Panarin: Yes or No?

[Hi ImHFNYR]

To be fair, I haven't read the entire thread (trying to wrap up final edits on a dissertation), but part of my frustration in this thread--and part 0f the reason my tone took a turn towards the definitive--is that nobody on the "perpetual tank" side is even trying to debate the issue. The general responses I've seen have been more in the realm of witty responses like "Nuh-uh" and the like.

I have yet to see anyone make a sound argument against the following financial points that I made re: the benefits of Panarin:

1- That his cap hit would be all but covered within 2 years by the departures of Smith, Henrik, and Staal (all of whom are set to be replaced in house with ELC players).

2- That Panarin gives us options regarding Kreider (a player whose mileage and style of play makes him more likely to break down than Panarin IMO). If the team wants to keep Kreider, it allows them to play hardball with the negotiations (2nd line LW rather than ONLY top 6 LW in the franchise depth chart). If they can't get Kreider on a team friendly deal, signing Panarin also allows them to trade Kreider for assets while still improving on the top line LW by a fairly substantial margin (and this is coming from someone who likes Kreider).

3- Having a guy like Panarin helps to keep players on their appropriate lines, which makes them more affordable down the road. Skjei isn't a #3, but he's paid like one. Kreider, ideally, is not a 1st line LW, but he's going to get paid like one. Truly bad contracts are contracts that involve a player getting paid as if he were a better player than he is. That's precisely what the issue was with Holik. Nobody looks at Crosby or Malkin or guys like that and claims those contracts are bad--those are clearly top players. Panarin is a top player, and having him on the top line enables the team to stop playing people above their skill level (and then subsequently getting paid based on where we put them rather than where they should be on a contender).

Financially speaking, I just think this is an ideal scenario where a rare top player is available for free at the team's weakest position on the organizational depth chart. I also think it gives the team significant flexibility in other contracts, based on the points made above. I'm more than happy to discuss it and be convinced otherwise, but as I've said--none of the team tank folks have thus far seemed interested in that. Hence the comment that that side's primary interest is in making the team as bad as possible to have a tiny chance at another top pick.

The first bolded is utterly and completely wrong. or you fell into a wormhole and read a very different thread than I did. Or you only read a very small number of comments.

The 2nd bolded is also utterly and completely wrong if you're implying those arguments aren't here. I've seen them repeatedly

1 is addressed repeatedly here.

2 is dumb. I'm sorry but it's just dumb. You don't use up giant chunks of up to 11 M in cap space to maybe, possibly bargain another player down by 1-2 M. Ask Toronto about that

3 is ignoring something important.

Why are you not even considering the possibility of scoring more on lesser talent? Then maybe we're fooled into thinking that they can be top line players so we open space for them by getting rid of the guys who used to allow them to play sheltered minutes. Then we find out, oops, they can't go as well against better players.

 

[Inferno]

It’s not a shortcut because they aren’t sacrificing any draft picks to acquire him. It’s not a shortcut because the player is 27 years old. It’s not a shortcut because his signing won’t take away ice time from a young player. It’s not a shortcut because they aren’t planning on a big FA signing blitz this offseason with the hope of making the playoffs next year. He’s just one player playing a position they aren’t currently deep at. It’s maybe signing an 80 pt winger for money. Not even your money.

Stop being obnoxious. You’re no smarter or more in tune than anyone else here. You’re a fan, like the rest of us

He'll be 28 a few weeks into the season. He may be 27 when he signs his contract... But he's a 28 year old next season. 7 years takes him through his age 35 season.

Good luck with that.

 

[Edge]

We have a lot of good depth pieces, though I still think we need to have more potentially elite young skaters in the system. I don’t quite feel we’re there, even after the 2019 draft. However, I do think we could potentially be looking at that scenario after the 2020 draft.

I expect the 2020-21 team to be better than the current Rangers, though I’d say they are probably still towards middle/bottom-middle of the league. If a lot of things fall right, perhaps they can make the playoffs.

I’d say 2021-22 is when the team is likely to either resemble what we hope to build, or we’ll know if we’re off the path.

With regards to Panarin, my concerns still remain the timing and the potential impact on the approach. But regardless of whether one is for or against singing Panarin, there’s a good deal of “projecting” involved.

Some people are going to be more optimistic in their projections, some people are going to be more guarded. But going off my projection, I still think an awful lot has to go right. Mine still has the Rangers really hitting their stride somewhere around Panarin’s 30th birthday. So even if that holds true, I now feel like we’re somewhat unnecessarily on the clock. Not because it’s time for the kids to shit or get off the pot, so much as because we find ourselves “having” to take advantage of Panarin’s pride.

But frankly, we don’t yet know what we actually have. We have hopes. We have projections. We have potential. But we’re not a team coming off a season in which our kids from the 16 and 17 drafts have taken charge and hinted that there is higher end growth around the corner.

Nor do we really know what we actually have in the 2018 kids either. We’re still a month out from drafting a guy we believe will be our franchise player.

But that’s the rub. A big signing usually feels like a move that comes after you have some semblance of knowing what your prospects can bring to the NHL. We’re not at that point yet IMO.

Sadly, I feel like this whole scenario is like dating someone where there’s a lot of mutual interest and attraction, by the timing is just off enough that it makes things a bit difficult. I almost wish Panarin were two years younger, and we were reaching this point a year or two from now. Because that’s when I think the picture starts to come into focus.

But I look at this roster, and the unknowns, and the holes, and I just don’t think the timing is there. We could probably force the issue, and maybe nothing negative happens. But I feel like that’s a risk I am just not comfortable making at this point in time.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

I expect a talent like Panarin to actually hit unrestricted free agency probably yeah, every 2-3-4 offseasons. Not every offseason for sure.

But just because they hit the market doesn't mean they want to come here, or that some other team wouldn't be willing to outbid us.

The player has to hit free agency, and we have to be a high bidder if not the highest bidder, and the player has to want to be in NY. The last player that really fits that elite mold like that, who we successfully acquired in free agency, was again, Gaborik. Nash was a trade, Shattenkirk just wasn't that high profile.



Simply untrue.



I dispute that it's impossible or even unlikely that we are Cup Contenders while Panarin is still very productive.

I'd say it's at least like a thirty three percent chance we are well stocked for a deep run while Panarin is a top-6 player.

Now, it's arguable that we could just sign a guy 2-3 years from who is 27 at that time, and that's even better. Maybe. Or maybe we could do both. I see our cap situation as pretty golden.

To me, the bottom line is, the Rangers are simply gonna commit that money somewhere. They are not going to be a cap floor scraping team. They will re-sign Kreider. They'll do other stuff with the money.

If it's a choice between Kreider at 7-8 million or Panarin at 11, it's an easy choice for me. Panarin.

So maybe Panarin doesn't want to come here either. Irrelevant either way. Panarin isn't the same guy 3 or 4 seasons from now. Either we get a FA in 2-4 seasons, we get no FA, or we have a possible 10-11 M albatross. Guess which one is the worst option? It's Panarin.

Maybe he's not an albatross of course. Maybe he experiences no dropoff even in the 6th year of his deal. Sure that happens with almost no one in a league that's predicated more on speed...speed that drops off invariably with age...but we can cross our fingers and ignore all of that.

I don't think you can make a good argument if you just ignore the FA's that have been available outside of just NYR signees. I similarly think it ignores the spirit of this discussion to blow off guys we got through trades even though it's incredibly important to acknowledge the possibility of acquiring guys that way too. It's obviously better to not have to trade but it's not crippling to go trade once for a guy. If you trade repeatedly and stupidly, that's another story. Just as signing a guy isn't necessarily crippling...unless you sign guys to stupid contracts at stupid times.

Untrue? You're wrong. It's true

You can dispute it all you like. You have no actual data or evidence to back up your dispute though. You're crossing your fingers.

Using some or most cap for a small number of years is different from using massive chunks of the cap on a player who will be an aged player not long into the life of a 7 or 8 year deal.

 

[Ghost of jas]

We have a lot of good depth pieces, though I still think we need to have more potentially elite young skaters in the system. I don’t quite feel we’re there, even after the 2019 draft. However, I do think we could potentially be looking at that scenario after the 2020 draft.

I expect the 2020-21 team to be better than the current Rangers, though I’d say they are probably still towards middle/bottom-middle of the league. If a lot of things fall right, perhaps they can make the playoffs.

I’d say 2021-22 is when the team is likely to either resemble what we hope to build, or we’ll know if we’re off the path.

With regards to Panarin, my concerns still remain the timing and the potential impact on the approach. But regardless of whether one is for or against singing Panarin, there’s a good deal of “projecting” involved.

Some people are going to be more optimistic in their projections, some people are going to be more guarded. But going off my projection, I still think an awful lot has to go right. Mine still has the Rangers really hitting their stride somewhere around Panarin’s 30th birthday. So even if that holds true, I now feel like we’re somewhat unnecessarily on the clock. Not because it’s time for the kids to **** or get off the pot, so much as because we find ourselves “having” to take advantage of Panarin’s pride.

But frankly, we don’t yet know what we actually have. We have hopes. We have projections. We have potential. But we’re not a team coming off a season in which our kids from the 16 and 17 drafts have taken charge and hinted that there is higher end growth around the corner.

Nor do we really know what we actually have in the 2018 kids either. We’re still a month out from drafting a guy we believe will be our franchise player.

But that’s the rub. A big signing usually feels like a move that comes after you have some semblance of knowing what your prospects can bring to the NHL. We’re not at that point yet IMO.

Sadly, I feel like this whole scenario is like dating someone where there’s a lot of mutual interest and attraction, by the timing is just off enough that it makes things a big difficult. I almost wish Panarin were two years younger, and we were reaching this point a year or two from now. Because that’s when I think the picture starts to come into focus.

But I look at this roster, and the unknowns, and the holes, and I just don’t think the timing is there. We could probably force the issue, and maybe nothing negative happens. But I feel like that’s a risk I am just not comfortable making at this point in time.

It cannot be stated enough...the players that many are counting to make up the core have yet to play a minute of hockey for the Rangers. There are a lot of assumptions that are being made that I do not yet feel comfortable agreeing with.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

One in a million, lol, ok.

Someone is willing to say anything to win.

~flush~

Did you really just take '1 in a million' literally instead of acknowledging its common usage as a way to describe something that is significantly unlikely? At least with bobbop (who liked that comment) this is his second language, so maybe he takes things literally bc nuance in a second language is tough. What's your excuse?

Or are you really ignorant of the fact that the majority of players start drop off significantly in their early 30s/late 20s?

 

[FJB]

Will any forward comparable or better than Panarin (especially in terms of age/production) actually become UFA in 2020? 2021? 2022?

 

[charliemurphy]

It'd be a terrible move if we were picking like say, 9th. Kakko changes things a bit, though not that much.

Kakko and another top 10 pick? Yeah, then I'm more interested.

Can you put this little gem under your avatar from now on?

 

[charliemurphy]

Will any forward comparable or better than Panarin (especially in terms of age/production) actually become UFA in 2020? 2021? 2022?

Nope. Not as UFA... thinking those folks haven't checked to see who will be available.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Nope. Not as UFA... thinking those folks haven't checked to see who will be available.

Do they need to rely on UFA’s though?

 

[charliemurphy]

Do they need to rely on UFA’s though?

Nope. Not at all but the poster was inquiring about UFAs not trading assets for a player.

 

[Off Sides]

LW, but again, I'm pretty sure the team sees him as a center.

They may see him as a center, he may turn out to be either that or a wing.

Is he turns out to be a wing, how does putting Panarin in front of him on a 5-6-7 year deal effect him?

Even if he turns out a center with Zbad, Does he ever get 1st unit PP time at center or wing with Panarin signed?

Since we do not know what Chytil will turn out to be, why are they going to place him, at best at 2nd line and 2nd PP unit?

Say Chytil does overtake Panarin by the time he is up for extension, what does he ask for in his next contract knowing he is above Panarin on the depth chart? What if he doesn't, does he really want to sign long term to play behind him for the next ~5 years effecting even his next contract?

The UFA thing is larger than just this player is good and he is worth this or that, it's going to change how the other players are used on ice, and beyond that it's going to change how they see their opportunities both future play and future pay.

Since culture is brought up often, do the Rangers want players vying for the most money they can possible get, or do they want them to maybe take a little less because they see others taking a little less? Wouldn't the Rangers throwing that much at any UFA likely effect that part of the teams culture?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Will any forward comparable or better than Panarin (especially in terms of age/production) actually become UFA in 2020? 2021? 2022?

Who cares? If we rebuild the right way chances are we wont even need to sign that guy.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

He'll be 28 a few weeks into the season. He may be 27 when he signs his contract... But he's a 28 year old next season. 7 years takes him through his age 35 season.

Good luck with that.

Doesn't mean it's not a shortcut signing him though. So every signing of a player over 29 is a shortcut? You people and age, it's getting so lame. How do you even know it's going to be a 7 year deal? Max Pac and Shattenkirk took lower term deals at roughly the same age. I don't even want the guy but some of you are twisting yourselves into knots over this, it's comical.

 

[Edge]

It cannot be stated enough...the players that many are counting to make up the core have yet to play a minute of hockey for the Rangers. There are a lot of assumptions that are being made that I do not yet feel comfortable agreeing with.

And that’s a standout element for me. Right now, one could argue that the prospects/rookies with perhaps the most upside of anyone in our organization, are all teenagers and/or haven’t played one second of NHL hockey.

That’s somewhat uncharted waters for us. We’re used to seeing kids at 20, 21 or even 22. And that’s a lot different than looking at a kid who is 18 or 19. Even with those kids we saw in their early 20s, who were never seen as having the upside of what we currently have in the system, we still had some idea of how they looked against NHL competition. That’s a key difference when talking about how things look in July 2019 versus July 2020 or July 2021.

In every conversation we have concerning Panarin, inevitably timetables come up. Again, some are more liberal, others are more conservative. But I’d prefer the flexibility to find out naturally and not feel like a timer is looming over this whole endeavor. To some extent it will no matter what direction we go. But I don’t know if I want to place additional emphasis on it.

In my opinion, if we sign a guy like Panarin, it will impact the clock. I don’t see anyway it doesn’t. Not at the salary he is likely to command. Not at the term he is likely to get. And not with a window that, even optimistically, has this team coming into its own when he is entering his 30s.

 

[charliemurphy]

Getting a kick out of the folks that want the roster to only be filled by players the Rangers drafted and aren't under 30. Edmonton Oilers fan base could use some of you.

 

[FJB]

Who cares? If we rebuild the right way chances are we wont even need to sign that guy.

A couple more lottery picks would be nice for the rebuild. I just looked at a UFA tracker for the heck of it for the next 3 years, and there's not much of 27/28 year olds (I don't think players like Forsberg or Landeskog make it to free agency):

2021 NHL Free Agents Tracker

 

[Leetch3]

Will any forward comparable or better than Panarin (especially in terms of age/production) actually become UFA in 2020? 2021? 2022?

that doesn't make signing panarin the right move though. that just means that when the time is right we'll need to use our surplus of prospects and picks to trade for that piece

 

[TheBloodyNine]

A couple more lottery picks would be nice for the rebuild. I just looked at a UFA tracker for the heck of it for the next 3 years, and there's not much of 27/28 year olds (I don't think players like Forsberg or Landeskog make it to free agency):

2021 NHL Free Agents Tracker

We gotta get rid of this old style of thinking that was the Rangers from years past where they relied on UFAs. We relied on them because we didn't have prospects in the system who could potentially replace them. Now we are doing nothing but accumulating assets. That's what the rebuild is all about.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

And that’s a standout element for me. Right now, one could argue that the prospects/rookies with perhaps the most upside of anyone in our organization, are all teenagers and/or haven’t played one second of NHL hockey.

That’s somewhat unchartered waters for us. We’re used to seeing kids at 20, 21 or even 22. And that’s a lot different than looking at a kid who is 18 or 19. Even if those kids we saw in their early 20s were never seen as having the upside of what we currently have in the system, we still had some idea of what they looked like against NHL competition. That’s a key difference when talking about things look in July 2019 versus July 2020 or July 2021.

In every conversation we have concerning Panarin, inevitably timetables come up. Again, some are more liberal, others are more conservative. But I’d prefer the flexibility to find out naturally and not feel like a timer is looming over this whole endeavor. To some extent it will no matter what direction we go. But I don’t know if I want to place additional emphasis on it.

In my opinion, if we sign a guy like Panarin, it will impact the clock. I don’t see anyway it doesn’t. Not at the salary he is likely to command. Not at the term he is likely to get. And not with a window that, even optimistically, has this team coming into its own when he is entering his 30s.

I hear you get inside info so maybe you know. Say the Rangers finish at the bottom of the trash heap next season and land, a top 5 pick. Is this mystical rebuild finally over? Is it ok for fans to start thinking about winning then? What happens if the ping pong balls don't go their way? Do they hold off another year? What happens if Kravtsov and Chytil don't pan out? How long does that set this rebuild back? I get the sense people are waiting for every star in the universe to align. I don't think you run a franchise like that.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Getting a kick out of the folks that want the roster to only be filled by players the Rangers drafted and aren't under 30. Edmonton Oilers fan base could use some of you.

Literately no one has said this

 

[charliemurphy]

Literately no one has said this

Literally? They don't have to say it in a post... its been coming through between the lines in a lot of drivel around here lately. I blame the time of year, anxiety and perhaps allergies are blocking oxygen to the brain.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

We gotta get rid of this old style of thinking that was the Rangers from years past where they relied on UFAs. We relied on them because we didn't have prospects in the system who could potentially replace them. Now we are doing nothing but accumulating assets. That's what the rebuild is all about.

What old style of thinking are you talking about? There's 4 players on this roster from the cup run. They've traded their captain, their #1 center, four of their most productive offensive players, signed no big name free agents and had three teenagers and a bunch of young defenseman in the lineup most of last season. That's the old Ranger way???? What makes you an expert on rebuilds?

 

[Edge]

I hear you get inside info so maybe you know. Say the Rangers finish at the bottom of the trash heap next season and land, a top 5 pick. Is this mystical rebuild finally over? Is it ok for fans to start thinking about winning then? What happens if the ping pong balls don't go their way? Do they hold off another year? What happens if Kravtsov and Chytil don't pan out? How long does that set this rebuild back? I get the sense people are waiting for every star in the universe to align. I don't think you run a franchise like that.

I don't think it's necessarily about every star in the universe to align, so much as feeling like you want to have as many supplies as you can carry before you set out into the wilderness. Obviously at some point you gotta get your ass out the door, but I'm not quite sure the Rangers are there yet. I think they're closer, and I think different things falling in line could push them closer to feeling like they are ready to walk through the door.

When I look at next year's team, I see a finish close to where we are this season. I think there's an opportunity to come away with one more elite, high-upside prospect, even if we don't win the lottery or pick in the top 5. I've always seen the 2020 draft as the last of the "packing" phase.

Right now, with or without Panarin, I do not think we will have the high-end potential we will need for the long run. I think our strength lies in having great prospect depth, and a bunch of guys who can potentially fill important roles on the team, but I do think we need we will need a little more on top of Kakko, Kravtsov, Miller and maybe Chytil. I think we can get that, with even a decent pick in 2020. I think we can especially get that if we have a decent pick and some combination of a first from Dallas and a first for Kreider. So I don't think it's ping-pong balls or bust. But I also think that helps offset the question you asked about someone not panning out.

I think once we move beyond the "packing" phase, there's going to be a lot of hiking involved. The reality is that there will probably be some stumbles, some scrapes and some things that don't going according to plan. If anything, that reinforces my desire to get the best value we can from the 2020 draft before we head out. I tend to think that this part of the process is also the one that a lot of people don't fully take into account, or kind of gloss over. We're not likely to go from leaving the cabin to reaching the mountain top overnight. There's likely going to be at least a season where we're somewhat in the middle (2020-21) and a season where things are coming together, but still has some noticeable holes (2021-22). To me, it's around that time, 2021, where we have a good idea of what we have, what we need, and what its going to cost to get it.

Now, I do think there are things that could impact the Rangers approach.

It's become apparent to me that there are guys the Rangers have ranked near the top of this draft that they really want. Speculation about names aside, and ignoring where the Rangers think said players will be drafted, I definitely think there's a desire to be more aggressive in this draft. Is there the opportunity to do so? I don't know.

But let's say the Rangers find a path forward. For shits and giggles let's say they move Kreider and get into a position to grab a player they like. That very well could impact their approach. I could see a scenario where they apply Kreider's salary and term to Panarin, feel content knowing they took big upside talent in this draft, and feel comfortable with the possibility of two firsts next year and a chance to sign Trouba. I think that scenario is very much in play. How much of it depends on moving Kreider and some of the factors, I can't really say. But I think the odds go up if more of those elements start to materialize in the next month.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

What old style of thinking are you talking about? There's 4 players on this roster from the cup run. They've traded their captain, their #1 center, four of their most productive offensive players, signed no big name free agents and had three teenagers and a bunch of young defenseman in the lineup most of last season. That's the old Ranger way???? What makes you an expert on rebuilds?

From the lockout on the Rangers ranged from mediocre to very good. At no point did they bottom out and get chances to stockpile multiple high-end draft picks. They also traded away A LOT of draft picks. They never drafted a forward who has broken 60 points. That caused a need to supplement the team with UFAs. That is the old Ranger way. And a number of Rangers fan still possess this mindset. That is not how you build a team, and that is not how the Rangers are building their team.