Blue Jays Discussion: Our Playoff Adventure WILL Return To Toronto (Playoff avatars: posts 1-4)

[Trouba95*]

Gotta get up Kershaw's pitch count

 

[Canada4Gold]

Mets warming deGrom in game 4, leaving Syndergaard for game 5.

Sound familier? I mean it's not 7-1, but this isn't a must win for the Mets either.

 

[ChiTownLeafer]

Cubs vs Jays WS would be like USA vs Canada. Who in their right mind would pull for the Jays in the US?

People like me - jays fans living in Chicago! I hope we see a jays vs cubs matchup. Would be unreal!

 

[Kurtz]

I think most people who are familiar with the process would agree that the arbitrators still rely a lot on traditional "counting" or "baseball card" stats like AVG, RBI, SB's, Wins, Saves as well as playing time in general (the longer you are in the league and the more games you played is pretty important)....and I think most would also agree that those are far from the best way to evaluate players nowadays...so there is still some dichotomy there in terms of how much a players is awarded and how much he is actually worth. So, Revere's camp arguing about his AVG and hits and SB's will probably weigh heavier in the arbitrator's minds then if the Blue Jays bring up his WAR or wRC+ or other advanced stats....thus leading him to be awarded a higher salary than what he really should get.

For what its worth, MLB Trade Rumours projects each player's arbitration salary and they are usually pretty accurate. For the Blue Jays players they come up with:

Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM
Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM
Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM
Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM
Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM
Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM
Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM
Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K
Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K

For more...here is how their model works, which is pretty interesting and gives a pretty quick rundown of how the arbitration process in general works.

Thanks, that's a good article. So looks like the arbitrators are idiots theory is not terribly far-fetched.

 

[PuckMagi]

I was listening to 590 in the car today and one guy was going on and on about how we should have saved Price for game 5.

The problem was that Price had already warmed up during game 3... and he warmed up in game 4... so at that point, you pretty much gotta use him in game 4 IMO. The guy is a starter and it's probably not a good idea to keep warming him up and then not use him. So might as well use him in game 4 rather than trying to save him for game 5 when he's all screwed up from warming up twice without getting in any real work.

 

[Stats01]

an average of 2.35 million people watched game 1 on Thursday, 4.15 million in game 3. That. is. crazy!

Ratings are incredible. Can't even imagine how many are going to be watching tomorrow. I don't care how bad the dollar is doing right now, Rogers must be sitting back and thinking "CHING CHING!"

 

[Trouba95*]

Ya, Rogers is obligated to open up the purse strings this off-season.

 

[KingTY]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

 

[Loosie]

That was near disaster for the Dodgers.

 

[Trouba95*]

Thought that was gone off of Murphy's bat.

 

[Eyedea]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

Add back in the Ks and BBs, and it bumps up Estrada’s “tru†ERA slightly to 3.02, right in the same ballpark as his actual (3.13) and calculated component ERAs (2.90). FIP really blows it on Estrada. His 4.40 FIP gives him absolutely no credit for his minuscule liner rate and all of those “donut-hole†fly balls. In his particular case, ERA much more actually portrays Estrada’s true talent.

That's rather interesting.

 

[Loosie]

Dodgers/Mets going to a Game 5.

 

[calcal798]

Cardinal fans.

+ Pittsburg + SF?

 

[theaub]

Hell even beIN Sports Arabia dropped a minute long Donaldson HR montage in their ad for the game tomorrow

Everyone's pumped

 

[theaub]

That's rather interesting.

Is it? I think anyone who has watched Estrada this year can pretty easily say that he hasn't been lucky. I can think of a mere handful of games where he's given up some hard hit contact and escaped, and if he truly pitched to his FIP/ERA split he would be lucky virtually every start.

I'd expect his strand rate to regress, but as noted in the article, this is his worst K/BB rate season and even though he'll be 33, he doesn't have a ton of miles on his arm. I'd still be more than willing to drop the 3/30 deal on him that was being talked about awhile ago, but (hopefully) a couple more good playoff starts and he'll be in the QO range.

 

[Eyedea]

Is it? I think anyone who has watched Estrada this year can pretty easily say that he hasn't been lucky. I can think of a mere handful of games where he's given up some hard hit contact and escaped, and if he truly pitched to his FIP/ERA split he would be lucky virtually every start.

I'd expect his strand rate to regress, but as noted in the article, this is his worst K/BB rate season and even though he'll be 33, he doesn't have a ton of miles on his arm. I'd still be more than willing to drop the 3/30 deal on him that was being talked about awhile ago, but (hopefully) a couple more good playoff starts and he'll be in the QO range.

That's exactly why I said it was interesting. I've had enough people say that everything should stabilize to league average levels and he should finish with an ERA over 4.

 

[Mitchy]

I have to admit, I've grown fond of the whistle.

 

[theaub]

ugh game five

Already useless the next 9 hours are so are going to suck

 

[Revolt]

Game Day! So excited and nervous all at once.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Is it? I think anyone who has watched Estrada this year can pretty easily say that he hasn't been lucky. I can think of a mere handful of games where he's given up some hard hit contact and escaped, and if he truly pitched to his FIP/ERA split he would be lucky virtually every start.

I'd expect his strand rate to regress, but as noted in the article, this is his worst K/BB rate season and even though he'll be 33, he doesn't have a ton of miles on his arm. I'd still be more than willing to drop the 3/30 deal on him that was being talked about awhile ago, but (hopefully) a couple more good playoff starts and he'll be in the QO range.

I think you have to offer him the QO. And if he accepts it, you accept very little risk in return on a pitcher once again pitching for a contract on a one year deal.

Marco is a pretty clear example of weak contact generation, and as you stated, a career low k rate. Kinda like Alfredo Simon from last year, or Doug Fister from last year. His immediate effectiveness should not be questioned; how long (in terms of seasons) can it be sustained is what needs to be weighed by management.

 

[Woodman19]

So not going to class today lol

 

[Lunatik]

I cannot wait for the game today. Working a night shift, need to nap, wake up for the game and then nap again before work. But if the boys win it, it will so be worth it!

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

Pumped that Gibby gave the ball to Stroman

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Somebody was talking about how the Blue Jays were unfamiliar with Cole Hamels yesterday....

Martin 5/18 (1 HR, 1 walk)
Tulowitzki 5/15 (2 HR, 1 Triple, 1 walk)
Edwin 5/14 (1 HR, 2 walks)
Bautista 3/9 (1 double, 2 walks)

 

[Loosie]

Dome closed....BOOOOO!

Not surprised though.