Proposal: OTT/MIN

[Bazeek]

This feels like a potential minefield. I can obviously see the desire to "upgrade" with a more skilled Center there. But at the same time...what they're doing is kind of working. If you were getting a bona fide, clear cut, all-around upgrade at Center, that would obviously be desirable. But when you start rummaging around the bargain bin for someone "more skilled" but still very cheaply available, they're going to come with warts and holes in their game. That kind of lateral shuffling attempt can really upset the applecart, and end up being an actual downgrade...even if it seems like an upgrade in skill.


Just seems to me like Minnesota are probably better off ponying up a little more, to get somebody that's a little more of a firm upgrade than Tierney. I do see the appeal of bargain bin shopping given Minnesota's overall situation, and there's at least some reason to believe Tierney could be a good "change of scenery" candidate who could rebound a bit. But it's a real caveat emptor situation when you start trying to plug holes for basically nothing, on a roster that seems to be working alright as is.

It's kind of working for now, but I don't have a ton of confidence in it working in the playoffs.

I think moving a 1st for a more substantial rental makes a lot of sense for Minnesota, but it'll come down to prices and movement clauses. Hertl, Pavelski and Giroux could all be options, but if they're open to being traded they may have different destinations in mind. Minnesota's playing well, but I don't think they've really worked their way into bona fide contender status. Miller might work, but the extra year on his contract might complicate things.

In any event it probably comes down to prices. If the higher end players end up costing a 1st++ I just don't see Guerin biting. At that point he might look for extra depth or just stand pat, which is more or less what happened last summer.

 

[57special]

Dreger was the one that reported that the Sens and Wild have been scouting each other.

After Hartman and E Ek the depth kinda thins out, Gaudreau has spent most of his career in the minors and was somewhat of an unknown prior to last season with Pittsburgh, Rask probably won’t be on the roster if Minnesota acquires a roster player to gain more deadline cap space and is nothing more then a 4th line/13th forward, Sturm is relatively unproven with minimal ice time but does have a few playoff games under his belt and Bjugstad is currently injured and is frail at this stage of his career and has been used mostly as a RW.

Dewar only has 14 games in his career and is better suited as a LWer at this stage in his young career since he has been getting caved at the faceoff dot in January, I don’t see that getting any better for Dewar in May or June but I do like Dewar’s defensive prowess as he plays a good 2-way game for an inexperienced pro going thru short seasons prior to this season.

The Wild are going to need players down the middle as injuries due happen down the stretch and in the playoffs so losing any one or two of Minnesota centers really hurts there chances at making a deep run in the playoffs. Tierney also brings playoff experience as he went to the SC finals with San Jose.

Dewar is a vg Center. He has speed, two way ability, and for a smaller player, can handle physicality. He has a 46% FO avg so far in the NHL, but has been trending up in the past 5 gp, with averages all over 50%. Hardly getting "caved". Most young C's( he is 22yo) do far worse on the dot when they first come up. He'll be fine- the only reason he doesn't play more C is because Sturm is so damn good.

To call Sturm "unproven " means that you don't watch the Wild. He is 6'3" with a long reach, very fast, great in the dot, fantastic defensively, and has offensive up side. Most Wild fans want him to be put in between Boldy and Fiala instead of Gaudreau. He is a mature player that has been terrific for MN, given where he plays and the lack of opportunity. Last year he had 17 pts. in 50 gp in a strictly defensive role. This year he has 16 pts. in 39 gp.

Tierney and his fading game do nothing for the Wild that they can't already do with Sturm, Gaudreau, Duhaime, and Dewar, all of whom make 1/3rd the amount of money that Tierney does. I am happy to make jokes about Rask, but he scores at a much greater PPG than Tierney, wins 50% of his FO's, and is a 13th forward anyway. Why would MN pay anything extra for the dubious pleasure of acquiring Tierney?

Even a straight trade, Rask for Tierney, is one of those that seems pointless. Rask knows the system, and what is expected of him when he plays. Tierney doesn't.

 

[57special]

It's kind of working for now, but I don't have a ton of confidence in it working in the playoffs.

I think moving a 1st for a more substantial rental makes a lot of sense for Minnesota, but it'll come down to prices and movement clauses. Hertl, Pavelski and Giroux could all be options, but if they're open to being traded they may have different destinations in mind. Minnesota's playing well, but I don't think they've really worked their way into bona fide contender status. Miller might work, but the extra year on his contract might complicate things.

In any event it probably comes down to prices. If the higher end players end up costing a 1st++ I just don't see Guerin biting. At that point he might look for extra depth or just stand pat, which is more or less what happened last summer.

They are clearly one of the top two teams in a weakened West right now. I would say that they definitely are a bona fide Cup contender. Whether that means that they should spend draft and prospect capital on getting a Center is another thing, as the ramped up cap penalties next year make keeping anyone long term near impossible, and Guerin has said that he isn't a fan of rentals.

 

[rynryn]

he also doesn't want to disrupt a team if he doesn't have a good feeling about an on-paper upgrade. From last year:

"I don't think I can say, a year from now, two years from now [will be that time]. It'll be a feeling," Guerin said. "I think it's really important to know your group as well, to feel out your group. If you can, if the group can absorb a trade deadline deal and make somebody feel welcome and have it go successfully, who you're getting, can they handle it ... those types of things. I really think when the time comes, there just has to be a lot of thought that goes into it."

I don't know how familiar he is or his advisors and assistants are with some of the targets that have been floating around but I think there would have to be some level of familiarity for him to even consider it right now.

 

[biturbo19]

It's kind of working for now, but I don't have a ton of confidence in it working in the playoffs.

I think moving a 1st for a more substantial rental makes a lot of sense for Minnesota, but it'll come down to prices and movement clauses. Hertl, Pavelski and Giroux could all be options, but if they're open to being traded they may have different destinations in mind. Minnesota's playing well, but I don't think they've really worked their way into bona fide contender status. Miller might work, but the extra year on his contract might complicate things.

In any event it probably comes down to prices. If the higher end players end up costing a 1st++ I just don't see Guerin biting. At that point he might look for extra depth or just stand pat, which is more or less what happened last summer.

That's fair. I'm not all that sold on how their success as configured, with that Center depth (or relative lack thereof) will continue to play into the playoffs, where those kind of weakness can end up really exposed. I also get that next year's cap situation gets a lot more difficult to manage, and has to be factored into any longer-term upgrade (which in turn, impacts how much value you can afford to give up). It's also hard to get a clear read on where values are going to go toward the deadline this year, or what is even going to be out there.

But it seems to me like a situation where you're better off either figuring out how to make that cap situation work with a real, tangible, clear upgrade somehow. And if you can put in place a plan to have a non-rental work longer-term, that really changes the sort of "value" you can afford to spend on a deal.

If you're stuck bargain-hunting, i still think there are probably better options out there than Tierney though. Expiring, cheaper contracts who are more proven fitting into a wider range of systems. Or...you just roll with what you've got, and evaluate how that goes and where that puts you for next year and beyond. If you're not viewing the team as a "bona fide contender" this year, it's hard to really invest much in a temporary potential bandaid anyway. Especially when, like the post below suggests...even Guerin seems pretty keyed in on the fact that "buy in" and team chemistry are probably a big part of the success Minnesota are having this year. I get the reticence about lack of center depth heading for the playoffs...but weirdly built teams that have really strong buy-in and the right players/goaltenders hot at the right moment can do some serious damage in the playoffs from time to time.


It's where if i'm shopping for a bargain barrel Center with a little bit of skill...i probably look at someone in the mold of Namestnikov. Who has played in a lot of different places and systems, with a pretty reasonable "floor" to his play...but still some upside. I can't see a guy like that being expensive to acquire, contract fits cheaply and expires. Might be a little bit more acquisition cost than Tierney...but would seem worth it to me, just for the lower likelihood of disrupting things negatively.

he also doesn't want to disrupt a team if he doesn't have a good feeling about an on-paper upgrade. From last year:


I don't know how familiar he is or his advisors and assistants are with some of the targets that have been floating around but I think there would have to be some level of familiarity for him to even consider it right now.