In fairness, I landed on 12 games as a random number. It will come down to his impact and their needs.
For the NHL teams, it is more about managing when they turn UFA. That is the main priority. So, you have to circle the 40 game mark as the key indicator. IMO, if they do need Ritchie for more than 10 games, it is not a guarantee they keep him for the entire season specifically because they likely would prefer him not reach 40 games. This is all assuming they only need him until LTIR players return to the roster and they can breathe a bit easier.
I agree if players return before he reaches the 10 game mark he will be returned. But, if those players don’t return and he is playing well, I don’t see them sending him back to protect his ELC. I see them keeping the player until December and then make a decision then on where they want him to play in the 2nd half of the season. If they feel he is now a pro, they keep him. If they feel he’d benefit from more time in Junior, they will send him to Team Canada and then back to Oshawa.
Ultimately, I agree that it is much more likely that enough players return to allow them to reassign to Oshawa later this month.