GDT: PANTHERS @ HURRICANES

[Navin R Slavin]

2009 and 2019 we were playing with house money and resembled Florida those years. We exceeded expectations in both years and completely ran out of gas in the ECF. This year the bar is much higher.

The bar is only higher for unreasonable optimists.

After two good series victories, we've come up against a team that matches up well against us, and they are at full strength, and we are not. We are down 2 of our likely 3 top scorers, and now it's telling.

It's really that simple.

We continue to have a puncher's chance, and the fact that we're in the Final Four given our offensive losses is exceptional, and a tribute to the team's togetherness and commitment.

These guys will never quit, ever. They can go down 3-0 and still win. It's not likely, but it's possible, and I will enjoy pulling for them until victory or until defeat.

Be thankful that this team has so much heart. I am immensely proud of them.

 

[Sigurd]

The good news is the team played bad for a lot of last night. So if they get back to playing not like garbage, which includes things like completing very short passes, and shooting into the half of the net where the goalie isn't, they can still win this.

Yeah, that was one of the most glaring problems throughout last night. It was shockingly bad how often it was a problem tbh.

Some might say it was fatigue. Well, Florida played the same 4OT game and didn't have that problem last night.

I also feel bad for the fans at PNC after those two home games and the Canes couldn't win either game in front of them. It's made worse by the fact that both games went to overtime (and 4OT obviously).

Florida, as impressive of a year as they've had in the playoffs, still looks like a beatable team against us even with our injuries. It's frustrating to say the least.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I agree with so much of this. Also, yes. Aho needs goals and not just an occasional assist. He's our best forward remaining post-injuries, and I just checked NHL.com to confirm, he's only had 1 goal since the Islanders series.

Aho also looked off last night along with TT again (clearly). In general, the team made sloppy passes, and too often was indecisive.

Oh yeah, and being 0 for 3 on the powerplay is unacceptable. Especially when one of those was one of the worst looking powerplays I've seen in a long time; they couldn't even set up and made awful passes.

In addition to this possible lineup (Rod HAS to change the lines or he's really gonna share a lot of blame for this series), here's my thought:

Martinook-Aho-Jarvis
Noesen-KK-Necas
Mac-Staal-Fast
TT-Drury-Poolparty

Given what we have post-injuries, I really like these changes. Stastny needs to go. I'd rather have TT (even with his struggles) on the 4th line than him. Swapping Noesen for Martinook on the 1st line maybe will jolt Aho a little bit to do more offensively. Especially if Martinook can have flashes of his performance from the New Jersey series.

These lines were really needed at our home games though not only for the wins, but for last line change.

Or Barbashev. Him having 4 goals and 5 assists in 12 playoff games this year is pretty impressive (he's only taken 1 penalty too); especially for a guy that iirc, didn't cost much to get.

Good points.

Re: Aho. With my 200 seats it sure looks like Aho doesn't have the usual high gear speed. He is often slow to react and is not accelerating like he usually does. A lingering bug, an injury or just reticent to play against this physical team....don't know but unless we get more from him we are cooked.

 

[hockeynjune]

That was a gut punch no lie, but let’s put it in perspective. After Svech went down , I had zero expectation we would be here. We are here and however unlikely we could still make this a series. It’s house money for me still and sometimes these guys really surprise me.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Road could be the right recipe.

 

[Canes]

Florida's best players have been better than our best players especially when it matters most. We haven't been horrible, but they have been better.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Ok who's checking and regretting their posts this morning? Huh huh??

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Ok who's checking and regretting their posts this morning? Huh huh??

View attachment 711081

Unfortunately im still a dirty leg poag. So I can’t take that back.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Okay, but then you've got Necas, who has a grand total of two goals in the playoffs (I believe).

The fact of the matter is, we're running into the same issue that Boston and Toronto before us ran into: Bob. He's on a heater, he's keeping his team into games they have no business being in, and Florida eventually finds a way to win those games.

Bob’s all strengths GSAA/60 is ahead of 2011 Tim Thomas right now, per NST. (Side note: this metric loves Andersen as well).

I know giving credit to the other team is a distant 3rd to (1) blaming the refs, if possible and (2) internal criticism. However, it’s warranted in this case.

 

[Sigurd]

Last night's OT goal likely doesn't happen if Slavin and Burns don't lose BOTH of their sticks in the corner. To show a perfect example of how bad Carolina's luck has been this series, Slavin's stick got stuck in Burns' skate. FFS, this is ridiculous. Some bad puck bounces, several posts and bars hit by our shots, and whatever that was in OT.

I also have to point out the obvious. Slavin and Burns were out on the ice during both OT GWGs from Florida. In game 1, the goal happened because Burns made an unnecessary reverse pass that was a turn over. However, at least there's the understandable excuse of mental fatigue at the end of 4OT. Last night though, I don't know what happened when they both lost their sticks. Also, shouldn't there have been one defenseman closer to the net? Having two in the corner?

I expect all of that kind of shit from our 2nd pairing, but not them.

 

[ndp]

I think all of us here should just chill the f**k out and be thankful that this team is in the ECF! Who among us here thought the ECF was even a remote possibility after it became apparent that both Patches and Svech would be unavailable for the playoffs? Not to mention an historically ineffective Turbo (also unavailable for a long stretch)…winning a Cup takes a certain amount of luck to go along with skill and desire. We’ve had the desire part in spades but the luck factor has been nonexistent this year…

The Hurricanes luck happened in round two with Martinook putting up McDavid type numbers. I’d be willing to wager he’ll never have another stretch of games like that for the rest of his career.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The Kotkaniemi line got caved in last game (-8 shot differential/-4 HD Corsi differential), It was an astute decision to get some younger legs with Staal in a matchup against Hughes. It’s not as useful against the Panthers. That 80s line and Martinook - Staal - Fast seems a no brainer to me.

 

[Unsustainable]

So yesterday was a bit of a blur for me.

What I don’t get is how our 2nd goal was waved off. Whoever made that call just wanted us to lose

 

[Sigurd]

The Kotkaniemi line got caved in last game (-8 shot differential/-4 HD Corsi differential), It was an astute decision to get some younger legs with Staal in a matchup against Hughes. It’s not as useful against the Panthers. That 80s line and Martinook - Staal - Fast seems a no brainer to me.

Yes, I decided this morning that Rod not changing those lines from against New Jersey was probably the difference maker in the first 2 games (that and having Stastny AND Stepan on the 4th line in game 1). He did not adapt. They worked well against NJ, but Florida is a very different team.

We'll see if he finally makes the appropriate line changes in game 3. If not, he really deserves so much blame for this series; as much as we and the players love him.

Necas should've been back on line 2 starting from game 1. There's no question about that, and especially with all of our injuries and he keeps one of our most talented forwards down to the 3rd line.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Bob’s all strengths GSAA/60 is ahead of 2011 Tim Thomas right now, per NST. (Side note: this metric loves Andersen as well).

I know giving credit to the other team is a distant 3rd to (1) blaming the refs, if possible and (2) internal criticism. However, it’s warranted in this case.

He's been stellar. He deserves to win as long as he's playing like he is, but I think the Canes deserve to win too for various reasons. Game 3 is the decider now. Onward.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I can tell you I hope they send a big FU in FL to Tkachuk and his end of the game antics.

 

[surfzone365]

The bar is only higher for unreasonable optimists.

After two good series victories, we've come up against a team that matches up well against us, and they are at full strength, and we are not. We are down 2 of our likely 3 top scorers, and now it's telling.

It's really that simple.

We continue to have a puncher's chance, and the fact that we're in the Final Four given our offensive losses is exceptional, and a tribute to the team's togetherness and commitment.

These guys will never quit, ever. They can go down 3-0 and still win. It's not likely, but it's possible, and I will enjoy pulling for them until victory or until defeat.

Be thankful that this team has so much heart. I am immensely proud of them.

I don’t think there is anything unreasonable about the expectations for this team. This is the position we want to be in in terms of that. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee a parade and we’re not going to get sympathy for our injuries. We chose to stand pat for the most part at the deadline. It was a gamble that at this point doesn’t look great but thems the breaks. We’ll work with what we have and hopefully get the ball rolling with a win Monday. For a team that doesn’t have any true stars to take over and that wins more by committee this is how it goes.

 

[ndp]

Necas should've been back on line 2 starting from game 1. There's no question about that, and especially with all of our injuries and he keeps one of our most talented forwards down to the 3rd line.

Is Necas really on the third line? EVTOI makes Staal line sort of the second line, technically the Staal line played the most 5v5 minutes of all the forwards last night. I think how we label the lines and how Rod views the lines are a little different. I know he doesn’t like to assign a number to his lines but if pressed I imagine he would say Staal is his #2 center.

Just a quick glance at both teams TOI and it looks like Maurice definitely leans on his top guys a little more than Rod. That’s kind of always been one of my biggest complaints about Rods coaching style, I personally think he tries to spread the ice time and depth out too much. I’m of the opinion that load a top line up with some of your best players and then play the shit out of them. Sink or swim.

Or maybe who we view as our top guys and coach views as the top guys are a little different. But who am I to say, his system and coaching has gotten a Hurricanes team missing arguably its second best forward to the ECF. I personally don’t count Patches because him being healthy for a full season and playoffs was a pretty big gamble to begin with, that’s why they got him for free.

 

[AD Skinner]

Yeah it would be frustrating to be swept out of 2 final fours in 5 years, but my whole thing is: who else even gets to play in 2 final fours in 5 years? Tampa? Colorado? The canes are really good and it is very difficult for any team to be this good.

 

[IronLion]

I thought we actually created alot of very good chances last night. Our problem, I think generally, is that we are pretty good at creating alot of good chances, we are not good at finishing these good chances. Missing Svech only exacerbates this. Need to win Monday and we’re right back in it. The margin for error in these games is microscopic.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Bob’s all strengths GSAA/60 is ahead of 2011 Tim Thomas right now, per NST. (Side note: this metric loves Andersen as well).

I know giving credit to the other team is a distant 3rd to (1) blaming the refs, if possible and (2) internal criticism. However, it’s warranted in this case.

Yeah, I haven’t been watching the games, but I’ve been following on Twitter. In the third period of Game 1 and the first period of Game 2, we outshot the Panthers 34-12 and got a single goal to show for it. Scoring chances in those periods were also HEAVILY tilted in our favor.

Bob is the only reason this series is in their favor. The Canes would have at least one win, if not both, if Bob wasn’t playing superhuman level right now.

Unfortunately, that’s how the cards are dealt sometimes. We, of all teams, really can’t complain about a team riding a hot goalie to a possible Cup.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I don’t think there is anything unreasonable about the expectations for this team. This is the position we want to be in in terms of that. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee a parade and we’re not going to get sympathy for our injuries. We chose to stand pat for the most part at the deadline. It was a gamble that at this point doesn’t look great but thems the breaks. We’ll work with what we have and hopefully get the ball rolling with a win Monday. For a team that doesn’t have any true stars to take over and that wins more by committee this is how it goes.

Sorry, I disagree. Hoping for a Cup is sometimes reasonable, and yes, we're in that window. Expecting a Cup is never reasonable, especially when you are a primarily defensive team that loses two 30 goal scorers to injury.

The greater gamble would have been to splash a ton of assets on a flashy rental and then losing Svech immediately after. It's easy to forget how that sequence of events happened.

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

Slept on it. Taught some adorable kids and played freeze dance so I’m in a good mood.

That being said while it is entirely possible that the Canes make some grand comeback, they have drained the sports life force out of me.my expectations are much lower, but I guess it’s better than having a team not in the dance. :: shrug ::

The bar is only higher for unreasonable optimists.

After two good series victories, we've come up against a team that matches up well against us, and they are at full strength, and we are not. We are down 2 of our likely 3 top scorers, and now it's telling.

It's really that simple.

We continue to have a puncher's chance, and the fact that we're in the Final Four given our offensive losses is exceptional, and a tribute to the team's togetherness and commitment.

These guys will never quit, ever. They can go down 3-0 and still win. It's not likely, but it's possible, and I will enjoy pulling for them until victory or until defeat.

Be thankful that this team has so much heart. I am immensely proud of them.

Yup, I love this stupid team. I don’t blame lack of effort.

 

[LakeLivin]

My thoughts aren't necessarily directed only at you two, but your posts are good jumping off points.

The worst part is we avoided all of the "boogeymen" in Boston, Tampa and the Rangers and we're STILL looking to go down in a ball of flames in the ECF.

A major trade for a legitmate goalscorer 100% needs to be made this off-season. As far as I'm concerned, the entire roster/farm is on the table for it as well. Nobody is untouchable anymore.

How much are we disrespecting Florida? I mean, they did beat a Boston team that set a new record for regular season wins. And then took out Toronto 4-1 (a Leafs team that had the 4th best record in the league and that dispatched your "boogeyman" Bolts team 4-2). But losing to them by the slimmest of margins (once after almost 4 full OTs and a second time after a complete fluke of a play when Slavin gets his stick caught in Burn's skate that essentially turns a 5-4 into a 5-2) constitutes flaming out? Is it possible that a big part of why we're down 0-2 is due to a combination of puck luck and maybe what Fla is doing right (in big part a BOB heater) as much as what the Canes are doing wrong? Seems like a lot of our board is showing a similar level of subconscious disrespect to the Panthers that the main board shows to the Canes.

Merely getting to the ECF isnt enough. I want to win the cup. Its the only way for this team to get any respect and its most likely the only way Rod gets into the HoF.

The talking heads will never respect us if we keep losing here.

We all want to win the Cup. But the attitude seems to be that we if we just make the right moves it will happen. That ignores that there are 32 teams with the same objective and that in any given year a bit of luck usually seems to be a contributing factor in a Cup championship. And that luck is also present in putting together a team that's a perennial top tier contender. Look at the draft position luck of Pitt (Crosby, Malkin) and Chicago (Kane, Towes) or how big Tampa hit with Stamkos 1oa, Hedman 2oa, and getting a Kucherov @59 and Point @79.

My point for consideration is that a team can optimize their overall chances (immediate and long term) given the environment they're in and not guarantee a Cup. And that chasing moves beyond that can actually degrade their chances. Yes, I want a Cup, but I don't want to turn into Calgary south. And that's something to keep in mind when we Monday morning quarterback when everything doesn't go exactly the way we'd like.

 

[surfzone365]

Sorry, I disagree. Hoping for a Cup is sometimes reasonable, and yes, we're in that window. Expecting a Cup is never reasonable, especially when you are a primarily defensive team that loses two 30 goal scorers to injury.

The greater gamble would have been to splash a ton of assets on a flashy rental and then losing Svech immediately after. It's easy to forget how that sequence of events happened.

I think we’re saying the same thing in different contexts. There is no guarantee ever of a Cup so with that “expectations” are high but also realistic. We also understand hindsight is 20/20 and there is no way to predict injuries and such. Rod has done a hell of a job getting the team this far where others may have bowed out sooner. I’m realistic about it all. I too am proud of the boys. This team has done things in its history that even multiple Cup teams like the Hawks and the Pens haven’t done.