vladar did?
That goal was pure snipe skill: lightning release taken perfectly in stride using the defender as a screen with pinpoint accuracy.
Campbell was good but Vlad was busier and made more big stops
Aus34Matt
Registered User
- Dec 10, 2017
- 388
- 524
Cmon bros, you and I have seen what a Rocket snipe is versus a fluke --he tried the shot several times, one was bound to go in.
Yes I have and that was one.
Goalies stop shooters all the time. Part of sniping is timing and that OT goal was timed perfectly
campbell played well but let’s not act like he’s the reason we won last night. He didn’t need to be spectacular. We had the better chances most of the night, particularly in the 2nd half
Havoc
Registered User
- Jul 25, 2009
- 7,334
- 7,600
That was no softie. Matthews goes east west slowing everyone down, forces flames D to criss cross (so at one point both screen the goalie) then Matthews finally releases between the skate and stick of the flames D and sends the puck between the goalies arm and body.
That was the rocket winner going to work. Not the result of a softie.
I'll just paste it here so everyone knows this goal was a beauty. Just look at his path, pace, release. This is a goal scorers goal.
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Aus34Matt
Registered User
- Dec 10, 2017
- 388
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Aus34Matt
Registered User
- Dec 10, 2017
- 388
- 524
Good teams generally have a positive PDO and bad teams a negative PDO and there is a correlation between that team's PDO and their shot differential/scoring differential/xGF etc. unless you are a team that lives or dies on extreme shooting% + hot goaltending (like the Jets for example). Thats a risky way to conduct business though. If Helle goes down, the Jets are up a certain creek without a paddle IMO.
Seeing where the Leafs rank the previous 3 seasons have them 8th in the league:
1. Tampa
2. Islanders
3. Jets
4. Penguins
5. Caps
6. Avs
7. Bruins
8. Leafs (1.009)
5 of the 8 are also in the top 10 for xGF% with the Jets being only real outlier.
What do the bottom 8 teams for PDO look like?
24. Sens
25. Habs
26. Ducks
27. Sharks
28. Sabres
29. Devils
30. Kings
31. Wings
That all makes sense though right? Team with good shooters and good goalies will tend to do better and it gets amplified greatly if they outplay opponents.
So the Leafs had a PDO of 1.009 the previous 3 years as well as an xGF% ranking of 3rd best in the league showing that they were a good team that wasnt lucky in doing it.
The Leafs started the year 2-4-1 but were they really playing badly? If they had poor underlying stats to match a low PDO then the answer would be yes but lets check it out.
Leafs PDO: .947
Leafs xGF% ranking: 54.16 (9th in the NHL)
Not only was the Leafs PDO waaaaaay lower than their previous average with the same core but they were also largely controlling play which should scream out to anyone they were getting very unlucky the first few games (hell the eye test was saying that).
Since then things have regulated (as anyone with half a brain would have predicted) and the current rankings stand at:
Record: 9-5-1
PDO .991
xGF%: 56.15 (2nd in the NHL)
The Leafs have actually been playing so well this year, they probably should have a record more in line with 11-3-1 (Rangers and Sharks games come to mind for bad bounces) but it's nice to see things regulate sooner rather than later as I couldnt take some of the more active posters embarrassing themselves much longer.
Does PDO have value? It's literally the stat that was predicting the big correction coming up. The Leafs are one of the best, most consistent, hardest-working teams in hockey. Of course they were going to go on a run.
Racer88
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2020
- 13,186
- 13,340
Thx for taking the time to lay it all out. Great explanation as to how it applies to the Leafs. As you can guess I’m an eye test and you either win or lose kinda guy but alway willing to read someone’s explanation.
Cheers and Go Leafs Go
therealkoho
Him/Leaf/fan
RunItBackAgain
“We were right there”
- Oct 14, 2021
- 4,488
- 6,043
Weird almost like a team sport. AM34 kept trying and ended up carrying the heck out of that OT. Just as easy to say no AM no win.
Aus34Matt
Registered User
- Dec 10, 2017
- 388
- 524
