OT: Severe Weather Discussion

[BossyMVP]

GFS/ECMWF have held pretty steady. NAM could definitely be getting some convective feedback.

GFS had 3-6 inches for the Island 2 days ago. Now it has over 12 inches. NAM was the only model to show a northward shift from 48 hours ago.

The Winds tomorrow with the snowfall rate will be amazing. I suggest you all take it in because you will not see this again for a long time. And I hope we keep power.

 

[GTislanders]

GFS had 3-6 inches for the Island 2 days ago. Now it has over 12 inches. NAM was the only model to show a northward shift from 48 hours ago.

The Winds tomorrow with the snowfall rate will be amazing. I suggest you all take it in because you will not see this again for a long time. And I hope we keep power.

There will be widespread outages, i fear.

 

[GTislanders]

You get a medal when it's over lol. Lets see how it evolves but it's looking pretty silly right now.

LOL at Lonnie Quinn calling for 4-8" on LI this afternoon on 660WFAN. what a clown.

Lol, lonnie. Wouldnt go higher than 15 inches just a couple hours ago. Guys a drunk. There will be 20 inches of snow on the ground by 2 pm tomorrow. And im being conservative.

 

[BossyMVP]

Lol, lonnie. Wouldnt go higher than 15 inches just a couple hours ago. Guys a drunk. There will be 20 inches of snow on the ground by 2 pm tomorrow. And im being conservative.

Only guy I trust is lee goldberg. And after tonight, Nick Gregory. Nick looked like he was having an aneurysm during his forecast explaining why he needed to increase his total. Lonnie is good for showing you how to roll up sleeves and comb your hair if you decide to go to the Blue Oyster.

 

[RMimagery]

As bad as hurricane Sandy was, lost power for 15 days in Amity Harbor, that can help us now. Many poles were replaced or strengthened. The ground was soggy from a lot of rain in the prior 2 months and that contributed to the devastation. We haven't had much rain at all lately.

Trying to be positive...

 

[wingnutks]

GFS had 3-6 inches for the Island 2 days ago. Now it has over 12 inches. NAM was the only model to show a northward shift from 48 hours ago.

The Winds tomorrow with the snowfall rate will be amazing. I suggest you all take it in because you will not see this again for a long time. And I hope we keep power.

GFS was always between .75-1.25 qpf but has obviously track nwd.

Also, This can definitely be historic, but I am not sure how everyone is forgetting the storm the NAM nailed just 2 years ago where most of LI had 28-32" of snow.

 

[wingnutks]

NAM is always overdone, but i wouldnt call the GFS as having stayed steady. Its now closing in on 1.5" + for LI, yesterday it was .75. SREF is just...i cant even..

I cant fathom some of these snowfall totals, only because history tells me, these things dont happen on LI....so likely they wont, but even if they come close...its still a major major snowstorm

PS, looking at the radar coming out of virginia, i wouldnt call that convective feedback...id just call it convection....35-45dbz's headed straight for DCA/BMI...

This is what the entire office thought in 2013 when the NAM showed 4" qpf from deformation sitting over LI for 12 hours... we ended up with other 30" over alot of LI.

 

[MJF]

6:45AM

Bayside, Queens-near Fort Totten

Just over 3" of snow on my front lawn.

Windy. Snowing sideways.

 

[1calledsteve]

6:45AM

Bayside, Queens-near Fort Totten

Just over 3" of snow on my front lawn.

Windy. Snowing sideways.

I will give updates as I can. I'm east end, South shore, Shirley/moriches area. As of 7:45 we are approaching 5" of snow.

Blowing snow already making drifts in the back yard. The wind is what really scares me about this storm.

But hey, I went to school in buffalo, I have dealt with 7ft of snow and then 10 miles away less than 6" so its not too bad.

Cold never bothered me anyways...

 

[Abe Vukota]

I will give updates as I can. I'm east end, South shore, Shirley/moriches area. As of 7:45 we are approaching 5" of snow.

Blowing snow already making drifts in the back yard. The wind is what really scares me about this storm.

But hey, I went to school in buffalo, I have dealt with 7ft of snow and then 10 miles away less than 6" so its not too bad.

Cold never bothered me anyways...

Back to Arendelle with you.

 

[stranger34]

whats the latest forecast from the HF Weather Crew?

 

[teknics]

I will give updates as I can. I'm east end, South shore, Shirley/moriches area. As of 7:45 we are approaching 5" of snow.

Blowing snow already making drifts in the back yard. The wind is what really scares me about this storm.

But hey, I went to school in buffalo, I have dealt with 7ft of snow and then 10 miles away less than 6" so its not too bad.

Cold never bothered me anyways...

Further east here, East Hampton - 3" and blowing good.

 

[MJF]

8:30AM

Bayside, Queens

7" of blowing, drifting snow.

 

[stranger34]

Stewart Manor, no crazy totals yet... around what MJF is reporting, but lots of drifting.

Stewart Avenue is plowed but still snow covered. Cars running

 

[TeamKidd]

I have no idea how much snow is outside, likely 7-8 inches

Latest is status quo, very heavy snow over suffolk and northern nassau right now, some dry air trying to work in here but i'm dubious as to how much does. forecast on target from last night, brunt of the storm through this afternoon, then slowly winding down overnight...when all is said and done, 1-2 feet, more in areas that get stuck under a convective band...

best chance for thundersnow through 5pm today

 

[wingnutks]

I have no idea how much snow is outside, likely 7-8 inches

Latest is status quo, very heavy snow over suffolk and northern nassau right now, some dry air trying to work in here but i'm dubious as to how much does. forecast on target from last night, brunt of the storm through this afternoon, then slowly winding down overnight...when all is said and done, 1-2 feet, more in areas that get stuck under a convective band...

best chance for thundersnow through 5pm today

Dry slot looks pretty substantial on WV

 

[TeamKidd]

Dry slot looks pretty substantial on WV

yes but double barrel low just forming, Northward extent of low should be tapering off and dry slot over md/jersey is backfilling with convection...gonna be more in and out from here on in but definitely heavy bands to rotate through, plus the main band to drift south again once storm pivots ...

 

[kostnkost]

Don't let the dry slot fool you, that will get filled in real quick. I read that the LIRR will be shut down with 10"or more and sustained winds of 30 mph or more. We(Kings Park) have 7-8 inches already, so I fully expect not to make this game, and to eat $400 worth of tickets:

 

[teknics]

Getting worse out here in the sticks. Way worse.

 

[TeamKidd]

Getting worse out here in the sticks. Way worse.

suffolk been getting pounded with 3-4" snowfall rates for a long while now, i imagine the snow is piling up quickly.

more banding setting up and what looks like a thunderstorm lurking off the south shore of long island....

latest ADDITIONAL projections from HRRR model....

 

[BrockLobster]

6" in my shorts if that helps anyone....

 

[MJF]

6" in my shorts if that helps anyone....

Thanks for that on the spot report.

 

[kostnkost]

As per Arthur Staple the game is postponed tonight

 

[GTislanders]

100 mph gusts in the long island sound. Much of the cape in jersey up through AC is flooding bad. Many neighborhoods under water close to the beach.

The meat of the storm is this afternoon. Almost 8 inches already in smithttown. Epic storm.

 

[MJF]

10:30am. 8 1/2" of snow in Bayside.

Not as windy right now. Rate of snowfall seems to have tapered off for the moment.