Ovechkin milestone thread - 850 and Beyond!

[andrjusha]

They'll probably keep leapfrogging each other in career points based on who has been heathier recently. At this point, it is a durability race.

Yeah, It is durability vs pace race with regards to points, Crosby has higher PPG in every one of the last 12 seasons, as every Penguin knows.
Last season Goat Grinder had 0.0485 PPG advantage which is 4 points over 82 games.
So OV needs to play 3 more games than Sid, assuming same pace this season, to stay ahead

 

[YippieKaey]

The discussion about adjusted stats in this thread is the best argument for why Ovi should just go ahead and score 895. Then, there will be no need to adjust his raw numbers and discussion will be pretty pointless.

 

[andrjusha]

The discussion about adjusted stats in this thread is the best argument for why Ovi should just go ahead and score 895. Then, there will be no need to adjust his raw numbers and discussion will be pretty pointless.

The problem with adjusted stats is that there are no good sources for it.
nhl.com does not have it.
And hockey-reference adjusted stats everyone cites are flawed for career totals.
Eg for 12-13 season it gives OV 62 adjusted goals in 48 games.
They normalized that shortened season to full 82 games which is fine for a single season. It does not make sense to sum those normalized seasons up. They simply need to remove number of games adjustment and it will make more sense. Somebody like @pnep could calculate it I am sure

 

[filinski77]

The problem with adjusted stats is that there are no good sources for it.
nhl.com does not have it.
And hockey-reference adjusted stats everyone cites are flawed for career totals.
Eg for 12-13 season it gives OV 62 adjusted goals in 48 games.
They normalized that shortened season to full 82 games which is fine for a single season. It does not make sense to sum those normalized seasons up. They simply need to remove number of games adjustment and it will make more sense. Somebody like @pnep could calculate it I am sure

I think that it's weird to adjust the 48 games up to 82 at face value, but it at least takes into account an opportunity cost that is due to business reasons instead of hockey related injuries or suspensions.

Regardless, Howe has all his 70-game seasons adjusted to 82 games, and if you take out those "extra" adjusted goals for both him and Ovechkin, I think you likely end up with Ovechkin already being the NHL all time leader in adjusted goals (not adjusted for season length).

 

[Hockey Outsider]

The VsX system is often used on the History forum. It isn't perfect (in the thread link below I talk about the shortcomings), but Ovechkin currently sits 2nd all-time in VsX adjusted goals. He jumped some big names last year.

Here's the top ten (the only players with 700+ adjusted goals):

Player	VsX - goals
Gordie Howe	1,181
Alex Ovechkin	870
Maurice Richard	863
Bobby Hull	829
Jaromir Jagr	821
Wayne Gretzky	784
Phil Esposito	775
Brett Hull	733
Jean Beliveau	726
Teemu Selanne	718

 

[Neil Racki]

I wonder is there any chance Ovi can age like Selanne or Jagr?

Ovie greeting reporters before tonights game

Seriously though, dudes 37 and has thrown his body around a ton, rarely misses games, noticeably lost some burst last few years

Jagr was a big fast physical guy early on but no way Selanne and Jagr beat their body up as bad as Ovie

I personally dont think Ovie adds 115 more goals to get to 895

 

[CokenoPepsi]

I wonder is there any chance Ovi can age like Selanne or Jagr?

He kinda already has.

People really overplay the ageless wonder thing when it comes to Jagr and Selanne.

They were still ok but heavily sheltered 50-60 point guys... Ovechkin is still scoring 50 goals..

 

[Hockey Outsider]

With 18 goals, Ovechkin will pass Howe for 2nd on the list of most combined regular season & playoff goals. Only 16 players have reached 700:

Rank	Player	RS	PO	Total
1	Wayne Gretzky	894	122​	1,016​
2	Gordie Howe	801	68​	869​
3	Alex Ovechkin	780	72​	852​
4	Jaromir Jagr	766	78​	844​
5	Brett Hull	741	103​	844​
6	Mark Messier	694	109​	803​
7	Phil Esposito	717	61​	778​
8	Mario Lemieux	690	76​	766​
9	Steve Yzerman	692	70​	762​
10	Marcel Dionne	731	21​	752​
11	Mike Gartner	708	43​	751​
12	Teemu Selanne	684	44​	728​
13	Luc Robitaille	668	58​	726​
14	Brendan Shanahan	656	60​	716​
15	Joe Sakic	625	84​	709​
16	Jari Kurri	601	106​	707​

Ovechkin could potentially become the 2nd player in NHL history to score 900 combined regular season & playoff goals by the end of this season.

 

[TJHKY]

 

[TJHKY]

 

[M2Beezy]

Here is the Great 8's first of the season

 

[Video Nasty]

The discussion about adjusted stats in this thread is the best argument for why Ovi should just go ahead and score 895. Then, there will be no need to adjust his raw numbers and discussion will be pretty pointless.

Doesn’t really matter. Current generation has been talking about him being the greatest since he scored 600. I think most have their minds made up at this point on where he stands, regardless of breaking the record or not.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Doesn’t really matter. Current generation has been talking about him being the greatest since he scored 600. I think most have their minds made up at this point on where he stands, regardless of breaking the record or not.

It’s because he’s broken most relevant goal related milestones for awhile now. He’s chasing major milestones but the most important(most rockets) is in the bag, so now he’s making it less of an argument and more of a ‘fact’

 

[Fantomas]

And hockey-reference adjusted stats everyone cites are flawed for career totals.
Eg for 12-13 season it gives OV 62 adjusted goals in 48 games.

They're not flawed, you just don't understand them. The 12-13 adjusted total of 62 is for an 82-game schedule.

 

[KCC]

Great to see him on the board with his first of the season. Hoping he Still has gas left in the tank to keep the chase going.

 

[andrjusha]

They're not flawed, you just don't understand them. The 12-13 adjusted total of 62 is for an 82-game schedule.

Re-read what I wrote pls, I was making a point in the next sentence, you missed it.

 

[ViD]

What the heck is he doing ? He ain’t gonna catch Gretzky with those pretty assists

 

[andrjusha]

With 1st goal of the game OV broke the tie with Brett Hull and now is second all-time in career 1Gs.
OV has 132 now, Jagr leads with 135.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

OV also ties Brett Hull in all-time lead in career go-ahead goals with 264.

Ovechkin milestone thread - 850 and Beyond!

forums.hfboards.com

(Those links will update counts tomorrow)

 

[andrjusha]

What the heck is he doing ? He ain’t gonna catch Gretzky with those pretty assists

"Must catch Sid points"

 

[Sinistril]

View attachment 592906

Ovie greeting reporters before tonights game

Seriously though, dudes 37 and has thrown his body around a ton, rarely misses games, noticeably lost some burst last few years

Jagr was a big fast physical guy early on but no way Selanne and Jagr beat their body up as bad as Ovie

I personally dont think Ovie adds 115 more goals to get to 895

Do you think he stops when he's 10 away? 20? 30? At what point will he not just saddle up and play a couple more seasons as a PP specialist? He's at 113 now with what, 4 years on his contract? Barring major injury, it's hard to see how he doesn't get there even if it he had to play for league minimum for a year or two once done thus contract. But he probably gets there in 2.5 years

 

[canuckking1]

What a night for the Great 8.

 

[Zuluss]

So now OV is a playmaker all of a sudden.

Today, Ovechkin passed Marleau, passed Spezza, and tied Theo Fleury in career assists.

Also, Ovechkin now passed Doug Gilmour in career points and is tied with Crosby at #19 all-time. Like I said, OV and Crosby will keep leapfrogging each other in career points for a long time.

 

[M2Beezy]

Ovechkin sunk the Canucks tonight. I mean, the Canucks kinda sunk themselves but Ovi was in classic Ovi fashion..

 

[Pip]

He won’t stop

 

[Fantomas]

They're not flawed, you just don't understand them. The 12-13 adjusted total of 62 is for an 82-game schedule.

Yup, I see. But flawed is not the word I would use. The calculations are all sound.