Rumor: Pagnotta: Keep an eye on DAL/NSH/VGK/CHI if Marner is shopped

[BB88]

Nashville - Saros (Extended - 8M per for 7 years) + L'Heureux + Schenn (2.75M per for 2 years)

Dallas - Hintz (8.45M per for 7 years) + Marchment (50% retained - 2.25M per for 2 years) + 2024 1st (29th-32nd)

Vegas - Theodore (Extended - 8M per for 7 years) + Hill (Extended - 6.5M per for 4 years)

Chicago - Jones (1.5M retained - 8M per for 6 years) + Leafs 2025 1st + 2024 2nd (34th overall)

Toronto is never ever getting Hintz for Marner let alone Hintz+

Stoo with the madness already

The dallas package is not gonna happen that îs a Dream for the leafs, but the other packages are garbage, haters can say that the want about Marner but he îs a star în this League, playoffs choker or not there are 14 teams every year who dont make the playoffs and would love to have him to help them get to the playoffs...

How many of those 14 teams have a legit chance at getting Marner extended?

 

[Sniper99]

There’s been multiple reports he was willing to waive last off season.

Ahh HF where people like to think they're Elliote Friedman. Where are these said reports, "just google it" because I know that bullshit is coming. I did and didnt find any "reports"

 

[x Tame Impala]

Zero interest in giving Marner a 7-8 year deal for $11.5-12.5m AAV or whatever he'd want. If the Hawks are involved in a Marner deal I hope it's just as a 3rd team retaining half his salary

 

[I am Canadian]

I'm suprised that Leafs fans think Marner will just roll over and die and wave the NMC just to help the team out if they make him feel *unwanted* enough. If anything wouldn't he try to stay in spite and leave as a ufa? Maybe it ticks him off and he wants to be a villain now

He's all about money and this hurts him in two ways:

1) He won't be able to sign an 8 year extension
2) The constant pressure of performing in a contract year is not going to have him play his best hockey

 

[SEALBound]

Why do the Leafs make that trade? They are trying to compete for a cup and are trading a prime aged 100 point Selke winger for prospects?

Because I think you'll be lucky to get even that.

I hate to be the one break to TML fans...again...but there isn't a tremendous amount of leverage from their side to get a high return to Marner. 31 teams know they want a major change, he has one year left and will want mega cash, he's a playoff ghost, he has a full NMC...there just isn't much room for them to press teams. The only thing they can bank on is another team saying "we want Marner". Now, sure, there will be teams after him, but it's not like it's going to turn into a bidding war with some of the returns being thrown around here by TML fans.

I think you'd be DAMN lucky to get Bourque+Bischel. Pulling two quality prospects and opening up $10mil in cap space would be a grand slam for Treliving. To the point where, now that I continue to think about it, I'm not entirely sure Dallas even does.

 

[BB88]

Because I think you'll be lucky to get even that.

I hate to be the one break to TML fans...again...but there isn't a tremendous amount of leverage from their side to get a high return to Marner. 31 teams know they want a major change, he has one year left and will want mega cash, he's a playoff ghost, he has a full NMC...there just isn't much room for them to press teams. The only thing they can bank on is another team saying "we want Marner". Now, sure, there will be teams after him, but it's not like it's going to turn into a bidding war with some of the returns being thrown around here by TML fans.

I think you'd be DAMN lucky to get Bourque+Bischel. Pulling two quality prospects and opening up $10mil in cap space would be a grand slam for Treliving. To the point where, now that I continue to think about it, I'm not entirely sure Dallas even does.

Marner just doesn’t make any sense for Dallas

They should just focus on being able to re-sign Harley/Johnson/Stankoven/Robertson in the near future and add more quality to their defense, not offense

& no way could they just take Marner without dumping ton of cap

 

[belair]

Call me crazy, but Seattle isn't going to let Adam Larsson, no matter how good he's been for them, get in the way of acquiring Mitch Marner, if indeed Marner is willing to go there, etc.

Your assertion that the Leafs need to get something that helps them both now and in the future is correct, but with the 3 pieces you've laid out, are missing the "meaningful" or "positive" contributions. These guys literally "check boxes", without any consideration of whether a team like Toronto would even want them, even if it was free.

Burakovsky is a cap dump at this point, and likely holds negative value. If the Leafs are looking to spend $5.5m on a winger, they would be better off simply re-signing Tyler Bertuzzi.

I don't think they'd have Larsson on the table whatsoever. He's a part of their leadership core and he's a type of player who is fairly limited in today's NHL. He's helped unlock a high-end part of Vince Dunn's game and the result has been a reliable top pairing right out of the gate. A flashy player won't convince them to move away from that. Doubtful that Larsson would want the move also.

I'm not sure what you mean by "meaningful" or "positive" contributions. I think what you mean to say is established elite, and my argument is suggesting that isn't the best use of Marner as a tradeable asset, because those trades end up being closer to one-for-one and the majority of those established elite players will generally eat up the majority of that cap.

Burakovsky comes in and puts up Bertuzzi's numbers this season, Shane Wright plays a rookie season mostly in Toronto's middle six looking like a responsible two-way guy, 30 points out of the gate and Nelson starts his pro career off on the right foot... Are the Leafs any worse off knowing that the other $6m in cap flexibility is being used to bring in a significant piece on D?

That is how the Leafs increase their available depth. Marner's outgoing contract would facilitate the addition of three active roster players--two forwards in their top nine and whoever the other ~$6m would go towards.

Shane Wright is a guy who's development has nearly flat-lined since the draft 2 years ago. That's a massive red flag for a player's long term upside, and he looks a lot more like a future Alexandre Daigle than Patrice Bergeron. Toronto has Fraser Minten, who they would probably prefer to get the spot in the lineup.

The prospect you've included, maybe he's appealing, maybe he's not, but he's a prospect... and we have not addressed anythign in terms of meaningful contribution to the Leafs in the now or short term.

If Marner goes, the base, base requirement for any deal is that the Leafs have to get back at least one "top half of the lineup" player with a good contract situation. Can be a right shot defenceman with size, can be a #2 centre, or can be a 50-60 point winger; although I think the winger would be the least desirable of the 3 options.

Burakovsky and Wright do not meet any of those criteria. The Leafs offer for Burakovsky & Wright should probably be Nick Robertson; recognizing that Burakovsky is negative value, and Wright's value is more than Robertson's.... not Mitch Marner.

Shane Wright's 20 year old season this year has calmed a lot of the doubts that he had coming out of the draft. Seattle fans would rightfully hesitate at making this deal because Wright is projecting as a solid middle of the roster two way forward as a projected floor. More hype than any prospect in the Leafs organization currently. And a high ceiling at C where the Leafs may soon have a bit of a depth issue. Still actively playing on a Coachella team with Calder Cup aspirations.

We're on different ends of the spectrum when it comes to valuating these players.

Even Burakovsky. When healthy, he's been on par with Bertuzzi looking at the recent histories of production in these players. The vast difference is the style of play. Burakovsky has the edge in playoff production and overall experience though considering he had two Cup rings at 26.

Like I said before, this trade isn't the flash of a Seth Jones or a Jusse Saros trade. But the return offers the Leafs a longer upward trajectory. And it creates a significant amount of cap flexibility for them moving forwards.

 

[MCR74]

Look at the first time Karlsson got traded. Multiple time Norris winner, 27-28 years old. Literally a top 5 defenseman in the world. Almost dragged the Senators to a cup appearance the year before.

#4 defenseman in Demelo, middle six forward in Tierney, two good but not blue chip prospects in Norris and Balcers and a second and first round pick (Which became Stutzle because the Sharks unexpectedly stunk, very lucky for the Sens)

This is the type of return Leafs fans need to expect. Teams will simply not give away the high value players and picks Leafs fans are clamouring for here. Asking for Harley or Vlasic is delusional.

This. The return won't be phenomenal, that's for sure. The only positive is knowing the other team will sign Marner to a ridiculous amount and have absolutely nothing to show for it in the post-season.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Pagnotta doesn’t know his face from his ass cheeks.

Anybody who follows hockey has figured these are the suitors.

 

[Breakers]

Marner has the best negotiating position in the league if he stays in toronto.

Darren Ferris simply says
More than nylander
less than Matthews
Now go

And he’ll get it relatively easily
He won’t have that same baseline if Toronto gets rid of him, and no More massive SB’s

 

[HockeyVirus]

Because I think you'll be lucky to get even that.

I hate to be the one break to TML fans...again...but there isn't a tremendous amount of leverage from their side to get a high return to Marner. 31 teams know they want a major change, he has one year left and will want mega cash, he's a playoff ghost, he has a full NMC...there just isn't much room for them to press teams. The only thing they can bank on is another team saying "we want Marner". Now, sure, there will be teams after him, but it's not like it's going to turn into a bidding war with some of the returns being thrown around here by TML fans.

I think you'd be DAMN lucky to get Bourque+Bischel. Pulling two quality prospects and opening up $10mil in cap space would be a grand slam for Treliving. To the point where, now that I continue to think about it, I'm not entirely sure Dallas even does.

You are wrong. Teams are not interested ins crewing over the Leafs they are interested in improving their team. Marner has a lot of value to give to a franchise. Only need a few teams interested to get the return where it needs to be and there will be many teams interested

 

[MCR74]

He got married last summer and I am pretty sure he was on honeymoon phase and dint' put in any work in the summer so he basically SUCKED last year given his cap hit

He was still on his honeymoon during the Boston series.

 

[JKG33]

Look at the first time Karlsson got traded. Multiple time Norris winner, 27-28 years old. Literally a top 5 defenseman in the world. Almost dragged the Senators to a cup appearance the year before.

#4 defenseman in Demelo, middle six forward in Tierney, two good but not blue chip prospects in Norris and Balcers and a second and first round pick (Which became Stutzle because the Sharks unexpectedly stunk, very lucky for the Sens)

This is the type of return Leafs fans need to expect. Teams will simply not give away the high value players and picks Leafs fans are clamouring for here. Asking for Harley or Vlasic is delusional.

Pretty much this. Although I will say Karlsson's inability to play defence with a huge cap hit helped the tank. I think any team adding Marner at a huge cap hit would hurt a team more than help

 

[Brew]

Chicago (a team in a total rebuild) doesn’t offer a top pairing Dman on an ELC for a guy who in a year will destroy their salary structure.
Look at what adding Tavares led Toronto to do with AM, MM and to a lesser extent Nylander.
Marner will want 11.5 or 12.0 a year. … What are you then paying Bedard?

I don't disagree, but we're not taking that return for Marner lol. That doesn't help us, we need more experienced players.

Mitch Marner
Timothy Liljegren
2024 1st (23rd overall)

For

Seth Jones (@ 5M)


If Blackhawks are keen to overpay a bunch of dusters might as well pick up some assets for the wasted cap.

Terrible for Toronto, again lol. Jones is NOT what Toronto needs.

 

[93gilmour93]

Leafs fans are gonna be very underwhelmed with the return.

Marner holds the cards, and the other team has to pay him big money.

To a certain extent he definitely holds the cards. That being said if he stays in Toronto and walks as a ufa he gives up an 8th year of a contract which is another 11-12 million dollars and the Marner camp doesn't like losing out on any money.

Also if it gets out that Marner blocked a few trades and comes back to training camp that's going to be a shit show with the fans all over him all year. Why would he want to deal with that all season?

If he's told by the Leafs we won't be offering you a new deal, it's smart for him to play ball in a trade that gets him the 8th year on the deal and letting a few teams bid on him will get the Leafs a better return and his camp knows whoever he gets traded to will give him that fat contract

 

[dj Mahoney]

Just like when Kane said he would only play with the Rangers , Marner is a Ufa with a no trade contract . Leaf's will get whatever a team is nice enough to offer . His agent is holding all the cards.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Marner is not going to bring back what Leafs fans would want. Having a nmc plus being being a ufa next year diminishes his value.

My guess it is a 1st + another draft pick + prospect.

most likely but I feel like thats how majority of deals in real life go compared to what posters think the return would be

 

[BrettHullsToe]

Dallas doesn't need Marner and is only being included in this list because the Leafs are trying to negotiate through the media. Dallas is the #1 impediment for Vegas and Nashville making Cup runs next season, so this is how you try to boost the offers from those teams (though I doubt their GMs are dumb enough to buy it).

 

[MCR74]

To a certain extent he definitely holds the cards. That being said if he stays in Toronto and walks as a ufa he gives up an 8th year of a contract which is another 11-12 million dollars and the Marner camp doesn't like losing out on any money.

Also if it gets out that Marner blocked a few trades and comes back to training camp that's going to be a shit show with the fans all over him all year. Why would he want to deal with that all season?

If he's told by the Leafs we won't be offering you a new deal, it's smart for him to play ball in a trade that gets him the 8th year on the deal and letting a few teams bid on him will get the Leafs a better return and his camp knows whoever he gets traded to will give him that fat contract

l'm sorta hoping the Leafs say F it and Marner walks to free agency. lt would suck losing him for nothing, but the team needs a change.

 

[AcerComputer]

So Vegas is just allowed to ignore the cap now?

They could put 2 of Hill, Barbashev, Theodore into the trade, or all 3. Leafs could also put Jarnkrok in the deal, at a $2m cap hit, which would give VGK good cap flexibility. TOR could also retain $1m-3m to even everything out.

 

[JKG33]

They could put 2 of Hill, Barbashev, Theodore into the trade, or all 3. Leafs could also put Jarnkrok in the deal, at a $2m cap hit, which would give VGK good cap flexibility. TOR could also retain $1m-3m to even everything out.

Why would Vegas wanna gut their depth for an overpaid winger? You win cups with depth. The whole league seen that the no depth experiment didn't work in Toronto for 5 years and counting

 

[francis246]

Ahh HF where people like to think they're Elliote Friedman. Where are these said reports, "just google it" because I know that bullshit is coming. I did and didnt find any "reports"

This was actually in the athletic reported by Jonas Siegel, so unless you have a subscription to the athletic you’d miss it. The athletic is pretty good with their reporting. CJ also confirmed that last year Marner was open to waiving if asked but isn’t sure if that’s the case this season. So gtfo, look harder next time

 

[Johno]

Stars value character, which of Marner brings none to the table. No thank you, have fun being out in the first round, Mitch

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Vegas could make it work if Toronto wants a hockey trade. Hill+Karlsson as a base works cap wise in the short term.

 

[BB88]

Vegas could make it work if Toronto wants a hockey trade. Hill+Karlsson as a base works cap wise in the short term.

Vegas would lose a helluva amount of depth if they end up trading for Marner