Ovechkin milestone thread - 850 and Beyond!

[Roshi]

blah...blah...blah...

1. Ovechkin was 25. Both have literally the same birth date, but nice of you to move the goalposts.
2. Who cares? When Matthews breaks the 600 goal mark come back and prove us wrong.
3. Leafs fan will Leafs...

Im Caps fan and Ovie is the goat for me

I just saw your post about Matthews and was thinking out loud that he got some headstart because of the lockouts and that gives him a little bit of advantage. I dont know why we need to always be so fence, and try to downplay other players achievements.

Matthews is having crazy good peak, comparable to Ovie. Thats GOAT-level of business. Of course he will have to cash in the longevity aswell to get there, and thats the hard part. We will see how far he can get in the coming years. Mainly saying that its great to have generational talents in the league and its interesting to compare their path to side with the legends.

I think Crosby is great at hockey too. Huh!

But as others have posted, this topic should be for Ovies milestones, sorry for the off topic all.

 

[wetcoast]

Ahem, which adjusted goals statistic shows this? I can't find any single one that says Matthews' season this year is better than Ovie's 65-goal campaign. He's still pretty far behind, at least according to hockey-reference, and that's unlikely to change, since to my understanding their stats are prorated to 82 games already.

Matthews is not even beating Stamkos' 60-goal season, at least according to hockey-references era adjustments.

League-wide scoring really is up this year. Highest since 95-96. It's no coincidence that we have seen so many "best since 95-96" records (including Matthews' 51 in 50, previous 50 in 50 was Lemieux in that exact season) this year.

I used hockey reference which shows 300 goals for AM in his first 401 games adjusted.

the breakdown for each guy through 6 years with AM having 10 games left this season so his 65 could change slightly

AM 65,63,56,44,37,35 in 411 games (assuming he plays in the remaining 10 games this season)

300 goals total in 411 games

Ovi 72,59,55,52,48,35

321 goals total in 475 game

You are right league scoring is up this year and Stamkos with 68 adjusted goals might be hard to beat and 72 by Ovi remains the post cap season leader in that category.

 

[filinski77]

I used hockey reference which shows 300 goals for AM in his first 401 games adjusted.

the breakdown for each guy through 6 years with AM having 10 games left this season so his 65 could change slightly

AM 65,63,56,44,37,35 in 411 games (assuming he plays in the remaining 10 games this season)

300 goals total in 411 games

Ovi 72,59,55,52,48,35

321 goals total in 475 game

You are right league scoring is up this year and Stamkos with 68 adjusted goals might be hard to beat and 72 by Ovi remains the post cap season leader in that category.

Worth noting 2 things:
A) You have to use "adjusted GP" for your above figures. Since HR's adjusted goals assumes that shortened seasons (for non injury and suspension reasons) are projected to a normal full-length schedule

B) The last few seasons are good examples of why the adjusted stat is useful, but not entirely accurate. League scoring might be up overall 12% from 2008, but it appears that overall top-line elite player scoring is up even more than that (ie. the scoring distribution for top players is increased more than the increase overall). I ran a projection a few days ago showing that top-scoring is closer to 15-20% higher than in 2008 (compared to the 12%.

 

[BallardEra]

#46

 

[kugelbahn]

#46

Crosbesque backhand bankshot

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

#46

Lesson #1 in hockey, good things happen when you get the puck on net.

 

[Amazinmets73]

It would be amazing if he potted 50.

 

[User9992]

46 goals so far... 9 games & 2 periods left to play.

 

[M2Beezy]

WOOOHOOOO!!!!!!!

 

[TJHKY]

 

[TJHKY]

 

[Amazinmets73]

100 point season isn't out of the question. He'd have to go nuts though.

 

[andrjusha]

It was OV 131st first goal of the game, tying Brett Hull for second in all-time list, Jagr is first with 135

From nhl.com

 

[CokenoPepsi]

I'd like to see Ovechkin score 50 but he just missing those 2 or 3 goal games.

8 goals for Washington tonight and just one goal from Ovi...hmph

 

[canuckking1]

Caps peaking at the right time. Still prefer them to play Florida over the Rangers.

 

[TJHKY]

 

[G2P]

If he doesn’t break the record he has the Covid season(s) to blame. Shame.

 

[BallardEra]

I'd like to see Ovechkin score 50 but he just missing those 2 or 3 goal games.

8 goals for Washington tonight and just one goal from Ovi...hmph

Before tonight I had him down for 2 goals.

14 goals in his last 18 games played though and needs 4 goals over his last 9 games to hit 50.

Caps have 7 left on the road and 2 at home while Ovechkin has 22 goals on the road and 24 goals at home this season.

 

[Amazinmets73]

If he doesn’t break the record he has the Covid season(s) to blame. Shame.

If he stays healthy he's definitely breaking it. Injury or unforseen league shut-down due to pandemic is the only thing that can stop him.

 

[Amazinmets73]

He'll need to average 38 or 39 goals over the next 3 seasons. Let's say he only averages 33, which is unlikely and probably the worst we can project if he's playing full seasons. He'd need less than 20 goals to break record and he'd be going into his age 40 season. And to reiterate, that's the worst case scenario.

There's just no way it doesn't happen if he avoids injury.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

It would be nice if Ovechkin gets to 50 this year, but consider:

1) He scored 32 goals in 48 games in 2013, and easily would have reached 50 if not for the lockout
2) He scored 48 goals in 69 team games (he missed one) in 2020, and easily would have reached 50 if not for COVID

I'm not even going to talk about 2018, where he scored 49 goals in a year that featured something like 20-25% less offense than the era that Gretzky and Bossy played in. (A rough rule of thumb is 50 goals today is equivalent to 60+ in the late 1970's to early 1990's).

Statistical trivia, by its definition, is taken at face value. In that sense, the numbers are what they are, and Ovechkin is going to do something special if he scores four more goals this year. But, by any reasonable metric, Ovechkin is already way ahead of Gretzky and Bossy in terms of era-adjusted 50 goal seasons (Howe might challenge him, but I'm pretty sure Ovechkin would still be ahead).

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Lesson #1 in hockey, good things happen when you get the puck on net.

I was led to believe by some resident gurus that shots were bad. Lol.

Always nice to see Ovie score in different ways.

Even strength goal #487. Closing in on 500. Also now has 872 career even strength points which is tied with Adam Oates for 27th all time.

 

[wetcoast]

Worth noting 2 things:
A) You have to use "adjusted GP" for your above figures. Since HR's adjusted goals assumes that shortened seasons (for non injury and suspension reasons) are projected to a normal full-length schedule

B) The last few seasons are good examples of why the adjusted stat is useful, but not entirely accurate. League scoring might be up overall 12% from 2008, but it appears that overall top-line elite player scoring is up even more than that (ie. the scoring distribution for top players is increased more than the increase overall). I ran a projection a few days ago showing that top-scoring is closer to 15-20% higher than in 2008 (compared to the 12%.

For the first point it does the same with the lockout shortened 12-13 and 94-95 seasons as well and to the second point accuracy isn't the issue as this isn't an exact science but it's a pretty decent ballpark to compare player A offensively from one season to player B in another season.

Honestly I haven't looked but 3 0n 3 OT might have something to do with both increases mentioned above.

The point that I do think is important is that looked at adjusted stats, as well as other angles sheds more light than simply looking at one angle or just counting stats.

 

[wetcoast]

It was OV 131st first goal of the game, tying Brett Hull for second in all-time list, Jagr is first with 135

From nhl.com
View attachment 530157

I wonder how many people could have guess all 5 players on this list?

I would have guess 2 off the top of my head and maybe with a quick glance might have guess one of the other 3.

 

[fasterthanlight]

it's super hard to compare between eras, but in my book he's already the greatest goal-scorer of all time.