OT: MLS closing in on NFL, NBA, MLB in U.S. - Landon Donovan

[Brodie]

Former MLS soccer player promotes MLS, shocker. League did great work in the last decade to grow but still has a long way before reaching Top 4 level. Top 3, 2 or 1 within the next 5, 10 or 15 years is a pipe dream.

His is not even targeting Top 4 as if MLS was already bigger than NHL. In many years perhaps.

While I agree that the NHL belongs on such a list, in many parts of the country it is completely invisible to sports fans.

I know people from California and many of them aren't even aware of their local hockey teams. A TV station in LA used a Sacramento Kings logo when the LA Kings won the Stanley Cup.

 

[SirQuacksALot]

While I agree that the NHL belongs on such a list, in many parts of the country it is completely invisible to sports fans.

I know people from California and many of them aren't even aware of their local hockey teams. A TV station in LA used a Sacramento Kings logo when the LA Kings won the Stanley Cup.

We don't talk about LA.

 

[Brodie]

Nobody is dismissing it as the same old, same old. They're dismissing it as ever catching up to MLB, NBA, NFL or NHL. Those are the best leagues in their sport in the world. The MLS is like 10th in their sport and that makes it almost impossible to pass the best leagues in another sport in terms of popularity.

I think MLS has massive potential.

The issue with the old "blah blah blah they said Pele would make soccer huge in 1975 blah blah blah" line is that it peppers over the way soccer has grown, which is slowly but dramatically, in the US. It started with Pele, then came the '94 World Cup, then came the USWNT, then the USMNT, then the Beckham celebrity craze, then an interest in the EPL, etc. MLS was founded in the middle of that and has slowly, but consistently, grown. Now it sits at 1/5th of the NHL's revenues, but is still something like the third of fourth most popular soccer league in the country.

There are kids out there, kids aged 25 and under, who love soccer. It's their main sport. Sunday mornings are Spurs v. Arsenal, that's where it begins and ends. These kids have no buying power, they don't have families. But at some point they will, and when that happens they will try to import the soccer fandom to their future offspring. That is when MLS hopes it will take it's great leap forward, as the kids raised in the aftermath of the 2002 USMNT World Cup performance look for a way to hook their future children on soccer and settle on season tickets to Minnesota United or whatever.

 

[PCSPounder]

its 5th in the US in revenue...but its a distant 5th.

NFL - 12.9 billion
MLB - 10.1 billion
NBA - 7.1 billion
NHL - 4.7 billion
MLS - 0.96 billion

Youth soccer business two years ago = 5 billion.

IOW, we can tell from where further growth will come.

I'm going to be very skeptical about the ability of the NHL to truly grow until its owners actually invest in programs that try to reach more youth than they currently see. Some of that is the nature of the sport, most of that is the nature of the owners.

 

[eddygee]

I think MLS has massive potential.

The issue with the old "blah blah blah they said Pele would make soccer huge in 1975 blah blah blah" line is that it peppers over the way soccer has grown, which is slowly but dramatically, in the US. It started with Pele, then came the '94 World Cup, then came the USWNT, then the USMNT, then the Beckham celebrity craze, then an interest in the EPL, etc. MLS was founded in the middle of that and has slowly, but consistently, grown. Now it sits at 1/5th of the NHL's revenues, but is still something like the third of fourth most popular soccer league in the country.

There are kids out there, kids aged 25 and under, who love soccer. It's their main sport. Sunday mornings are Spurs v. Arsenal, that's where it begins and ends. These kids have no buying power, they don't have families. But at some point they will, and when that happens they will try to import the soccer fandom to their future offspring. That is when MLS hopes it will take it's great leap forward, as the kids raised in the aftermath of the 2002 USMNT World Cup performance look for a way to hook their future children on soccer and settle on season tickets to Minnesota United or whatever.

Those are the keywords slowly, consistently grown. People may look at the incremental TV ratings gains scoff and say they've only grown 4% and 6% the last two years. Yeah but when you factor in the last 6 yrs that have featured growth ranging from 4 to 15% each yr while the average annual rate of growth since 2013 has been a little over 9% the slow but steady growth theory has merit. It means the growth has deep roots it's organic and isn't a passing fad. People don't tend to appreciate that type of growth as they want to see a overnight sensation. Give me a fund that's yielding that type of growth over the long run over a quick hotshot stock where you could make a ton of money one day but lose it all the next.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

How many years has soccer been the "sport of the future" in North America now?

I'm a soccer fan as well, so that's not to say it won't happen eventually, but you can't blame people for rolling their eyes at this.

 

[eddygee]

How many years has soccer been the "sport of the future" in North America now?

I'm a soccer fan as well, so that's not to say it won't happen eventually, but you can't blame people for rolling their eyes at this.

I liked Donovan much more as a player but he lost me with this one. It's sort of comment that you read and cringe. It would've come off alot better if he would've claimed MLS will be smack dab in the middle of the the top US leagues or that it's undoubtedly a Big 5 now instead of Big 4 but he reached a tad too far here.

 

[Bookie21]

The issue with the old "blah blah blah they said Pele would make soccer huge in 1975 blah blah blah" line is that it peppers over the way soccer has grown, which is slowly but dramatically, in the US. It started with Pele, then came the '94 World Cup, then came the USWNT, then the USMNT, then the Beckham celebrity craze, then an interest in the EPL, etc.

The problem is soccer isn't growing among the youth that are participating, quite the opposite Redirect Notice

 

[LeHab]

Youth soccer business two years ago = 5 billion.

IOW, we can tell from where further growth will come.

I'm going to be very skeptical about the ability of the NHL to truly grow until its owners actually invest in programs that try to reach more youth than they currently see. Some of that is the nature of the sport, most of that is the nature of the owners.

MLS has an interesting way of marketing Soccer via Soccer United Marketing

Garber explains SUM's role within MLS, U.S. Soccer

Does NHL have something similar?

 

[Hasbro]

Not likely. We've been hearing this garbage for over 40 years, when Pele came to play with the Cosmos. It's the same dog and pony show the MLS would like you to believe

It would be better marketing for US Soccer shills to drop their vainglorious predictions of overtaking any other sport and concentrate on their positives.

 

[Hasbro]

Rapids did build a Soccer Specific Stadium under Kroenke. I think.

All the other Denver facilities are downtown on I-25 (In addition to the University of Denver's arena), The Rapids stadium is in Commerce City which is pretty much an oil refinery with a city council. Its location is pretty instructive on soccer's standing in the sports food chain.

 

[Brodie]

The problem is soccer isn't growing among the youth that are participating, quite the opposite Redirect Notice

As the article notes, this is part of a general trend.

At the end of the day, when concussion stuff is fully actualized by all stakeholders, I think basketball will emerge as the preeminent sport in America. It has all the advantages of soccer with way higher buy in. So it doesn't surprise me that it's growing. Baseball is also concussion immune. I already know I will only let my future kids do baseball/softball, basketball, and crew (my fiance was a collegiate rower, so it's a family thing) for concussion reasons.

 

[frivolousz21]

What would MLS revenue growth be taking out expansion fees while still counting actual revenue from new markets?

I work in operations at the Enterprise center in STL.

Nothing touches the insane money spent on blues games.

Not even when Drake, Panic at the disco, or a sold out high profule College basketball game touches the tie tire fire left after every blues game.


NHL fans seemingly are truly loaded with money.

In 15 years naybe MLS will bring in 2 billion in yearly revenue.


The NHL will probably be taking in 7.5 billion at the very least.

Probably closer to 9 billion.


MLS will never see economic growth because it's a minor league.

How many soccer players in the top 500 skilled in the world in their PRIME play in the MLS?


That will always be the Achilles Heal.

If the NHL really wanted to grow.

They would reinvest a lot of resources in getting blacks and latins grassroots going.

We have quite a few black guys who come to work at the rink and take in hockey for the first time in their life and are blown the $##@ away that this was in their backyard and they ignored it because it's "a white boy game".

 

[eddygee]

What would MLS revenue growth be taking out expansion fees while still counting actual revenue from new markets?

I work in operations at the Enterprise center in STL.

Nothing touches the insane money spent on blues games.

Not even when Drake, Panic at the disco, or a sold out high profule College basketball game touches the tie tire fire left after every blues game.


NHL fans seemingly are truly loaded with money.

In 15 years naybe MLS will bring in 2 billion in yearly revenue.


The NHL will probably be taking in 7.5 billion at the very least.

Probably closer to 9 billion.


MLS will never see economic growth because it's a minor league.

How many soccer players in the top 500 skilled in the world in their PRIME play in the MLS?


That will always be the Achilles Heal.

If the NHL really wanted to grow.

They would reinvest a lot of resources in getting blacks and latins grassroots going.

We have quite a few black guys who come to work at the rink and take in hockey for the first time in their life and are blown the $##@ away that this was in their backyard and they ignored it because it's "a white boy game".

In 15 years naybe MLS will bring in 2 billion in yearly revenue.


The NHL will probably be taking in 7.5 billion at the very least.

Probably closer to 9 billion.

I'm lost here MLS is basically already a 1 billion dollar league NHL AT 4.7 billion is basically a 5 billion dollar league. One league the NHL is the mature league that means in this case for NHL newer streams of significant revenues are close to being maxed out. I don't see how it will take MLS 15 yrs to get another 1 billion and have 2 billion in revenue, but NHL is going to increase league wide revenues by 50%. Where is all this new found money and interest going to come from to generate that kind of growth in the next 15 yrs? The next US TV deal could generate a additional $200-300 mil a yr for NHL. NHL just signed that gambling deal, not sure how much that is or how long but lets say its $100m so thats $300-400 mil yr additional revenue. That gets NHL to about 5.5 billion a yr in revenue. Where is the additional billions coming from? Will the Canadian TV deal triple? Will the existing US hockey markets go hockey mad? Serious question.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Maybe it's because I'm a CFL fan, but I see and appreciate value in being a small, successful league. I don't care that no one in the states watches, or that some Canadians don't like it. I enjoy watching it, and most teams are successful.

Just because you are not the NFL, raking in all the money in the world doesn't mean you can't be a minor success.

 

[Bookie21]

I work in operations at the Enterprise center in STL.
Nothing touches the insane money spent on blues games.
Not even when Drake, Panic at the disco, or a sold out high profule College basketball game touches the tie tire fire left after every blues game.
NHL fans seemingly are truly loaded with money.

I'm in Las Vegas a fair amount, and had a chat with an exec with MGM regarding Knights games. He basically echoed what you are saying. The demographics of an NHL fan are exactly why they wanted in to the hockey business so bad. The amount of money spent at Knights games on booze and food is astronomical. Music concerts and college basketball, which is also played at TMobile just pale in comparison in money spent at the arena compared to hockey. I didn't realize the demographic of a hockey fan was sooo affluent

 

[PCSPounder]

I liked Donovan much more as a player but he lost me with this one. It's sort of comment that you read and cringe. It would've come off alot better if he would've claimed MLS will be smack dab in the middle of the the top US leagues or that it's undoubtedly a Big 5 now instead of Big 4 but he reached a tad too far here.

It's a fair cringe.

I just wish we would cringe that much every time the Super Bowl comes on and the NFL claims "HALF THE WORLD WILL SEE THIS GAME" when the game is on overnight in Europe and the ratings pretty much don't exist.

Donovan is being, well (top picture in the linked article)... Remembering fondly the USMNT's 2002 Armani-esque photoshoot | SIDELINE

(I know for a fact that this popped up in a tifo or two.)

...but I'm tired of apologizing for soccer's salesmen when I can find baseballers and pointyballers with free reign. OTOH, hockey has to do better than putting Connor McDavid in an ad with his lines literally on a piece of paper in his hand.

 

[Reality Check]

"Young people don't watch much baseball. American football [NFL] also has issues with security and health. Basketball [NBA] is in a good phase, but MLS is really growing. In five, 10, 15 years, I believe we will be the third, second or first sport in the country.”

MLS closing in on NFL, NBA, MLB - Donovan

I've heard the same about the NHL, on this very forum, for years now.

Neither will happen as long as I live and I have at least another 40-50+ years to go.

 

[robertmac43]

I have zero problem with people disliking soccer. But it's not going away loves.....

Great post, I agree 100%.

It's only going to gain traction as more expansion teams are added and the hype builds towards the 2026 World Cup. Going to be a big increase in fans over the next decade or so.

 

[Hasbro]

Maybe the MLS should focus on catching up with other soccer leagues.

Or beating Trinidad....

 

[garbageteam]

^That's the US soccer team, not MLS.

I've followed this league since TFC entered in 2007. It has made massive strides in the 12 years since, you can't even overstate it. I think people who don't follow it still think it's minor league, and it absolutely still is compared to the top four Euro leagues - but the global soccer landscape is huge. MLS was David Beckham and 400 nobodies in 2007 practically. It routinely would be embarrassed in any comparison to another league regionally - on the pitch, on the pocket books and on any name recognition basis.

Today it boasts players and a tiny handful of teams where on paper if not yet on results, can hang with the best in the Mexican and Brazilian premier leagues, which in turn could probably be English Championship quality teams. There are more than several players in the league who'd be a legitimate part of the starting eleven on teams in leagues ranked way higher than MLS, and there has been two players who had played and developed in the league last season, and this season now playing in the Premier League & Bundesliga (Almiron & Davies).

The MLS is not a joke - what is is Landon's complete delusion that it would overtake the Big 4. It won't (in my lifetime anyway). What it really needs to do is cultivate more Atlanta Uniteds, Seattle Sounders and Toronto FCs (of two seasons ago, anyway), and less NE Revolution and Colorado Rapids - both on and off the pitch - to generate some more interest in its existing teams, rather than focus so much on getting new expansion teams (but, like the NHL... that expansion money is hard to resist).

 

[eddygee]

Great post, I agree 100%.

It's only going to gain traction as more expansion teams are added and the hype builds towards the 2026 World Cup. Going to be a big increase in fans over the next decade or so.

That was my whole point from the first page when asked how I thought MLS could go from $90m to $300m or more per yr in their next US TV deal while "only" thinking NHL would get $450-500m per yr. Networks will pay to hype the next big thing especially if they can benefit off it. There hasn't been a real big soccer thing to hype fully in this country since the 94 World Cup that brought us........MLS

You don't hear people talking and posting about Major League Lacorsse like this on the NBA or MLB forums do we?

 

[eddygee]

^That's the US soccer team, not MLS.

I've followed this league since TFC entered in 2007. It has made massive strides in the 12 years since, you can't even overstate it. I think people who don't follow it still think it's minor league, and it absolutely still is compared to the top four Euro leagues - but the global soccer landscape is huge. MLS was David Beckham and 400 nobodies in 2007 practically. It routinely would be embarrassed in any comparison to another league regionally - on the pitch, on the pocket books and on any name recognition basis.

Today it boasts players and a tiny handful of teams where on paper if not yet on results, can hang with the best in the Mexican and Brazilian premier leagues, which in turn could probably be English Championship quality teams. There are more than several players in the league who'd be a legitimate part of the starting eleven on teams in leagues ranked way higher than MLS, and there has been two players who had played and developed in the league last season, and this season now playing in the Premier League & Bundesliga (Almiron & Davies).

The MLS is not a joke - what is is Landon's complete delusion that it would overtake the Big 4. It won't (in my lifetime anyway). What it really needs to do is cultivate more Atlanta Uniteds, Seattle Sounders and Toronto FCs (of two seasons ago, anyway), and less NE Revolution and Colorado Rapids - both on and off the pitch - to generate some more interest in its existing teams, rather than focus so much on getting new expansion teams (but, like the NHL... that expansion money is hard to resist).

You hit the nail on the head I started following in 2005 you can tell the people who've done their homework on the league vs the ones who are just repeating old stereotypes. What you said about the newer teams versus the original 96er teams is why the league started to take off and will keep doing it. Majority of the new teams take off in their markets see Orlando/ Seattle/Toronto/Portland/Atlanta/ and soon to be Cincinnati and Nashville. The problem with the older teams outside of a few strong brands like the Galaxy is, those other teams entered the league in a era when the league was unquestionable minor league on the field and off the field. It's been hard for folks in those markets to suddenly turn around and be like oh we're finally big time now so oh I'm suppose to pay attention?

The new markets like Atlanta have entered a league operating at a Major League level on the field and off. People in those markets see it as a "big deal". With team 24 Cincinnati entering the league the start of this year in March there are 8 more teams to go for MLS to reach it's stated goal of 32 teams. Soon a majority of the 32 markets the overwhelming majority will be considered Major/big things in their markets until the other small time teams in those markets can "wake up" those markets.

So to those who say yeah yeah been hearing that since x amount of years. Stop hearing, listen and see. If you haven't noticed every cpl of yrs there is a hot new MLS team ppl are talking about. First it was Seattle breaking records showing America how to do soccer and getting 30-50k to show up to games regularly, now it's Atlanta upping the ante off of what Seattle showed and said we can get 60-70k to show up to games regularly. That type of thing has been infectious for the league and future markets see it and want to emulate it; where as the original teams putting 10k in a 50-70k stadium inspired and pumped up no one.

 

[robertmac43]

You don't hear people talking and posting about Major League Lacorsse like this on the NBA or MLB forums do we?

I feel like no matter how Soccer does in the NA there will always be a crowd of people who are anti-Footie. Especially in the Hockey fan community.

 

[eddygee]

I feel like no matter how Soccer does in the NA there will always be a crowd of people who are anti-Footie. Especially in the Hockey fan community.

I've noticed that and don't get it. It's not like the two sports are in competition TV wise. It's like some Hockey Fans feel that they are the gate keepers and that MLS or soccer will take away it's shine or attention. I get the angst with the NBA as we overlap a good bit with them for eyeballs. Never understood the MLS/Soccer hate.