For perspective, so everyone can have a stronger sense of the OA market saturation, here is a list of each OHL Team’s 3rd best OA (based on how I would rank them). I will try to lean towards the forwards for tiebreakers.
Barrie - Tai York LW 17-32-49 (Likely will upgrade)
Brampton - EMPTY SPOT
Brantford - Ben Bujold C 14-26-40 (May upgrade)
Erie - Sam Alfano RW 27-33-60
Flint - Evan Konyen RW 23-25-48 (Offseason trade with Sudbury)
Guelph - Max Namesnikov LW 24-26-50
Kingston - Gage Hayes 11-7-18 (Likely will upgrade)
Kitchener - Adrian Misaljevic LW 23-35-58
London - Landon Sim LW 10-19-29 (London will likely upgrade but they may upgrade 2 spots including goaltending. Tough to say what they will do specifically)
Niagara - Gavin Bryant C 21-33-54 (Niagara actually has four key OA’s)
North Bay - NB will be moving Wakely. The Leblanc twins are a package deal. VanSteensel is their captain I believe. I doubt they find a way to move the Leblanc’s to open an OA spot or two. No way they release them in a rebuilding year.
Oshawa - Luke Torrance LW 21-20-41 (Waiting on Roobroeck to be returned. If returned, it is likely they move one of Torrance or D-Amato to make room)
Owen Sound - Likely to move Smith to open a spot but they are rebuilding. I am not sure they will pay a high price for an OA. Their other two OAs are just “meh.” I don’t see them trading a 2nd and 3rd for an OA upgrade in a rebuild year. They will likely wait on the waiver wire and pick up whatever s there for free.
Peterborough - Ryder McIntyre RW 14-17-31 (Rebuilding. Same as Owen Sound. Their OA’s are character guys that they like)
Saginaw - PJ Forgione D 6’2” 215. One of five returning D-Men. They want to contend and will likely keep the big man. The other two are not going anywhere.
Sarnia - Tyson Ducette LW 23-23-46
Sault - Owen Allard C 18-26-44
Sudbury - Kocha Delic 30-34-64 (If they sell off, they will move all three of their guys but would likely just pluck guys off waivers to fill their spots or take back the other teams OAs that are being upgraded on)
Windsor - Noah Morneau C 13-21-34 (Will likely upgrade)
Will Gerrior LW 26-19-45
For perspective, this is what Ottawa is working against when trying to move OA’s and get something decent in return. If they were to try and move Gerrior, they would need to try to attract a contender because the contender would pay real assets to upgrade in a similar way Ottawa did last year acquiring Maillet, Kressler, and Mayer. So, from my perspective, Ottawa “should” want at least a 2nd and 3rd round pick to make it worth while to move Gerrior now. Otherwise, wait until the deadline, see how th market changes, see if Gerrior can pop off between now and then which could change his value.
I see Barrie, Brampton, Brantford, Kingston, and Windsor as the most likely to upgrade when the right player comes available. I see London upgrading as well but they need to figure out the goaltending before they upgrade their forward group. The rest will either stay status quo, or will pluck a value player off waivers. Of the first group I mentioned, they are more likley to go after players like Wakely, Delic, McCoy, DeAngelis, and Smith as elite upgrades.
Not a lot of teams looking to upgrade. The rest it would be more of a sideways move. Gerrior is an Ottawa boy. I cannot see them move him. He is more valuable to the 67’s than he is in this saturated market.
MacKenzie may have value. But, Sztuska is also available and potentially Parsons is available out of Kitchener as OA Goalies. There will be some potential road blocks there. All three of those guys are very capable.
To me, Stonehouse is the wildcard. That kid has something not many have and that is the ability to grate on every last nerve of the opposition. I could see a Contending team want to add that element. Unless there is something in this market I am not seeing, he is the one that is positioned to be the most valuable, especially if multiple contending teams want to add that element.
EDIT: In this market, if Ottawa decided to keep MacK, Stonehouse, and Mayich, and they simply were either trading or releasing Gerrior, I can’t see them get more than a 3rd and 5th for him at the absolute highest value. I think if the market conditions are right, Stonehouse could fetch a 2nd and 3rd. Same with Mayich. MacK? Really tough to say on that one. Goalies are tougher to judge. Lalonde went for a 3rd and 7th. You have to think he would go for more than Lalonde. 3rd and 5th? 2nd and 7th? Somewhere around there.