Tampa has a 78% chance of advancing to the second round according to the Athletic.
Hockey is a pretty variable/often fluky game (much more so than football and basketball, though not as much as baseball). A 7-game series is small enough that Bob stealing a few games, a few weird bounces, etc., could make the difference. It’s not a 999-game series; it’s only a 7-game series. Tampa was better than Washington last year.
Further, we’re not Ottawa. We’re not Detroit. We’d still be a playoff team with Artemi Panarin, Seth Jones, Sergei Bobrovsky, Matt Duchene, Cam Atkinson...