P.K. Subban Thread - Mk III - Unsigned Edition

[PricePkPatch*]

Considering the Edler contract, that is a little but high, but not insanely high. I can see this being a problem though considering PK is younger than Edler and only on his second contract with 3 years less experience in the league. 4.5 / 6 years would seem more consistent but I still think a shorter contract benefits Subban best.

Off course. If Subban renegotiate another contract in 2 years and he has started reaching his full potential, he'll get a bank-breaking contract, for sure. That would be better for him.

But.. what if he wants a long-term contract instead of the big money 2 years down the road? What if he wants a commitment on the part of the Habs' management?

I cannot blame Subban for wanting to settle long-term and not having to go through this again in 2 years. And if we do sign him 5M/6y, he may turn out to be a great bargain 4 years down the road.

 

[onebighockeyfan]

In term of probability, how would you assess PK's potential to show he's better than Edler in the next 2 years?

I think it is quite high actually, PK has a ton of untaped potential. 75% or so I guess. There's nothing certain in life, so I could be wrong. That's why I would not base contract offers too much on potential. The best thing for the Habs and PK is to sign a two year deal at about 4 million, rack up 60 points both years (or 30 or so this year, 60 next year) and then he can sign a contract much more lucrative than Edler's if he dramatically outperforms him. Then he would have earned, based on performance, 6+ / long term.

 

[onebighockeyfan]

Off course. If Subban renegotiate another contract in 2 years and he has started reaching his full potential, he'll get a bank-breaking contract, for sure. That would be better for him.

But.. what if he wants a long-term contract instead of the big money 2 years down the road? What if he wants a commitment on the part of the Habs' management?

I cannot blame Subban for wanting to settle long-term and not having to go through this again in 2 years. And if we do sign him 5M/6y, he may turn out to be a great bargain 4 years down the road.

I agree, if Subban is asking for something like MaxPack (~4.5 / 7 years) and Bergevin is not going for this I think that's bad management. I would have no problem with that. However, I suspect that PK is asking much more and that's the core issue. But I don't really know.

 

[Rickkins]

I think they should tell us exactly what each side is asking/offering so that we can properly dissect this situation.
Yes, I think that would be best.

 

[habspinner]

Quite frankly I find this whole thing ridiculous on behalf of both parties involved. I despise the practice of holding out, and my opinion on Doughty dropped pretty significantly last year after his stunt of wanting to be his team's highest paid player. But his tantrum finally worked and Lombardi caved to his demands - I suspect the same will happen for Bergevin.

Obviously I don't know the whole story, but what I do know is that it has been a very, very long time since an NHL player has missed significant time from the season because of a contract impasse. I know that this year is different because of the lockout, but nonetheless this is a sad, sad state of affairs.

I like PK, I like Bergevin - but I doubt my opinion of either of them will not be affected negatively going forward after this mess. I think it's been handled poorly on both sides.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

I think it is quite high actually, PK has a ton of untaped potential. 75% or so I guess. There's nothing certain in life, so I could be wrong. That's why I would not base contract offers too much on potential. The best thing for the Habs and PK is to sign a two year deal at about 4 million, rack up 60 points both years (or 30 or so this year, 60 next year) and then he can sign a contract much more lucrative than Edler's if he dramatically outperforms him. Then he would have earned, based on performance, 6+ / long term.

You do know that the way probability works, you could be right on the number and Subban still could potentially not overcome Edler? That's how probability works.

You can always roll a natural 1 in life...

 

[onebighockeyfan]

You do know that the way probability works, you could be right on the number and Subban still could potentially not overcome Edler? That's how probability works.

You can always roll a natural 1 in life...

I know that. That't the reason why a 2 year contract is useful.

 

[BLONG7]

Quite frankly I find this whole thing ridiculous on behalf of both parties involved. I despise the practice of holding out, and my opinion on Doughty dropped pretty significantly last year after his stunt of wanting to be his team's highest paid player. But his tantrum finally worked and Lombardi caved to his demands - I suspect the same will happen for Bergevin.

Obviously I don't know the whole story, but what I do know is that it has been a very, very long time since an NHL player has missed significant time from the season because of a contract impasse. I know that this year is different because of the lockout, but nonetheless this is a sad, sad state of affairs.

I like PK, I like Bergevin - but I doubt my opinion of either of them will not be affected negatively going forward after this mess. I think it's been handled poorly on both sides.

I couldn't agree more, and just coming out of a lockout, MB and Meehan look like Bettman and Fehr...very sad indeed...

 

[PricePkPatch*]

I know that. That't the reason why a 2 year contract is useful.

Indeed. But sometimes you gotta play the odds and go for the best bet. You can always lose, but it's still might be the best bet on the table.

Do you think, considering future cap projection (both increase and decrease) and Subban's development probability curve, that 5M$/year in 3-4 years will be a bargain or an overpayment?

 

[PricePkPatch*]

I couldn't agree more, and just coming out of a lockout, MB and Meehan look like Bettman and Fehr...very sad indeed...

To be honest, IMHO, it shows that maybe Bettman and Fehr weren't so selfish ****** but simply two professional negotiators locked in a harsh nego. They struck a final deal when then clock started ticking very strongly.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

You're trying too hard to prove your point and you look ridiculous in the process.
Everybody loves PK but you don't need to put him on a pedestal. You're contributing dangerously to his endlessly growing ego

Yeah ok, so you have nothing to say, got it.

 

[onebighockeyfan]

Indeed. But sometimes you gotta play the odds and go for the best bet. You can always lose, but it's still might be the best bet on the table.

Do you think, considering future cap projection (both increase and decrease) and Subban's development probability curve, that 5M$/year in 3-4 years will be a bargain or an overpayment?

I think 5 million for 3 years is a little high. I think 4 million is what PK is worth right now and so not to penalize PK to much if he thinks he's worth much more than that, make it two years. If he continues to progress then he gets the big bucks after that. I don't like playing odds and being stuck with an albatros contract.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

To be honest, IMHO, it shows that maybe Bettman and Fehr weren't so selfish ****** but simply two professional negotiators locked in a harsh nego. They struck a final deal when then clock started ticking very strongly.

This is the truth. The situation is that if both Fehr and Bettman had went to their employers with the same deal back in september, they would have been told to go back to the table and ask for a little more.

They had to go through the process and extract as much as possible. The end result is a relatively minor loss of 30ish games. Not the end of the world.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

I think 5 million for 3 years is a little high. I think 4 million is what PK is worth right now and so not to penalize PK to much if he thinks he's worth much more than that, make it two years. If he continues to progress then he gets the big bucks after that. I don't like playing odds and being stuck with an albatros contract.

I said 5M for 6 years.

I just asked if, in 3-4 years, you think he will be worth more, considering the cap at this point.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

Well, look at the bright side, folks are always saying I underrate our team so... if I'm underrating him saying he could be a HOF player, then he'll probably become the next Bobby Orr.

In this thread I've been told that I am biased.

I find this funny considering I've been so negative over the direction of this team over the past 3-4 years. And also negative toward a lot of players on the habs.

 

[onebighockeyfan]

I said 5M for 6 years.

I just asked if, in 3-4 years, you think he will be worth more, considering the cap at this point.

Sorry, I though you meant a 3-4 yeardeal. 5M for 6 years is an interesting deal. Seems to me that's its the absolute max considering the contract Edler just signed. Giving PK that contract would be a huge vote of confidence from the organization and I don't think he completely earned it yet. He would be getting paid more than every player on the team except Markov. I think it's just too early, he needsto prove himself a little bit more or sing long-term for less than 5 million.

 

[onebighockeyfan]

I said 5M for 6 years.

I just asked if, in 3-4 years, you think he will be worth more, considering the cap at this point.

And to answer the second part, I think that if Subban signs a 6 year / 30 million he will likely be worth more than 5 million a year in years 3--4 so he would likely be a bargain. I would feel more comfortable if he was signed to his current worth though.

 

[swimmer77]

I think 5 million for 3 years is a little high. I think 4 million is what PK is worth right now and so not to penalize PK to much if he thinks he's worth much more than that, make it two years. If he continues to progress then he gets the big bucks after that. I don't like playing odds and being stuck with an albatros contract.

If Josh Gorges is worth 3.9 then PK is worth 5 mil - easily.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

And to answer the second part, I think that if Subban signs a 6 year / 30 million he will likely be worth more than 5 million a year in years 3--4 so he would likely be a bargain. I would feel more comfortable if he was signed to his current worth though.

Dude, everybody would be more comfortable if every players we signed were paid their CURRENT worth.

But you and I know it's not gonna happen. Sometimes you gotta make long-term investment, and I believe that's what Subban wants to get from management.

So... anybody opposes the fairness of a 30M/6 years deal?

 

[onebighockeyfan]

If Josh Gorges is worth 3.9 then PK is worth 5 mil - easily.

If Scott Gomes was worth 7.25 million, Subban is worth 15 million...I don't like the logic you are using.

You need to compare players that have similar styles/roles and experience. MDZ, Edler, Letang are more similar to PK for example. Compare PK to young offensive minded defensemen. Now you can bring up Kaberle at 4.5 million but the guy is a veteran, has had 13 or so 30+point seasons, a career best 67 points and similar PPG last year with the Habs. And many of us think he's overpaid.

The other difference is that PK's salary is likely to go up in his next contract, he just has to work for it a little bit longer. Gorges' will not, he is what he is.

 

[Sterling Archer]

No one but the parties involved know exactly what's going on. That being said, just about every defenseman signing that's occurred post lock out are not helping PK. They all seem extremely reasonable and some seem down right cheap. I can help but wonder if these signings are weighing on him and making him reconsider his stance to something more reasonable? I hope it is as sitting out is not benefitting either party and PK still needs to play to keep improving.

 

[onebighockeyfan]

Dude, everybody would be more comfortable if every players we signed were paid their CURRENT worth.

But you and I know it's not gonna happen. Sometimes you gotta make long-term investment, and I believe that's what Subban wants to get from management.

So... anybody opposes the fairness of a 30M/6 years deal?

To state my position VERY clearly, I think it's a little high but could live with 30M/6 ears. Anything more than 5 miilion a year I let PK sit at home. He does not deserve this yet.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

To state my position VERY clearly, I think it's a little high but could live with 30M/6 ears. Anything more than 5 miilion a year I let PK sit at home. He does not deserve this yet.

I'd love 30m/6years. I think he'll get 6 per year. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

In this thread I've been told that I am biased.

I find this funny considering I've been so negative over the direction of this team over the past 3-4 years. And also negative toward a lot of players on the habs.

It is funny to hear it. Love when I'm on the main boards and somebody says "you're only saying the Habs are better than the Leafs because you're a Hab fan..." I tell them to go read my posts.

As for PK, I realize that this guy has a long way to go to become a HOFer and it is absurd to have a serious discussion about this now. I was highly skeptical of him when he came up but he's really proved to be a great blueliner and I'm just basing it off his talent and age. I think he's got HOF talent in him. Whether he realizes that talent or not is the big question. Lots of players had HOF talent (Alexei Kovalev anyone?) and never put it together so you never know...

 

[onebighockeyfan]

I'd love 30m/6years. I think he'll get 6 per year. I hope I'm wrong.

I would hate that to. Way to much. That would make him the 12th best paid D in the entire league and the only one in that group that never played in an all star game (from memory, I did not double check this). He's not there yet. He might get there on day though.