Ottawa 67's 2023-24 Season Thread (Part 2)

[beastintheeast]

This team’s inability to hold leads is now becoming a significant issue….

Part of the challenge for this team is a lack of an effective defensive shutdown line and defence pairing.

We do not have a line that can be counted on to shut down the opposition. Considering that our PK is second worst in the conference, Niagara is even better.

The good thing we have always had is that our first line could go out and play against the top lines int he league. Pinelli Kressler and Mayer are a liability as defensive players. Also by the end of the period our top defence is probably tired and not as effective.

One of the things tht we could always depend on was the fitmess of these teams. With the Flu and other things we just do not hve it and need to hold on at the end and pray for our goalies to hold teh fort.

 

[OMG67]

Part of the challenge for this team is a lack of an effective defensive shutdown line and defence pairing.

We do not have a line that can be counted on to shut down the opposition. Considering that our PK is second worst in the conference, Niagara is even better.

The good thing we have always had is that our first line could go out and play against the top lines int he league. Pinelli Kressler and Mayer are a liability as defensive players. Also by the end of the period our top defence is probably tired and not as effective.

One of the things tht we could always depend on was the fitmess of these teams. With the Flu and other things we just do not hve it and need to hold on at the end and pray for our goalies to hold teh fort.

Good point. I can get behind that. I think we do have some solid defensive players but they don’t normally constitute last minute game players. For example, guys like Barlas, Gerrior and Dever are solid examples of good defensive players. Gerrior is likely the only one of those three that are last minute players.

The issue is the defence. One of the positions a few of us were clamouring for was exactly what you are referring to as being needed. We needed that 3rd pairing defensive D-Man. Someone more consistent. As of now, we have Mayich and Marrelli as likely the best defensive pairing.

BUT, the best last minute player we have is injured (MacK).

Most good teams have top players that are ALSO the go to guys defensively in the last minute of a game. We don’t have those guys. Pinelli is not close to being that guy. Being a -13 on this team is obscene. Kressler doesn’t seem to be that guy either. I was hoping for more from Maillet in that role but he isn’t that guy. Gardiner seems to be the best of the three centres in that regard but he is far from elite Defensively.

Since we don’t have those prototypical guys, we need to find a way to work with the ones we have. Compared to last season, we aren’t seeing solid +/- type players in general. That is what really stands up to validate what you are saying for sure.

The reality is the entire league is lame this season for the most part. The deficiencies aren’t as much of a highlight as would be most years. Ottawa can get away with that a little more than they would normally.

The key for the team going forward is to get healthy, find a groove and ride the wave. The positive is they have three more weeks of tough games and then the remainder of the season should be more of a confidence booster. They will get tested in a very tight number of games and will be able to identify their weaknesses and use the last 4-6 weeks to work on those deficiencies and carry an improved roster into the playoffs.

It is funny how much better the team is with Barlas patrolling the wing. We saw the same when Dever came back. Having both of those guys playing with Gardiner may be a positive if we want a more defensive line? I’m not sure that is what I would do for a full game but maybe trying to hold a lead?

 

[beastintheeast]

One of the things that surprised me about the Flint Game was that Whitehead only had 2 face-offs. That tells me that he really did not get a lot of ice time.

The simple fact is that we do not have a PK at all

A good PK has a defence that can control the play in front of the net as well as handle the corners by controlling the puck. It has a center that can win the face-offs or at least control where the puck goes. As well as a winger who can look after their part of the box and is willing to block shots.

I would love to see Barlas and Whitehead or Stonehouse Gardner be given a shot at filling this. On a defence front you can not have the top 2 playing PP and then expect them to PK. Mayer is a train wreck as a defenceman. Sirman does not have the size, but maybe if they put him with Mayich, it would work
To my thinking the less ice time Pinelli and Kresslersees other than PP the better this team will be

 

[OMG67]

One of the things that surprised me about the Flint Game was that Whitehead only had 2 face-offs. That tells me that he really did not get a lot of ice time.

The simple fact is that we do not have a PK at all

A good PK has a defence that can control the play in front of the net as well as handle the corners by controlling the puck. It has a center that can win the face-offs or at least control where the puck goes. As well as a winger who can look after their part of the box and is willing to block shots.

I would love to see Barlas and Whitehead or Stonehouse Gardner be given a shot at filling this. On a defence front you can not have the top 2 playing PP and then expect them to PK. Mayer is a train wreck as a defenceman. Sirman does not have the size, but maybe if they put him with Mayich, it would work
To my thinking the less ice time Pinelli and Kresslersees other than PP the better this team will be

I think you are oversimplifying this a bit.

Kressler and Pinelli combined for a Short Handed goal tonight so they have that going for them.

The goal needs to be ~100% when adding PP and PK percentages. The 67’s are at 98.9 right now which isn’t great but it isn’t crippling.

The main goal needs to be reducing PP against. Ottawa has given up the 3rd least number of PP against, yet they are 11th in PPG against. They are only 3 goals against away from 5th so it is not like there is a lot of separation there.

Oddly enough, Ottawa also is 3rd in the least amount of PP opportunities And are 11th in total PPG’s. That is not a bad ratio considering their lack of opportunities. I think they will actually end up a little better at the end of the season.

Ottawa is a -2 on Special Teams. They have 36 goals on the PP and 7 Short Handed for a total of 43. They have given up 37 PP Goals and had 8 SH Goals against for a total of 45.

This is an area that is in need of improvement but it is not an area that is a glaring weakness and cause for concern.They are around mid-league right now. They need to settle into the 5-7 range if they want to reach their goal of winning the division. But, the main goal is to work harder and earn more PP opportunities and take less lazy penalties. Organically, those numbers would improve Immensely if they were to do both of those things. I expect that to happen as we get healthier and deeper into the season.

 

[beastintheeast]

I think you are oversimplifying this a bit.

Kressler and Pinelli combined for a Short Handed goal tonight so they have that going for them.

The goal needs to be ~100% when adding PP and PK percentages. The 67’s are at 98.9 right now which isn’t great but it isn’t crippling.

The main goal needs to be reducing PP against. Ottawa has given up the 3rd least number of PP against, yet they are 11th in PPG against. They are only 3 goals against away from 5th so it is not like there is a lot of separation there.

Oddly enough, Ottawa also is 3rd in the least amount of PP opportunities And are 11th in total PPG’s. That is not a bad ratio considering their lack of opportunities. I think they will actually end up a little better at the end of the season.

Ottawa is a -2 on Special Teams. They have 36 goals on the PP and 7 Short Handed for a total of 43. They have given up 37 PP Goals and had 8 SH Goals against for a total of 45.

This is an area that is in need of improvement but it is not an area that is a glaring weakness and cause for concern.They are around mid-league right now. They need to settle into the 5-7 range if they want to reach their goal of winning the division. But, the main goal is to work harder and earn more PP opportunities and take less lazy penalties. Organically, those numbers would improve Immensely if they were to do both of those things. I expect that to happen as we get healthier and deeper into the season.

What I am going with is the PK% which Ottawa is 5th last.

I have only the OHL stats, and I do not have access to anything else.

 

[OMG67]

What I am going with is the PK% which Ottawa is 5th last.

I have only the OHL stats, and I do not have access to anything else.

You have access to all of those same stats. When you go to TEAM stats, you can get all of the info.

Sometimes percentages can be misleading. Oshawa, for example, is 4th in the PK% and 10th in PP% for a total of 103.2%. They are a +6. Missy is 14th in PP% and 7th in PK% For a total of 99.9%. There is a 3% total difference between those two teams. But, because Missy is undisciplined and take a lot of penalties, they are a -15 goal differential on special teams. They have given up 69 more PP against than PP for. That is a wide gap. That is about 1.5 extra penalties per game they need to kill. Oshawa has had 12 more PP for than they have given PP against. Sometime nuance in the numbers matters which is why I try to go a little deeper. I don’t use advanced stat metrics but I do still find that these sorts fo stats can explain a lot And is a reason you should dig a little deeper.

Ottawa has only had 3 extra powerplays than they have given up. You have to think with the additions, this will start to become more imbalanced as the season wears on.

Brantford has had 23 extra PP’s. So, even though they are a -2.3% on special teams, the added PP’s helps then remain even on special teams. If Brantford doesn’t continue getting significantly more PP’s than the opposition, they may struggle a bit the rest of the way.

North Bay -6
Sudbury -6
Brantford - Even
Oshawa +6 (103.2%)
Missy -15 (99.9%)
Ottawa -2 (98.9%)

Anyway, the point is, go a bit deeper into the stats. It will tell a different tale sometimes. We can key in on the PK but the reality is you need to balance the scoring with the defence. When you do, you get a full picture of the special teams Which I find more helpful.

 

[Savard18]

One of the things that surprised me about the Flint Game was that Whitehead only had 2 face-offs. That tells me that he really did not get a lot of ice time.

The simple fact is that we do not have a PK at all

A good PK has a defence that can control the play in front of the net as well as handle the corners by controlling the puck. It has a center that can win the face-offs or at least control where the puck goes. As well as a winger who can look after their part of the box and is willing to block shots.

I would love to see Barlas and Whitehead or Stonehouse Gardner be given a shot at filling this. On a defence front you can not have the top 2 playing PP and then expect them to PK. Mayer is a train wreck as a defenceman. Sirman does not have the size, but maybe if they put him with Mayich, it would work
To my thinking the less ice time Pinelli and Kresslersees other than PP the better this team will be

Braeden Kressler has been taking big faceoffs, killing penalties and facing the opposition’s top line frequently since he was 16. He’s 2nd on your team in FO% among guys who are regulars at the dot. I highly doubt you have many forwards more defensively responsible than him unless he’s getting a different direction from the coaches.

 

[OMG67]

Braeden Kressler has been taking big faceoffs, killing penalties and facing the opposition’s top line frequently since he was 16. He’s 2nd on your team in FO% among guys who are regulars at the dot. I highly doubt you have many forwards more defensively responsible than him unless he’s getting a different direction from the coaches.

I would not say he is an elite 5 on 5 player. I think he is offence first and has a tendency to turn over the puck a bit in the offensive zone because he is the type of player that holds the puck and maybe forces the play a little too much. You need players with him that are prepared to move around the ice a lot to accommodate his roaming around with the puck.

From what I have seen so far, he has been much more impactful as a Powerplay guy than a 5 on 5 guy. If we talk about defensive responsibility, you need to be a productive 5 on 5 player. I have not seen that so far.

 

[mianjo]

According to the scorers sheet only 16 skaters today

OTTAWA LINEUP​
Pos​	No.​	Name
G​	1​	Michelone, Ian
G​	32​	Nelson, Jaeden
​	2​	Smyth, Derek
​	5​	Horner, Bradley
A​	6​	Sirman, Thomas
​	8​	Marrelli, Frankie
​	10​	Whitehead, Nic
​	11​	Mews, Henry
​	12​	Kressler, Braeden
​	16​	Yanni, Chase
​	18​	Dever, Jack
​	19​	Mayer, Samuel
C​	20​	Pinelli, Luca
A​	22​	Mayich, Matthew
A​	23​	Gerrior, Will
​	24​	Körbler, Kimi
​	27​	Maillet, Jacob
​	28​	Kelly, Caden
​	​
​	​

 

[mianjo]

67's down 1-0 after 2:34 of first

1-1

GOAL
#20 Luca Pinelli (33) scores. 1st 3:16

1-2

GOAL
#23 Will Gerrior (18) scores. Assists: #8 Frankie Marrelli, #27 Jacob Maillet 11:36

 

[OMG67]

Barlas, Foster, Gardiner and Stonehouse out. Looks like it will be an interesting 3rd period to see what kind of juice will be left in the tank.

 

[mianjo]

Marelli went down injured barely made it back to the bench

67's lead 2-1 after 1

SHOTS ON GOAL
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]Teams[/TH]
[TH]1st[/TH]
[TH]Total[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH]OTT[/TH]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH]SAG[/TH]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

67's with both of the pens called in 1st

 

[mianjo]

1-3

GOAL
#20 Luca Pinelli (34) scores. Assists: #12 Braeden Kressler 2nd 7:03

2-3 after 2

SHOTS ON GOAL

Teams	1st	2nd	Total
OTT	11	13	24
SAG	10	23	33

 

[OMG67]

Korbler has had a really good weekend from a defensive perspective. He’s been all over the ice and is really sticking to the opposition. I’m still not sold on his offensive capabilities but I like what I see from him right now. he is way more engaged than he’s been through the first half or so.

 

[mianjo]

2-4

GOAL
#19 Samuel Mayer (17) scores. Assists: #20 Luca Pinelli, #12 Braeden KresslerPOWER PLAY
3rd 1:09

4th pen of the game for Marelli

3-4 with 5:30 to go

4-4 with 4 to go

Overtime 3rd of the weekend

 

[OMG67]

Barlas, Foster, Gardiner and Stonehouse out. Looks like it will be an interesting 3rd period to see what kind of juice will be left in the tank.

Not enough juice int he tank with so many guys out and others still sick. The back half of that period they were just trying to hang on. Full credit to them coming out of this game with a Point. I think this is a bit of a character building weekend. For them to come out of it with 4 points with a short roster and the flu gutting the roster on a 3 in 3 has got to be considered a win.

NOTE: Maillet needs to get it together and find his groove. Since the deadline, he has 1 goal and 2 assists and he’s a -6. He needs to find a way to be more productive without any question. Lawrence has 2 goals and 3 assists and is a +3. He was far more productive for Ottawa than Maillet has been.

 

[mianjo]

67's lose 5-4 in OT

SHOTS ON GOAL

Teams	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	Total
OTT	11	13	6	0	30
SAG	10	23	8	3	44

 

[NordiquesForeva]

Yeah that goal shouldn’t have counted. Complete bullshit.

 

[sirius67fan]

Not enough juice int he tank with so many guys out and others still sick. The back half of that period they were just trying to hang on. Full credit to them coming out of this game with a Point. I think this is a bit of a character building weekend. For them to come out of it with 4 points with a short roster and the flu gutting the roster on a 3 in 3 has got to be considered a win.

NOTE: Maillet needs to get it together and find his groove. Since the deadline, he has 1 goal and 2 assists and he’s a -6. He needs to find a way to be more productive without any question. Lawrence has 2 goals and 3 assists and is a +3. He was far more productive for Ottawa than Maillet has been.

Not able to see the games for Feb/March so take my comments with a grain of salt but with this roster getting 4/6...WOW.

 

[OMG67]

Yeah that goal shouldn’t have counted. Complete bullshit.

What happened? I couldn’t tell. I know it went off Michelone’s shoulder and popped up in the air. Did one of the Saginaw players whack it? I know the guy in front missed the puck when he swatted at it above the crossbar. It didn’t look like anyone banged into Michelone but I didn’t get the greatest view on the replays.

EDIT:
I went back to look at the play. I never noticed it at first but Michelone took a high stick to the mask when the player swatted at the rebound. Slapped him pretty good. That said, it doesn't look like it was a distraction at all. Comes across as more of an excuse? I don’t know how much that did or did not affect him.

 

[beastintheeast]

Korbler has had a really good weekend from a defensive perspective. He’s been all over the ice and is really sticking to the opposition. I’m still not sold on his offensive capabilities but I like what I see from him right now. he is way more engaged than he’s been through the first half or so.

It may be that with everyone else working on being offensive and he not being a sniper, Cameron and his agent have told him that there is a place for defensive specialists that can keep the other team best off the scoreboard. As a rookie, it is sometimes hard to find your place, BUT if he is going to be a defensive player, then I like it. Hopefully, we see a healthy Barlas and Korbler play together. If they can gel they may be what we need in the closing minutes.

We have had a lot of players go through the system that were shut down players and left the scoring to others.

What happened? I couldn’t tell. I know it went off Michelone’s shoulder and popped up in the air. Did one of the Saginaw players whack it? I know the guy in front missed the puck when he swatted at it above the crossbar. It didn’t look like anyone banged into Michelone but I didn’t get the greatest view on the replays.

EDIT:
I went back to look at the play. I never noticed it at first but Michelone took a high stick to the mask when the player swatted at the rebound. Slapped him pretty good. That said, it doesn't look like it was a distraction at all. Comes across as more of an excuse? I don’t know how much that did or did not affect him.

I am sure that if it was not a goal then Cameron would have been all over the refs.

Also with the number of sick players 4 out of 6 is not a bad weekend

 

[beastintheeast]

I'm just looking at the condors, and I think we can write off Stonehouse for next year. They badly need an RW who can play.

Consider Sam Gagne is the top RW and he has only played 3 games.

 

[OMG67]

I'm just looking at the condors, and I think we can write off Stonehouse for next year. They badly need an RW who can play.

Consider Sam Gagne is the top RW and he has only played 3 games.

We cannot say for certain what the plans are for Stonehouse. However, I think it is somewhat short sighted to look at the existing roster for the Condors and draw a straight line. Those rosters change dramatically year over year.

The Oilers have 46/50 contracts used. They have nine forward UFA’s on the 50 man roster. They have four RFA forwards on the 50 man roster. They will be doing a lot of heavy lifting across the whole organization.

There are far too many variables within the Oilers system to make a suggestion that since the Condors only have 1 natural RW ont he current roster that obviously Stonehouse will play ECHL.

First, hockey organizations don’t make development decisions based on stocking their ECHL team. They will first make a decision on where they feel Stonehouse would be best suited to develop. It is possible they will feel the ECHL is the right spot. But, it could also be the OHL. We don’t know that. That single decision is going to be the overwhelming primary factor of where Stonehouse plays.

A secondary factor will be his performance this year. To date, it looks like he’s been struggling with an injury. He seems to be nursing something. He isn’t quite the same player but you can see he wants to be the same player but something is holding him back. I think it may be some form of nagging injury but that is speculation on my part.

They quite simply will not assign Stonehouse to the ECHL because they are short on wingers Knowing that is not the best place for his development. They need to know that is the best place for his development and it is a bonus that he happens to fit in nicely on the roster because of gaps.

The other wrinkle in this is he plays RW but he is a left hand shot. The Oilers may want him to develop on his natural wing. The 67’s have been heavy on the left side the last few seasons. Stonehouse seems fine on the right side. Foster, Pinelli, Beck, and Gerrior are all LW. Barlas too. Stonehouse may very well have shifted to the right side out of necessity. We’ve seen Gerrior on the right side quite a bit too because of the loaded left side.

I think there are far too many variables in play with respect to Stonehouse. If he were on a 40 goal pace and a dominant force the way he was last year, I would be inclined to agree. But, his year has been very disappointing overall. Based on that, I tend to lean towards him returning for another year in hopes of finding his groove. Speculation on my part. Regardless, if he returns, it is a bonus. If he doesn’t then so be it. We lose a trade chip but we still have three solid OA’s plus Sirman and Smyth so it is not like it would affect us heavily on ice If he weren’t to return.

 

[OMG67]

We have three home games coming up now. We have the Petes who are really weak right now, Kitchener who’s lost 6 of their last 7 and many of them not all that close, and Kingston who has been struggling as well. We need 6 points in those home games. I really don’t feel there is any other option.

Then we go on another tough stretch for two weeks. Two against North Bay, one each against Oshawa and London with a road game in Barrie. Barrie has been weak but each of those other games are tougher games for sure.

Right now we are well within striking distance of the division lead. Four points back of both Oshawa and Brantford with a game in hand. We finish that last 13 game stretch with:

Niagara x2
Petes x2
Missy x2
Barrie x2
Brantford x2
Barrie
Oshawa
Erie

That is a relatively easy schedule. Three key games against Oshawa and Brantford but other than that, seven games against teams below .500, and three more against teams below us in the standings.

If they can find a way to get 11 or 12 points out of the tough stretch of 8 games, and they get upwards of 20 of 26 points on the easier tail end to finish the season, they could very well win the division. Add 32 points to the existing total and we end up with 86 points. Oshawa and/or Brantford would need to go 14-5-1 to finish their seasons to finish with 87 points. I think 84-86 is likely going to be the division winning number.

It is shaping up to be a fun finish.

 

[beastintheeast]

We have three home games coming up now. We have the Petes who are really weak right now, Kitchener who’s lost 6 of their last 7 and many of them not all that close, and Kingston who has been struggling as well. We need 6 points in those home games. I really don’t feel there is any other option.

Then we go on another tough stretch for two weeks. Two against North Bay, one each against Oshawa and London with a road game in Barrie. Barrie has been weak but each of those other games are tougher games for sure.

Right now we are well within striking distance of the division lead. Four points back of both Oshawa and Brantford with a game in hand. We finish that last 13 game stretch with:

Niagara x2
Petes x2
Missy x2
Barrie x2
Brantford x2
Barrie
Oshawa
Erie

That is a relatively easy schedule. Three key games against Oshawa and Brantford but other than that, seven games against teams below .500, and three more against teams below us in the standings.

If they can find a way to get 11 or 12 points out of the tough stretch of 8 games, and they get upwards of 20 of 26 points on the easier tail end to finish the season, they could very well win the division. Add 32 points to the existing total and we end up with 86 points. Oshawa and/or Brantford would need to go 14-5-1 to finish their seasons to finish with 87 points. I think 84-86 is likely going to be the division winning number.

It is shaping up to be a fun finish.

We have the easiest games but then again.

What concerns me with your plan is that we are going to bust oour assets tire our players and finish top again but be tired be sore going into the playoffs.

The other thing that I worry about is tht we will again be top and be drafting after some of the better players (offensive) WILL BE GONE.

Finishing 5-6 but healthy and rested with everyone knowing their roles would to me be a better scenario.

The only team I would not want to play in the first round is Brantford due to their arena