Post-Game Talk: Out played Jets lose in ot

[Gm0ney]

Matt Hendricks might have been more valuable than all the hf experts thought.

Look at the great job he's doing for the Wild. Got their GM fired, sliding out of a playoff spot. Magic!

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Erasing unpleasant memories. Monkeying around with what makes you = you. Who knows what might happen?

I like to think of myself as an empathetic and compassionate person. Erase my memories of pain and maybe I become a real prick.
there, the door is open.

Nope, not going through that door. Fortunately, that company only exists in the brilliantly twisted imagination of Charlie Kaufman.

 

[Ducky10]

They do if you are the team with the "relentless, high pressure forecheck".

If if the Jets are forechecking like they can, there are still times they are going to get hemmed by a persistent, well organized forecheck. It's just the ebbs and flows of the game.

 

[Jets 31]

I've said this a couple of times this season already but get Scheif and Weezler off the PK !!We don't need them doing this , we have lots of forwards that can do the job , Tanev , Copp , Lowry , Little , Applebees , even Roslovic . It would cut Scheif and Weezler's ice times down and they wouldn't have to stand and block shots .

 

[Gm0ney]

Don't worry about Wheeler...he's only RW1 for another 5 years after this one at $8.25M/season...

 

[wpgallday1960]

let's be fair here, too. Every team other than TB has had peaks and valleys this year. I won't argue that the Jets are playing poorly right now but they can get it together at playoff time when it really matters. TB can have the President's Cup, too me that is a kiss of death.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If if the Jets are forechecking like they can, there are still times they are going to get hemmed by a persistent, well organized forecheck. It's just the ebbs and flows of the game.

Yes, no doubt. And just as long at any one time. But less often.

 

[Jets 31]

That's 2 games in row where we aren't hitting anyone either , we pounded teams all the time last season . We need Buff back at 100% and need our forwards to start banging guys . Tanev is the only guy bringing it every game .

 

[Gm0ney]

Here's this year's Jets:

vs. Last year's Jets (as of Feb 27 - so pre-Stastny)

 

[White Out 902]

What are the odds St Louis finished higher than us?

 

[King Woodballs]

let's be fair here, too. Every team other than TB has had peaks and valleys this year. I won't argue that the Jets are playing poorly right now but they can get it together at playoff time when it really matters. TB can have the President's Cup, too me that is a kiss of death.

Come on.... get out of here with your logic!
You know the jets are the worst team ever to play in the nhl in there 100 years of existence!

 

[HannuJ]

What are the odds St Louis finished higher than us?

almost nil. why do you ask?

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Here's this year's Jets:
View attachment 187991

vs. Last year's Jets (as of Feb 27 - so pre-Stastny)

This is a great illustration as to why I have been saying we shouldn't be buyers at the deadline this year.

I am just shocked at how it directly matches the eye test.

Thanks for posting this

 

[BoneDocUK]

Here's this year's Jets:
View attachment 187991

vs. Last year's Jets (as of Feb 27 - so pre-Stastny)

Wow. Thanks for that. Also, ouch.

IIRC last year there was also a sense that Stats was brought in to take a team that could already challenge for the Cup right over the top. I seem to recall a few players noting that they felt confident in the group well before he arrived. This year they (or we) seem to be looking for a player who can right the ship and help steer the team into a strong playoff run -- different ask for a different set of circumstances.

 

[Heldig]

So, watching the game last night who on Ottawa stood out to you?

Stone, Duchene, Dzingel and Tkachuk were very good. On D, I noticed Chabot and Harpur. Anyone else stand out?

 

[Turin]

This is a great illustration as to why I have been saying we shouldn't be buyers at the deadline this year.

I am just shocked at how it directly matches the eye test.

Thanks for posting this

I don’t believe PoMo is an elite coach. But the Jets should still but within reason, they have too much takent in a wide open league to not go for it,

 

[AlphaLackey]

What are the odds St Louis finished higher than us?

Per MoneyPuck, which uses a prediction model based not just on points but on fancy stats -- so this model will echo the more realistic "process-based" evaluation of the teams, not just the standings and goal differential.

From here, we can calculate the sum of conditional probabilities of St. Louis finishing ahead of our position. For instance, in the 15.4% of the time Winnipeg finishes 3rd in the Central, St. Louis will have a (25.1% +32.5% = ) 57.6% chance of finishing ahead of them. This will contribute a total of 15.4% * 57.6% = 8.87% to the total probability of St. Louis finishing ahead of us.

Here are the sum of all these products.

So, based on this, there's a 22.03% chance that St. Louis finishes ahead of us, or odds of about 7 to 2 against, or 3.5 to 1 against.. or "+350" as the cool kids say

 

[White Out 902]

almost nil. why do you ask?

Boy. This post aged terribly.

Unless you think nil means 3.5 to 1.

 

[Mud Turtle]

This is a great illustration as to why I have been saying we shouldn't be buyers at the deadline this year.

I am just shocked at how it directly matches the eye test.

Thanks for posting this

Crazy how it matches the eye test. I remember thinking how in the first 10 games we could have easily been 2-8.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Boy. This post aged terribly.

Unless you think nil means 3.5 to 1.

In light of all the harsh words you and I have shared, it warms my heart that at least you still trust my math

To give us some measure of how the Jets have been over-performing relative to their standings, I repeated the calculations based on the SportsClubStats model, which just uses standings and goal differential.

This figure is much lower (4.32%, or about 22 to 1 against) and the difference between the two is telling.

 

[AlphaLackey]

This is a great illustration as to why I have been saying we shouldn't be buyers at the deadline this year.

I am just shocked at how it directly matches the eye test.

Thanks for posting this

The reason why I think these figures argue for us being buyers at the deadline, is that this clearly shows that our potential far exceeds our performance and that doing something big to "shake things up" would absolutely be far likelier to make things better than to make things worse. For the opposite reason you might not want to make a big move when the team is playing at full capacity, I think this just shows why it's all the more important that we grab Stone and maybe Duchesne.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

The west is wide open. All teams have struggles. Jets have been bad. Yet still 1st. Shows u that really.. If they get their shit together... They likely walk to the finals. .

Nobody else looks that good in the West

 

[ocdaddy]

Maurice is a good color commentator and will have a job at tsn after he is done coaching the Jets.

If they lose in the 1st round I don't think he gets fired. Would be best for the team to let him go at that point but I just can't see it happen.

 

[BigZ65]

The west is wide open. All teams have struggles. Jets have been bad. Yet still 1st. Shows u that really.. If they get their **** together... They likely walk to the finals. .

You’ve watched NHL playoffs your whole life. You know that’s not true.

 

[Board Bard]

Funny, I thought that used to be our MO. Seemed to do quite a bit of that last year.

Last year: a pack of wolves.
This year: a sofa of poodles.