Prior to the season, I was fairly optimistic on Matthews’s chances at being a real threat to whatever Ovechkin’s final tally ends up being, but that was before Ovechkin soaked back 10 more goals on his lead while being 12 years older. It’s also starting to look like that he might end up with 940+, if he truly retires at the end of 2025-2026. If he plays longer than expected, forget it. 1000 would push it out of reach for a very long time.
Matthews needed to have 440 at the end of this season and Ovechkin needed to be at about 875 for this to be semi-feasible. It’s not out of the realm that Ovechkin hits 900 and Matthews fails to notch his 400th. A 500 goal deficit on a forward moving target seems like it can’t be made up.
Even if overall scoring hasn’t plateaued or god forbid, continues to start ticking down again, Ovechkin seems safe and will probably hold this record for as long as Howe and Gretzky did, combined.