That’s flat out not true. Obviously they don’t only take the top 7 drafted guys, but the guys drafted in the first round definitely have an edge over the 4th round guy. To say they don’t is just wrong. Doesn’t mean Matier couldn’t beat out a 1st rounder in camp, but he’d have to badly outplay them. If they’re just the same they’re picking the 1st rounderJust a heads up. Team Canada doesn’t select a roster based on when and where you were drafted. Not sure they even care.
I say Matier is in. Clarke and Cuelemans out.
That’s flat out not true. Obviously they don’t only take the top 7 drafted guys, but the guys drafted in the first round definitely have an edge over the 4th round guy. To say they don’t is just wrong. Doesn’t mean Matier couldn’t beat out a 1st rounder in camp, but he’d have to badly outplay them. If they’re just the same they’re picking the 1st rounder
And for those that say that isn’t far, you also need to remember there’s a reason those guys were drafted in the first round lol.. they’re also very good at hockey
And here is someone else's opinion (Craig Button). He has the exact same top 6 I have with Clarke not being loaned and then his 7th is 1st rounder Denton Mateychuk
That’s flat out not true. Obviously they don’t only take the top 7 drafted guys, but the guys drafted in the first round definitely have an edge over the 4th round guy. To say they don’t is just wrong. Doesn’t mean Matier couldn’t beat out a 1st rounder in camp, but he’d have to badly outplay them. If they’re just the same they’re picking the 1st rounder
And for those that say that isn’t far, you also need to remember there’s a reason those guys were drafted in the first round lol.. they’re also very good at hockey
And here is someone else's opinion (Craig Button). He has the exact same top 6 I have with Clarke not being loaned and then his 7th is 1st rounder Denton Mateychuk
Craig Button isn’t watching games, only looking at draft position.
I agree that draft position has a very significant impact. However, participation in the Program of Excellence is more significant because draft position typically reflects the quality of the player. So, organically, the higher draft picks are usually the better players and their additions to the team reflect that more so than the simple fact they were drafted higher.
The other issue we need to look at is age distribution. Do they want to add younger guys that will participate next year? That is something that may not go in Matier’s favour.
Korchinski - Great player. Deserving of a spot
Zellweger - Returning player
DelMastro - Returning Player
Ceulemans - Good player but tough for me to judge since he’s playing NCAA
Lambos - Returning player
Mateychuk - underage 18 year old.
Allen - Good player
To me, the three returning players are maybe the most underwhelming players on that list. I think Matier is ahead of Allen almost certainly. Mateychuk is in the same situation as Clarke was last year. Great offensively but is his all around game strong enough?
To me, if we are assuming Clarke isn’t there this year and the three returning players a set in stone for this roster, then you have to think Korchinski gets the 4th spot. Depending on his performance, I’d like to think Mateychuk will make the roster more specifically for development on next years roster. That leaves two spots open for Matier, Ceulemans, and Allen. To me, Allen is the odd man out in that regard. If Clarke returns, I think Mateychuk is likely not going to get a spot.
That is my assessment based on Button’s list.
Side note, based on everything that has transpired with Othman, I highly doubt he gets an invite.
Zellweger is firmly in the argument for best D in the CHL, if I'm reading this correctly you are calling him one of the three most underwhelming on that list? Would be a highly debatable viewpoint to say the least.
For me I am convinced we are a very good team ( better than I thought they would be). Especially they haven't missed a beat without Beck and Boucher. As for being a true contender I' m waiting to see how they do in the three game stetch next week against Missy/NB/Petes three very good teams. My guess is though we'll be in the mix. And yes they will add at least an OA but probably one or two more players. As for fit you are correct sometimes it can mess up the room, but not worried with Boyd/Cameron...they will do their homework. Rumor is they took a pass on OthmannOK, I put this question out to the people on this board who are keener observers of junior hockey than I am - at what point is this crazy start no longer a mirage, and we can start considering the 67's as legit contenders? Obviously we hoped and expected that they would be better, but this? No one expected this. Sports can be delightfully unpredictable at times.
Related question - does this team go out and try to fill that last OA spot before the deadline, or does that risk messing with your team chemistry? I have heard junior hockey experts remark that sometimes, your OA players don't fit in your room quite as well as you'd like. Like I say, some of you will know the player we could target better than I, so I defer to you...
OK, I put this question out to the people on this board who are keener observers of junior hockey than I am - at what point is this crazy start no longer a mirage, and we can start considering the 67's as legit contenders? Obviously we hoped and expected that they would be better, but this? No one expected this. Sports can be delightfully unpredictable at times.
Related question - does this team go out and try to fill that last OA spot before the deadline, or does that risk messing with your team chemistry? I have heard junior hockey experts remark that sometimes, your OA players don't fit in your room quite as well as you'd like. Like I say, some of you will know the player we could target better than I, so I defer to you...
OK, I put this question out to the people on this board who are keener observers of junior hockey than I am - at what point is this crazy start no longer a mirage, and we can start considering the 67's as legit contenders? Obviously we hoped and expected that they would be better, but this? No one expected this. Sports can be delightfully unpredictable at times.
Related question - does this team go out and try to fill that last OA spot before the deadline, or does that risk messing with your team chemistry? I have heard junior hockey experts remark that sometimes, your OA players don't fit in your room quite as well as you'd like. Like I say, some of you will know the player we could target better than I, so I defer to you...
Very good observation and valid concerns/questions.
My read on this is I did not expect Ottawa to be where they are now. Anyone that says otherwise is flat out lying. I expected the eastern Conference to have a top 5 team component of Peterborough, Ottawa, North Bay, Barrie and Mississauga. I felt all five of those teams were likely to finish in the top 5 in some manner. So far, that seems to be holding mostly true with Kingston sort of poking their nose above Barrie.
I didn’t expect any team to run away with the conference pre-deadline. I say that knowing that post-deadline, teams will start to separate from the pack based on additional and injuries. If we look at the Standings now, only 4 points separate 2nd and 5th. BUT, Ottawa now has an 8 point lead on 2nd. I don’t think anyone would have suggested any team in the East would have that sort of lead no matter what team it was.
Is this a Mirage? NO. The early season mirage results tend to cap out after 8 games. That works both ways. Some team, like Kitchener, could have 0-5 starts but play .600+ hockey the rest of the season making their BAD start an aberration. Teams like Ottawa last year had the good start early only to fall off the cliff. Let’s not discuss reasons for it but it does happen. I don’t see this team falling off a cliff but I do see them slowing down, especially through the WJHC window with as many as three players gone. We have to hope Beck is back by then to help out. Ottawa had an .815 win% in 2020 pre-Covid shutdown. I think that should be a reasonable target for end of season which would translate into about 108-110 points. If Ottawa finishes there, that would be outstanding.
Deadline moves? There is a HUGE difference between pre-deadline and post-deadline results. Post-Deadline points are harder to come by. There are two factors for this.
1> Top teams make trades to improve their roster which makes them harder to play against. You can sometimes throw out first half win%’s in the post-deadline schedule.
2> Teams with more mature rosters are usually more capable. Some has to do with being able to handle the increased pace and tighter play but a lot of it has to do with endurance. Younger players simply are less equipped to load manage and they struggle in the second half of the season with consistency. We see this factor a lot in the playoffs.
So, is it likely Ottawa will see that same consistent level of performance out of 17 year olds like Pinelli, Gardiner and Foster? IMO No. Because they seem to be incredibly conditioned, that may not be an issue. They may maintain consistency but for that many 16-17-18 year old players maintaining that level of performance when they hadn’t shown that same degree of success in the past suggests they will slow down. All this means that if you want to maintain success and have options available for injury replacements and roster flexibility, Ottawa should enter the deadline looking for One Impact Centre, One Impact D-Man and One 19 year old Depth Forward (preferably a centre) that can provide support for a team already in a great position to compete.
Technically speaking, Ottawa could remain status quo and maybe be highly successful but I think at least one other team is going to blow its brains out at the deadline and pass Ottawa as the favourite. IMO, Ottawa needs to keep pace or even better, lap the field at the deadline if possible.
They're definitely a good team. But if they think they're way better than anyone else where they don't need to add any significant pieces and can still win, I don't see that happening. The benefit to Ottawa is they have an elite coach who appears to be able to get the most of the players. Whereas other teams have significantly more talent on paper, but the 67s are quite a bit higher than them in the standingsOK, I put this question out to the people on this board who are keener observers of junior hockey than I am - at what point is this crazy start no longer a mirage, and we can start considering the 67's as legit contenders? Obviously we hoped and expected that they would be better, but this? No one expected this. Sports can be delightfully unpredictable at times.
Related question - does this team go out and try to fill that last OA spot before the deadline, or does that risk messing with your team chemistry? I have heard junior hockey experts remark that sometimes, your OA players don't fit in your room quite as well as you'd like. Like I say, some of you will know the player we could target better than I, so I defer to you...
They're definitely a good team. But if they think they're way better than anyone else where they don't need to add any significant pieces and can still win, I don't see that happening. The benefit to Ottawa is they have an elite coach who appears to be able to get the most of the players. Whereas other teams have significantly more talent on paper, but the 67s are quite a bit higher than them in the standings
The 67s should never be "bad" under Cameron but this is their chance to make a title run as they lose Boucher, Beck, Tolnai, Matier after this season. Very tough to get better after losing your 4 best players in one off-season. If I'm OTT I'm dangling Frankie Marrelli for Christian Kyrou and Elias Cohen
Korchinski - Great player. Deserving of a spotCraig Button isn’t watching games, only looking at draft position.
I agree that draft position has a very significant impact. However, participation in the Program of Excellence is more significant because draft position typically reflects the quality of the player. So, organically, the higher draft picks are usually the better players and their additions to the team reflect that more so than the simple fact they were drafted higher.
The other issue we need to look at is age distribution. Do they want to add younger guys that will participate next year? That is something that may not go in Matier’s favour.
Korchinski - Great player. Deserving of a spot
Zellweger - Returning player
DelMastro - Returning Player
Ceulemans - Good player but tough for me to judge since he’s playing NCAA
Lambos - Returning player
Mateychuk - underage 18 year old.
Allen - Good player
To me, the three returning players are maybe the most underwhelming players on that list. I think Matier is ahead of Allen almost certainly. Mateychuk is in the same situation as Clarke was last year. Great offensively but is his all around game strong enough?
To me, if we are assuming Clarke isn’t there this year and the three returning players a set in stone for this roster, then you have to think Korchinski gets the 4th spot. Depending on his performance, I’d like to think Mateychuk will make the roster more specifically for development on next years roster. That leaves two spots open for Matier, Ceulemans, and Allen. To me, Allen is the odd man out in that regard. If Clarke returns, I think Mateychuk is likely not going to get a spot.
That is my assessment based on Button’s list.
Side note, based on everything that has transpired with Othman, I highly doubt he gets an invite.
I could see there being at least 1 team that offers an 06+picks for Kyrou. I could see the Petes offering Van Volsen for himThis is one of the biggest things I think many don’t understand. Some teams jump out of the gate really well because they are well prepared and somewhat ahead of the curve. But, the teams a little slower out of the gate usually catch up if they have the talent and experience. Then teams are on relatively equal footing. The difference is age and experience. Ottawa is young and relatively inexperienced. That will be their challenge, overcoming that.
This is why I truly think Ottawa needs to add three experienced players. They may be able to get away with adding one key player but only if injuries don’t creep in.
How would Ottawa strategically use Marrelli if they were willing to do so? That’s a quandary. If Ottawa can add Morrison, it takes away the OA component and fills a 1st line centre role and stretches out the offence quite well. It would only require draft picks. I don’t think Kyrou is the level of a player that teams will attack armed with 2022 1st round picks. If Ottawa were to go down that road, I think using a 17 year old like Ewles or Dever plus picks may be the way they go to acquire the second player. The final player as an experienced depth centre wouldn’t be a high level type of player. Just someone that can help kill penalties and win faceoffs while on the 4th line with a couple young guys. I think there are combinations out there the 67’s could utilize that don’t include Marrelli.
If they were to use Marrelli, I think it would need to be in a bigger trade than Kyrou and Cohen. Cohen really isn’t a centre. I think it would need to include Kyrou and one of Bressette or Saganiuk in a bigger deal involving some different players and pick combination. I don’t think Cohen moves the needle as an OA. If Ottawa were to do a deal like that, they’d move Gardiner to the 4th line centre spot and be completely dynamic.
The 16 year olds also have to waive their NTC’s in order to be dealt. The Otters have had a solid track record overall but have really struggled the past few years. There could be kids who wouldn’t want to go there.I could see there being at least 1 team that offers an 06+picks for Kyrou. I could see the Petes offering Van Volsen for him
There was talk around the draft that Van Volsen was selected over a different player because of his willingness to waive his NTC in order to be drafted higher. Wouldn't make sense for Van Volsen to say no. This year when they're good he'll be buried on the 4th line or scratched if they add more. Then next year they'll be entering a rebuild. If you go to ER you could be on a line with Malcolm Spence and on a team adding in the next couple yearsThe 16 year olds also have to waive their NTC’s in order to be dealt. The Otters have had a solid track record overall but have really struggled the past few years. There could be kids who wouldn’t want to go there.
Look at JR Avon in Peterborough who refused to waive to Niagara in the Akil Thomas trade. They ended up swapping Cam Butler who had a lot of promise at the time but players haven’t been developing in Niagara. Instead, Avon excelled with the Petes and earned an NHL contract.
The 16 year olds also have to waive their NTC’s in order to be dealt. The Otters have had a solid track record overall but have really struggled the past few years. There could be kids who wouldn’t want to go there.
Look at JR Avon in Peterborough who refused to waive to Niagara in the Akil Thomas trade. They ended up swapping Cam Butler who had a lot of promise at the time but players haven’t been developing in Niagara. Instead, Avon excelled with the Petes and earned an NHL contract.
Imo it's pretty clear Saggy decided to go the way of at least a partial sell off to accumulate assets to make a run around Misa in 2 years. That kid looks like the real deal. Would be very surprised Mintuyov does not follow at some point. Also clear the Petes/NB are all in...the picture is getting clearer in the east anyways.I believe the 17 year olds also need to waive their no trade clause. I believe all high school aged kids can block a trade.
Another big move in the Conference today. Is Saginaw selling off or are they making one strategic move? I have no idea to be honest. I think they will read the tea leaves leading up to the deadline before they make anymore moves.
Peterborough improved. North Bay improved. This is what happens at this time of year. We need to be prepared for teams trading up and narrowing that gap in the standings.
Kenny Walls just tweeted that he’s hearing the trade winds blowing in the O today. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 67’s make an OA addition now.I hope after the moves from our competitors that Boyd will make at least one move sooner rather than later. I am not worried there will be upgrades as he hinted strongly at that. I am worried if he waits for the deadline as I do feel home ice could be huge in a loaded east. As discussed before we could be quite shorthanded in a few weeks and our lead could shrink. Adding one impact forward soon would help imo.
Kenny Walls just tweeted that he’s hearing the trade winds blowing in the O today. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 67’s make an OA addition now.
I don't know if it's an OA but Kenny probably would not tweet that if it didn't involve the 67's. I wonder if Boyd wants to get stuff out of the way as he'll be busy with world juniors.
Maybe but he almost always gives a heads up when the poles make a move, we'll see I guess.Kenny is pretty connected so it may be more like a player is moving and the destination is still up in the air. Maybe Ottawa, maybe not.