OT: Other Chicago & General Sports Thread XXVII: Baez Time!

[ChiGuySez]

CJ Edwards

CJ Edwards Set to Return? (Update-Pitching in Surprise on 23rd)

Update-It appears as though it is indeed a return to game action. C.J. Edwards will pitch first for the Cubs rookie league team on July 23rd.

chicagonow

Analysis

Fantasy Baseball Prospect Profile: CJ Edwards One Of Few Cubs Potential Starting Pitchers

As Nathaniel Stoltz pointed out about Edwards in his article for FanGraphs back in July of 2013, being such a lanky pitcher can lead to problems maintaining velocity. The best estimation now has him at 165 lbs, or pretty much my playing weight when I was 16 (Edwards turns 22 in September). Stoltz correctly points out that while Edwards can hit 95 on his fast ball early in games, that velocity can fade to consistently under 90 as the game wears on. That varied fastball is complemented by a hammer curve ball and a change that can be up to 10 MPH off of his fast ball. Having three pitches, while in development there are no reports that any of them will be below-average, is a positive for the young righty.

xnsports

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Sounds like a car dealership.

 

[ChiGuySez]

How the Cubs are Dealing with the Post-CBA Draft World

The Astros have a messy situation with Brady Aiken. With the window to sign the first overall pick closing, the situation has gotten ugly with agent, I mean advisor, Casey Close accusing the Astros of negotiating in bad faith.

The Astros certainly have had a bad couple of months in terms of their public relations, perhaps finally stealing the limelight the Mariners enjoyed(?) this offseason. It is impossible for us as outsiders to know who is truly wrong in this circumstance, but it's easy to place the blame on the draft structure established by the current CBA.

The Astros aren't likely to pocket whatever savings they might get from Aiken, if he does sign, but rather to invest it into more players as the Cubs have done in the previous drafts. Here is a good breakdown of the math involved in the Astros situation.

The reason this has taken on such importance is that teams are unwilling to suffer the draconian penalties for overspending in the draft. At 105% to budget, teams forfeit their highest draft pick the followin season. There is no top 10 protection for this either. That is the reason that no team has gone over that limit since this system went into place. This is also in stark contrast to the international amateur market.

The Cubs and Rangers blew past their respective bonus pools, each accruing the maximum penalty. The Yankees and Red Sox this season are going even further. The last estimate available for the Yankees had them spending over $15 million on international amateurs on a bonus pool of just over $2 million.

The Cubs have gone up to that 105% limit in each of their drafts, and I was curious to see if that was a strategy that a majority of teams are using at this point. The data is incomplete as of yet, so I focused on the first two post-CBA drafts. Here is a chart organized by percentage of available money spent showing the Cubs ranked at the top.

chicagonow

 

[Gootie]

Bulls to sign Aaron Brooks

nice depth signing

 

[MurrayBannerman]

How about CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda for some of your prospects?

Sure. You pay all of their salary. We'll give you someone who won't sniff AA.

 

[Cullksinikers]

Bulls to sign Aaron Brooks

nice depth signing

One of the realistic and good options on the cheap.

And imagine if the Aiken becomes a free agent and the Cubs get him. Edwards, Aiken, Almora, Baez, Soler, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, etc. Add in that television deal, and with money to blow and some top prospects panning out, you've got yourself a nice club.

 

[Sarava]

I thought the Astros signed Aiken within a few days of the draft? I remember reading that...what happened that he all of the sudden is not signed?

edit - just found a story on this. The Astros are sounding sleazy with how they are handling this (if the article I read is accurate).

 

[Cullksinikers]

The Astros offered him $6.5M but withdrew the offer due to concerns with his health (elbow). Then they offered him lower-salary deals but Aiken declined. His camp wanted the $6.5M they were offered before. He might not go to college because he had been working with an agent. If he is not NCAA eligible, the grievance process he is filing may end up in him becoming a FA. Or, he goes to JUCO or UCLA. Another interesting tidbit is that there was another guy Houston didn't sign (Nix) where they pulled an offer ($1.5M). I believe if he wins his grievance of that total, Houston has to forfeit their next two first-round picks for going over a 17 percent bonus pool or something along those lines. They automatically get the second overall pick next year since they never signed their first-round pick first overall, who, of course, was Aiken, so if they finish with the worst record, they could have the top two picks. Or they could have the top two picks and lose them both if Nix and/or possibly Aiken win their grievances, respectively.

 

[Sarava]

Thanks Cullk. If what I've heard sounds accurate, I hope they stick it to the Astros and they lose their picks. Sounds bushleague to me.

 

[Cullksinikers]

Thanks Cullk. If what I've heard sounds accurate, I hope they stick it to the Astros and they lose their picks. Sounds bushleague to me.

You are welcome, sir. Anyone in here can correct me if I am wrong.

The Astros are a small market team who recently had a payroll smaller than some of the top paid players in the MLB. They saw injury concerns as an opportunity to give lowball offers to new draft picks after giving them previous offers. When they pulled out of previous commitments/offers, it pissed off a lot of people. Aiken's injury can't be that serious if they still offered him $5 million yesterday.

 

[Sarava]

I think for the good of baseball, they should declare Aiken a free agent and he could sign with the White Sox. A rotation of Sale, Rodon and Aiken sounds fair

 

[ADifferentTim]

Sure. You pay all of their salary. We'll give you someone who won't sniff AA.

I was thinking more of the Cubs' top prospects, alongside draft rights and picks.

By the way, what would it take for the White Sox to take over the Cubs in today's baseball environment in Chicago?

 

[Sarava]

I was thinking more of the Cubs' top prospects, alongside draft rights and picks.

By the way, what would it take for the White Sox to take over the Cubs in today's baseball environment in Chicago?

Not going to happen. I think the balance got a little less lopsided when the Sox won the World Series. But the Sox just can't compete with the tourist attraction that is Wrigley Field.

 

[Sarava]

Speaking of Wrigley. I was there for the Billy Joel concert last night. I had front row in section 427 (upper deck). There was a very large man sitting right behind us. When he sat down, you could feel the upper deck swaying. It freaked me out.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

The Astros offered him $6.5M but withdrew the offer due to concerns with his health (elbow). Then they offered him lower-salary deals but Aiken declined. His camp wanted the $6.5M they were offered before. He might not go to college because he had been working with an agent. If he is not NCAA eligible, the grievance process he is filing may end up in him becoming a FA. Or, he goes to JUCO or UCLA. Another interesting tidbit is that there was another guy Houston didn't sign (Nix) where they pulled an offer ($1.5M). I believe if he wins his grievance of that total, Houston has to forfeit their next two first-round picks for going over a 17 percent bonus pool or something along those lines. They automatically get the second overall pick next year since they never signed their first-round pick first overall, who, of course, was Aiken, so if they finish with the worst record, they could have the top two picks. Or they could have the top two picks and lose them both if Nix and/or possibly Aiken win their grievances, respectively.

Did Aiken's camp at first turn down 6.5M offer? Because if they did then the Astros are well within right not to put it back on table with injury info

Anyway you put it though the MLB draft process and salary structure is so poor and pointless overall. Just set limits on each slot/round $$$ wise that prospects are forced to accept like every other league

 

[IU Hawks fan]

You are welcome, sir. Anyone in here can correct me if I am wrong.

The Astros are a small market team who recently had a payroll smaller than some of the top paid players in the MLB. They saw injury concerns as an opportunity to give lowball offers to new draft picks after giving them previous offers. When they pulled out of previous commitments/offers, it pissed off a lot of people. Aiken's injury can't be that serious if they still offered him $5 million yesterday.

The Astros are NOT a small market team. 10th biggest market in the league. This is a team that was in the top half of payroll from 2002 until 2010 and had a $103MM payroll as recently as 2009.

Being cheap and bottoming out to rebuild =/= small market

Fact is, they had concerns about his arm. The $6.5MM was contingent on him passing a physical, which he FAILED.

 

[Cullksinikers]

The Astros are NOT a small market team. 10th biggest market in the league. This is a team that was in the top half of payroll from 2002 until 2010 and had a $103MM payroll as recently as 2009.

Being cheap and bottoming out to rebuild =/= small market

Fact is, they had concerns about his arm. The $6.5MM was contingent on him passing a physical, which he FAILED.

You are right. I meant they just spend like a small market team. Houston is the fourth largest U.S. city.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Astros ownership in past has shown they will spend $$$ if team is contending

No reason for them to spend big $$$ while rebuilding and no reason to give a kid with potential arm/elbow problems big $$$ either

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Astros ownership in past has shown they will spend $$$ if team is contending

I have no doubts that they will eventually, but they do have a new owner as of 2011.

 

[Sarava]

What sounds odd to me, is that the difference in their offers is about 1.5 mil? The article I read mentioned it's about the cost of a backup outfielder for one season. It just seems odd they would cause this fuss over that kind of money....given the talent this kid has.

Unless their whole goal was to get the guy to refuse it and they get the #2 pick next year. But if that's their intent, then they should stand to lose their pick next year, right? I don't think the fallback pick is meant for teams changing their minds on players, but players being unwilling to sign, right?

 

[Crow]

No one asked me, but their concerns are legitimate. They made the kid a fair second offer given his physicality and likelihood to get injured, and I bet he soon regrets not taking it. If I am a houston fan, I 'd much prefer to take my chances with the second pick next year.

 

[DPHawk]

How could you know how legitimate their concerns are? Who knows what kind of injury risk this UCL issue creates but RA Dickey doesn't even have a UCL and is throwing 200+ innings deep in his 30's. The Astros made the minimum offer until the very last minute and didn't offer 5M until 5 minutes before the deadline. Houston may have been right to be wary but there's no way to know until this plays out.

 

[ADifferentTim]

Astros ownership in past has shown they will spend $$$ if team is contending

The only example I still remember seeing this happen was back in 2005, when the Astros went to the World Series for the 1st time in franchise history.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

The only example I still remember seeing this happen was back in 2005, when the Astros went to the World Series for the 1st time in franchise history.

Do you read? I just said when their highest spending year was on this page.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Crane has money as well. Hell they're already starting to spend on extensions.