OT: Severe Weather Discussion

[Bunk Moreland]

more snow, two pretty major models put us over a foot as of this evening...

I usually have no idea what you guys are talking about with different models and codes... but it's pretty cool to see the back and forth and uncertainty here that is also probably going on in every news station weather room (if that's what they call it). Lol

 

[TeamKidd]

I usually have no idea what you guys are talking about with different models and codes... but it's pretty cool to see the back and forth and uncertainty here that is also probably going on in every news station weather room (if that's what they call it). Lol

yeah its part science, part Art trying to read these models and decipher the truth from the noise. the basic problem is you have computer models designed to predict large scale events trying to decide a snow band within 50 miles. they're just not equipped to do it. it's like trying to perform surgery with an Axe. They're not detailed enough and they certainly dont have enough data input to make them accurate to within 50 miles 2 days out.

now back to the regularly scheduled panic

...anyone need some bread and milk? ...gas?

 

[GTislanders]

You may very well get your wish, if the 0z GFS is still holding hands with the NAM, then i think you might be onto something. Computer models are often really ****** at handling dynamic situations...small farts one way or another have huge impacts later on in the forecast period...

I know you just saw the results of the 21 SREF, right? Hey, it was never my wish, just my belief lol

 

[eoin92]

yeah its part science, part Art trying to read these models and decipher the truth from the noise. the basic problem is you have computer models designed to predict large scale events trying to decide a snow band within 50 miles. they're just not equipped to do it. it's like trying to perform surgery with an Axe. They're not detailed enough and they certainly dont have enough data input to make them accurate to within 50 miles 2 days out.

now back to the regularly scheduled panic

...anyone need some bread and milk? ...gas?

How about oil. My burner just blew. Was spewing water all over the basement. Talk about timing.

 

[islesjuncky]

This is crazy first were 12-16 then 6 to 12 then 4 to 8 back to 8 to 12 then 12 then 8 to 12 then 5 to 8 and now 12 to 18.

Thus is fun

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I know you just saw the results of the 21 SREF, right? Hey, it was never my wish, just my belief lol

I have no idea what you're talking about in this post.

 

[islesjuncky]

I have no idea what you're talking about in this post.

Kills us with snow

 

[GTislanders]

I have no idea what you're talking about in this post.

Basically, this is one model that continues with the trend of the precipitation reaching further north than expected- into CT. Because there is a sharp gradient, the difference between 20 inches and 3 inches could be a distance of less than 50 square miles in either direction.

If the gradient reaches further North then expect heavier snow totals. The NAM is up next and thats a strong guidance. So lets see if the trend verifies.

 

[GTislanders]

The NAM verifies baby! 12-18 inches of snow more then likely headed to LI. Locally higher amounts. Storm tracking further into southern new England. 3-4 inch per hour snowbands sit over LI at times saturday with the NAM. Expect thundersnow as well.

Cant wait to see the local meteorologists all raise the totals tomorrow.

For those keeping track, it takes the low off the coast of baltimore- SNJ which basically buries LI under almost 2 ft of snow. Thats a little much for my liking but the trend verifies in a big way.

 

[islesjuncky]

The NAM verifies baby! 12-18 inches of snow more then likely headed to LI. Locally higher amounts. Storm tracking further into southern new England. 3-4 inch per hour snowbands sit over LI at times saturday with the NAM. Expect thundersnow as well.

Cant wait to see the local meteorologists all raise the totals tomorrow.

For those keeping track, it takes the low off the coast of baltimore- SNJ which basically buries LI under almost 2 ft of snow. Thats a little much for my liking but the trend verifies in a big way.

Sign me up

 

[Nautica54]

Have tickets for Saturday's game vs flyers....chances it's postponed????? How's that usually handled

 

[TeamKidd]

The NAM verifies baby! 12-18 inches of snow more then likely headed to LI. Locally higher amounts. Storm tracking further into southern new England. 3-4 inch per hour snowbands sit over LI at times saturday with the NAM. Expect thundersnow as well.

Cant wait to see the local meteorologists all raise the totals tomorrow.

For those keeping track, it takes the low off the coast of baltimore- SNJ which basically buries LI under almost 2 ft of snow. Thats a little much for my liking but the trend verifies in a big way.

the NAM is notorious for being overdone with QPF, but the model trend and insistence is hard to ignore...if 0z GFS continues holding NAM's hand...then i'm ready to be on board for some serious PANIC TIME lol


all this shop talk on the islanders message board lol

 

[Islesfan22]

Geez every snow storm the media and public wayyyyyyyy overreact. Tomorrow people are going to shop for groceries like there going to be trapped in there house for a week.

 

[islesjuncky]

Geez every snow storm the media and public wayyyyyyyy overreact. Tomorrow people are going to shop for groceries like there going to be trapped in there house for a week.

Right now it's only the people on social media reacting. None of this has reached tv yet. Boy people may be in for a surprise

 

[islesjuncky]

Have tickets for Saturday's game vs flyers....chances it's postponed????? How's that usually handled

I doubt it would be postponed. Really depends on what happens Saturday

 

[PK Cronin]

Have tickets for Saturday's game vs flyers....chances it's postponed????? How's that usually handled

At the Coliseum they'd give you tickets to another game when there was severe weather scenarios like this. But, who knows now. As for the game itself, the rule is typically that if both teams are present the game is played.


Any of you guys have any input on the middle of DelMarVa? Been a while since I got an update. Would love to get snow early tomorrow so I can cut out of work.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

At the Coliseum they'd give you tickets to another game when there was severe weather scenarios like this. But, who knows now.


Any of you guys have any input on the middle of DelMarVa? Been a while since I got an update. Would love to get snow early tomorrow so I can cut out of work.

I hear they will let you watch warmups for one game next season. But only if your a STH

 

[PK Cronin]

I hear they will let you watch warmups for one game next season. But only if your a STH

On a Wednesday, during pre-season*.

 

[BelovedIsles]

This is crazy first were 12-16 then 6 to 12 then 4 to 8 back to 8 to 12 then 12 then 8 to 12 then 5 to 8 and now 12 to 18.

Thus is fun

Lol I think I enjoy the build up more than the actual impact.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

What will happen to NYC/JC?

 

[wingnutks]

the NAM is notorious for being overdone with QPF, but the model trend and insistence is hard to ignore...if 0z GFS continues holding NAM's hand...then i'm ready to be on board for some serious PANIC TIME lol


all this shop talk on the islanders message board lol

NAM is always overdone with QPF... except one time I think in 2013 or 2012 when the NAM showed a winter storm with PWATs in the 2s and QPF of 4"...2.5" more than any other model. The storm sat over LI and dumped almost 3' of snow in some spots.

 

[wingnutks]

What will happen to NYC/JC?

~1'-ish

 

[BroadwayJay*]

~1'-ish

Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.

Better get some milk and stuff.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Wonder how much snow it takes for the trains to stop running..

 

[Riseonfire]

I'm wondering how much snow needed for cheap tickets on Saturday.