Fantomas
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2012
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Another thing to keep in mind about the clutch metrics is that Ovechkin has done this in a much lower-scoring era than Mario/Gretzky.
Another thing to keep in mind about the clutch metrics is that Ovechkin has done this in a much lower-scoring era than Mario/Gretzky.
The greats will do what they do regardless of era. Yes, there’s less goals to go around during most of Ovechkin’s career, but we have many examples of how when we’re talking about legends, it doesn’t matter how low or high league wide scoring is, they generally get theirs.
This is nonsense. Differences in league-wide scoring rates matter when assessing both skaters and goalies. Would you conclude then that every goalie in the 1980s is trash?
Interesting how era didn’t seem to matter for some of the all-time greats though.
You don't know what you're talking about.
I'm not particularly interested in debating your very uninformed arguments. If you think that 50 goals in a high-scoring context and 50 goals in a low scoring context are the same thing you should be on everyone's ignore list.
Can’t believe you researched the stats and came to this conclusion. Bure scored 110 and 107 points in those 92 and 93 seasons vs 92 and 94 points in 2000 and 2001 seasons. That’s a 15 point bump that he got from the higher scoring environment. That’s not insignificant.The greats will do what they do regardless of era. Yes, there’s less goals to go around during most of Ovechkin’s career, but we have many examples of how when we’re talking about legends, it doesn’t matter how low or high league wide scoring is, they generally get theirs.
Hence why you saw Mario drop:
85 goals and 199 points in 76 games (2.62 PPG) at age 23 when the scoring environment was 7.42 GPG in 1988-1989.
69 goals and 160 points in 60 games (2.67 PPG) at age 27 with the last 20 of those games coming after chemo treatments in a scoring environment of 7.26 GPG in 1992-1993.
69 goals and 161 points in 70 games (2.30 PPG) at age 30 when the scoring environment was 6.28 GPG in 1995-1996.
35 goals and 76 points in 43 games (1.77 PPG) at age 35 when the scoring environment was 5.52 PPG in 2000-2001
20 goals and 68 points in 40 games (41 team games-the half way point; 1.70 PPG at age 37 injuries and a horrible team sunk his second half. Scoring environment was 5.30 GPG in 2002-2003.
If it were as simple as Mario only put up more goals and points because league scoring was higher and thus Ovechkin is automatically better because scoring has been generally lower, then we wouldn’t have seen Mario score at similar rates, considering later years saw scoring a full 1, 1.5, even more than 2 goals lower than his seasons where he was younger, in his prime, and in some cases, actually pretty healthy by his standards.
It’s certainly not linear at any rate. Examples like this make it so I can never take adjusted stats seriously. We’ve seen the absolute best debunk this.
Another example is Bure potted 58 in 74 games and 59 in 82 games (and 13 in 11 games before these two seasons) in 1998-1999 and 1999-2000, scoring environments of 5.26 and 5.52. He was 28 and 29 years old.
If we isolate these seasons and then someone tells us that in 1992-1993 and 1993-1994, the scoring environments were 7.26 and 6.48 GPG, surely 21 and 22 year old Bure would score at a much higher rate considering he was younger and in prime goal scoring years with environments a full 1 and 2 goals lower.
Surely he should have had 70-80 goals when we go back and look?
No….he had 60 in 83 games and 60 in 76 games.
Hmm…
I’m not saying it doesn’t matter, but in the case of these all-time greats, era or even age sometimes doesn’t seem to matter.
goalies back then might be trash and slow..... but the players must have been at the same level.
gretzky and mario were not fast at all.
put them in todays NHL and they would not score 200 points or whatever amount of points they scored.
the players fit in their era......... or what?
Because the greats would be great in any era. Gretzky would still be the GOAT had he played today instead.The greats will do what they do regardless of era. Yes, there’s less goals to go around during most of Ovechkin’s career, but we have many examples of how when we’re talking about legends, it doesn’t matter how low or high league wide scoring is, they generally get theirs.
Hence why you saw Mario drop:
85 goals and 199 points in 76 games (2.62 PPG) at age 23 when the scoring environment was 7.42 GPG in 1988-1989.
69 goals and 160 points in 60 games (2.67 PPG) at age 27 with the last 20 of those games coming after chemo treatments in a scoring environment of 7.26 GPG in 1992-1993.
69 goals and 161 points in 70 games (2.30 PPG) at age 30 when the scoring environment was 6.28 GPG in 1995-1996.
35 goals and 76 points in 43 games (1.77 PPG) at age 35 when the scoring environment was 5.52 PPG in 2000-2001
20 goals and 68 points in 40 games (41 team games-the half way point; 1.70 PPG at age 37 injuries and a horrible team sunk his second half. Scoring environment was 5.30 GPG in 2002-2003.
If it were as simple as Mario only put up more goals and points because league scoring was higher and thus Ovechkin is automatically better because scoring has been generally lower, then we wouldn’t have seen Mario score at similar rates, considering later years saw scoring a full 1, 1.5, even more than 2 goals lower than his seasons where he was younger, in his prime, and in some cases, actually pretty healthy by his standards.
It’s certainly not linear at any rate. Examples like this make it so I can never take adjusted stats seriously. We’ve seen the absolute best debunk this.
Another example is Bure potted 58 in 74 games and 59 in 82 games (and 13 in 11 games before these two seasons) in 1998-1999 and 1999-2000, scoring environments of 5.26 and 5.52. He was 28 and 29 years old.
If we isolate these seasons and then someone tells us that in 1992-1993 and 1993-1994, the scoring environments were 7.26 and 6.48 GPG, surely 21 and 22 year old Bure would score at a much higher rate considering he was younger and in prime goal scoring years with environments a full 1 and 2 goals lower.
Surely he should have had 70-80 goals when we go back and look?
No….he had 60 in 83 games and 60 in 76 games.
Hmm…
I’m not saying it doesn’t matter, but in the case of these all-time greats, era or even age sometimes doesn’t seem to matter.
Because the greats would be great in any era. Gretzky would still be the GOAT had he played today instead.
goalies back then might be trash and slow..... but the players must have been at the same level.
gretzky and mario were not fast at all.
put them in todays NHL and they would not score 200 points or whatever amount of points they scored.
the players fit in their era......... or what?
Can’t believe you researched the stats and came to this conclusion. Bure scored 110 and 107 points in those 92 and 93 seasons vs 92 and 94 points in 2000 and 2001 seasons. That’s a 15 point bump that he got from the higher scoring environment. That’s not insignificant.
couldn't it just be he was that much older?Can’t believe you researched the stats and came to this conclusion. Bure scored 110 and 107 points in those 92 and 93 seasons vs 92 and 94 points in 2000 and 2001 seasons. That’s a 15 point bump that he got from the higher scoring environment. That’s not insignificant.
Gretzky would have scored more points in a season than Crosby or McDavid if he had been playing today??
Because the greats would be great in any era. Gretzky would still be the GOAT had he played today instead.
Yup. Nobody is claiming Gretzky wouldn't be the GOAT if he played in the cap-era. He'd still have gotten all his Harts and Rosses - but he would have much more likely had finished his career with 650 goals and 2,200 points for example.I notice that some people are a bit confused about adjusted stats, which means this needs to be clarified.
We're not talking about "what ifs" here. We don't know what Gretzky would do in a different era. He played when he played and produced well in his own time.
However - and read carefully - the value of a goal in his time was less than the value of a goal in a lower-scoring era. This is a very basic point.
Think of it this way. When a player averages a goal-per-game in a scoring environment where teams average 6 goals per game, he is producing less than a player producing a goal-per-game in a scoring environment where teams average 4 goals per game. The former player is significantly more valuable even though his raw stats are identical to the latter player.
In the same way, 50 goals scored in Ovechkin's time is worth more (provides more value) than 50 goals scored in, let's say, the mid-80s. This is pretty straight forward. And this is clear too when you look at player stats in the 1980s. There were literally dozens of 50-goal seasons in that decade, compared to a mere handful in Ovechkin's time.
I've also said before that I think very highly of Lemieux as a goal scorer and that I often consider him to be the best goal scorer of all time (I go back and forth between him and Ovechkin). So I'm not putting him down. But strictly on numbers, Ovechkin is the best scorer ever. Easily.
These are not hypotheticals, but regardless one can say with confidence that Gretzky was fortunate to play in a post-expansion run-and-gun era of the NHL. A time unlike no other in league's history. He doesn't score 92 goals if he's born 10 years earlier or even 10 years later. Ovechkin will still break his record nevertheless. He's almost there.
As it should. It will however have a pretty tough time washing away his activities outside of the rink.How upset are you going to be when history remembers Alex Ovechkin as the greatest goal scorer of all time?
You can't take isolated outlier examples like that to prove an era-wide point. If you're doing your best to find a small sample of data that fits your preconceived notion, chances are you will find it as well. Re: the Bure example, on top of his time on ice being in the 28 minute range when he scored 60 goals in the 2000s, he also scored substantially less points as has been pointed out here before. There are reasons why his Florida years aren't considered as impressive despite era-adjusted numbers.The greats will do what they do regardless of era. Yes, there’s less goals to go around during most of Ovechkin’s career, but we have many examples of how when we’re talking about legends, it doesn’t matter how low or high league wide scoring is, they generally get theirs.
Hence why you saw Mario drop:
85 goals and 199 points in 76 games (2.62 PPG) at age 23 when the scoring environment was 7.42 GPG in 1988-1989.
69 goals and 160 points in 60 games (2.67 PPG) at age 27 with the last 20 of those games coming after chemo treatments in a scoring environment of 7.26 GPG in 1992-1993.
69 goals and 161 points in 70 games (2.30 PPG) at age 30 when the scoring environment was 6.28 GPG in 1995-1996.
35 goals and 76 points in 43 games (1.77 PPG) at age 35 when the scoring environment was 5.52 PPG in 2000-2001
20 goals and 68 points in 40 games (41 team games-the half way point; 1.70 PPG at age 37 injuries and a horrible team sunk his second half. Scoring environment was 5.30 GPG in 2002-2003.
If it were as simple as Mario only put up more goals and points because league scoring was higher and thus Ovechkin is automatically better because scoring has been generally lower, then we wouldn’t have seen Mario score at similar rates, considering later years saw scoring a full 1, 1.5, even more than 2 goals lower than his seasons where he was younger, in his prime, and in some cases, actually pretty healthy by his standards.
It’s certainly not linear at any rate. Examples like this make it so I can never take adjusted stats seriously. We’ve seen the absolute best debunk this.
Another example is Bure potted 58 in 74 games and 59 in 82 games (and 13 in 11 games before these two seasons) in 1998-1999 and 1999-2000, scoring environments of 5.26 and 5.52. He was 28 and 29 years old.
If we isolate these seasons and then someone tells us that in 1992-1993 and 1993-1994, the scoring environments were 7.26 and 6.48 GPG, surely 21 and 22 year old Bure would score at a much higher rate considering he was younger and in prime goal scoring years with environments a full 1 and 2 goals lower.
Surely he should have had 70-80 goals when we go back and look?
No….he had 60 in 83 games and 60 in 76 games.
Hmm…
I’m not saying it doesn’t matter, but in the case of these all-time greats, era or even age sometimes doesn’t seem to matter.
Good summary.A brief preview at the start of the new season:
The big milestones we are all waiting for this season are the career goal #800 (just 20 goals away, should come somewhere around Christmas), goal #801 (ties Gordie Howe for #2 all-time) and goal #802 (passes Howe).
However, there are more milestones on tap: for example, right now Ovechkin and Howe are tied for #2 all-time in career GWG (121 each). The first game-winner Ovechkin scores this season will give him the sole possession of #2 all-time (#1 is Jagr with 135 GWG).
Gretzky split his career goals across several teams; Howe scored almost all of his goals playing for Detroit, but 15 of his goals were for Hartford (playing as a 50-year-old in late 1970s). So just 7 more goals will make Ovechkin #1 in the NHL history in goals scored for one franchise.
In terms of points, Ovechkin is #20 all-time at the moment; just 16 more points will make him #17 (moving past Gilmour, Oates, Trottier). Also achievable in the second half of the season is #15 all-time in points (Ovechkin has 1410 career points, the current #15, Mikita, has 1467, Selanne is #16 with 1457).
If anyone cares about Ovechkin's career assists, this season will likely see him climb the leaderboard from #82 at the moment to #68 all-time - all it takes is 20 assists, and Ovechkin will move past Forsberg, MSL, D. Sedin, Hull Jr and even Orr. The distance between #68 (Hull Jr) and #67 (Iginla) is 25 assists, so I will probably leave it there.
If the Caps PP clicks, by the end of the season Ovechkin can become the first player in the NHL history to score 300 career PPG. He is already #1 ever at 285 career PPG, so just another 15 PPG to go.
30 goals this season will make Ovechkin #1 all-time in terms of 30-goal seasons (he will be tied with Gartner at 17).
40 goals this season will move him into sole possession of #1 all-time in terms of 40-goals seasons (he is currently tied with Gretzky at 12).
And of course, the 10th 50-goal season will be the most ever.
Good summary.
Just a note that Sid the Kid is breathing behind his neck in points, and likely overtakes if healthy.
So it is probably "-1" in those points rankings.