Ontario Reign 21-22 : I'm only happy when it Reigns

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I'd anticipate some of the older prospects move as early as this deadline, for better or for worse. As you say a guy like JAD loses waiver eligibility after this year, and plenty are soon to follow; at some point, it's not so much that they lose value themselves as much as it is teams will realize the Kings have 15 f***ing extra guys that they can thrift store out of us for pennies on the dollar because we need to.

There's a fine line between identifying roster holes to fill and losing value; right now we KNOW we need LHD and future goaltending help and that's about it; we have to cash some of the redundancies to fill those holes and maybe even for further picks moving forward if they're not going to be players.

For me--I think Thomas and Fagemo stick long term. I think and hope Grundstrom stays as a depth forward. I think JAD's ticket was punched when he was sent down this year, unfortunately, especially with Lizotte going HAM. Lemieux stays. I think Madden and Andersson go, just unfortunate victims of the Kings self-inflicted numbers game.

Of the big guys, I think Byfield stays, one of Turcotte/Vilardi stays. I think Kupari is a goner. Personally I view the org's handling of JAD and Vilardi as signs they're gone.

Thomas and Fagemo are tough for me, I just can't get a read on them. Thomas has been out of course. Fagemo's numbers are middling but he always looks a lot better than his numbers indicate when I see him.

It's why I think we should be seeing a revolving door of prospects coming up and getting looks. I would have traded Durzi without a second thought if he never got a look, he was below average in the A defensively. He looks light years better in the NHL in his own end and now he's looking like a keeper. I also think Kupari is on the way out. Solid player, great speed, but he's not standing out. Give someone else an extended look to see how they react.
 
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I’ve viewed the following as untouable
Byfield
Clarke
Kaliyev
Turcotte

IMHO, Our trading pool is the following
Vilardi
Kupari
JAD
Andersson
Madden
Grundstrom
Moverare
Fagemo
Moore - will be a hot name as his play has been outstanding and he’s also a guy that’ll probably wear a letter one day
Walker - not sure you can trade him atm

This is very close to my list
I’ve viewed the following as untouchable
Byfield
Clarke
Farber
Kaliyev

Trading pool for overpayment only
Turcotte
Chromiak
Vilardi
Kupari
Pinelli
Spence
Grans

Our trading pool is the following

JAD
Andersson
Madden
Grundstrom
Moverare
Fagemo
 
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But a some point we will need to package up several prospects before they lose all value. We can’t possibly bring them all through so we absolutely should make a meaningful deal which would ideally be before next season starts. Yes we need to develop players but once we know where the holes will be in the system we need to start making trades whilst we can do so from a position of strength.
Our only holes are the talent in our top 6, a physical bottom sixer to go with Lemieux, and a physical, SAH defensman. We cover those holes and we're in contention.
 
Kupari has not shown me anything. I’m watching him very closely and there is almost no time that I think he’s anything but a fill in AHL guy.

I view him similarly to Trevor Moore right now, with just very little confidence. Hopefully as he matures and gets stronger he can start playing with more confidence and model his game after Kempe.
 
I view him similarly to Trevor Moore right now, with just very little confidence. Hopefully as he matures and gets stronger he can start playing with more confidence and model his game after Kempe.
Not sure how you view Kupari and Moore the same? Moore has literally been one of our best players, even when he wasn’t scoring the other facets of his game still there.
 
Not sure how you view Kupari and Moore the same? Moore has literally been one of our best players, even when he wasn’t scoring the other facets of his game still there.

Moore has been one of our best players for the past couple weeks but definitely not for the whole season. I'm just saying they play similar styles, even though Moore's significantly more effective.
 
I'd anticipate some of the older prospects move as early as this deadline, for better or for worse. As you say a guy like JAD loses waiver eligibility after this year, and plenty are soon to follow; at some point, it's not so much that they lose value themselves as much as it is teams will realize the Kings have 15 f***ing extra guys that they can thrift store out of us for pennies on the dollar because we need to.

There's a fine line between identifying roster holes to fill and losing value; right now we KNOW we need LHD and future goaltending help and that's about it; we have to cash some of the redundancies to fill those holes and maybe even for further picks moving forward if they're not going to be players.

For me--I think Thomas and Fagemo stick long term. I think and hope Grundstrom stays as a depth forward. I think JAD's ticket was punched when he was sent down this year, unfortunately, especially with Lizotte going HAM. Lemieux stays. I think Madden and Andersson go, just unfortunate victims of the Kings self-inflicted numbers game.

Of the big guys, I think Byfield stays, one of Turcotte/Vilardi stays. I think Kupari is a goner. Personally I view the org's handling of JAD and Vilardi as signs they're gone.
That's too bad since Vilardi is talented. He's got very deceptive vision, as TM said. I think he should stay, does that mean he won't? No. Keep Byfield, Turc, and Vilardi. I like Kaliyev, I think he's shown he can play. I don't see a reason in trading the other guys in Madden, well JAD I can see, but Madden? He's promising. I don't like the idea of trading Kupari, I think he could be another Kempe, but with more skill. I think you deal, if you have to, JAD, Andersson. Maybe dangle Kupari out there, see if we can get some physical depth. If not, keep him.
 
Dont' get me wrong I'm not personally writing off Vilardi, I'm just trying to read the tea leaves. I want him to stay.

Exactly, he has tools that just aren't teachable. I think what happened is he overcame all those obstacles, experienced some success, then though "Finally, I'm there" and let up a bit. I think he'll get it back.

Our prospects aren't coming along a quickly as we hoped overall, but has anyone else noticed that far fewer top picks have come into the league and made immediate impacts? It's a league-wide trend. The last #1 pick that did was Dahlin, and before that it was Matthews. Before Matthews, almost every #1 took off right away. And it's not just the 1OA, it seems to be down the draft. There are only a handful of guys in the last 3 drafts who have made a sizeable impact. I'd blame it on the pandemic but it goes back to around 2017 with a few exceptions.

Not sure what is going on, really.
 
Exactly, he has tools that just aren't teachable. I think what happened is he overcame all those obstacles, experienced some success, then though "Finally, I'm there" and let up a bit. I think he'll get it back.

Our prospects aren't coming along a quickly as we hoped overall, but has anyone else noticed that far fewer top picks have come into the league and made immediate impacts? It's a league-wide trend. The last #1 pick that did was Dahlin, and before that it was Matthews. Before Matthews, almost every #1 took off right away. And it's not just the 1OA, it seems to be down the draft. There are only a handful of guys in the last 3 drafts who have made a sizeable impact. I'd blame it on the pandemic but it goes back to around 2017 with a few exceptions.

Not sure what is going on, really.


I am watching all Reign games this season and for the last 5-6 games Vilardi looks like totally different player to me (in a good way).
His skating is better and he is able to handle longer shifts, which always was a problem for him.
If Kings traded him before these 5-6 games I would not care, but not anymore.
 
I am watching all Reign games this season and for the last 5-6 games Vilardi looks like totally different player to me (in a good way).
His skating is better and he is able to handle longer shifts, which always was a problem for him.
If Kings traded him before these 5-6 games I would not care, but not anymore.

It seems that Gabe's harshest critic is himself. If you remember his struggles last season, when he started actually scoring at the end of the season, he didn't even seem happy about it. More like it's about time I'm putting some points up. I really hope they stick him for an extended spell on Byfield's wing (for as long as QB stays in Ontario) in both Ontario and LA. They would seem to complement each other's games.
 
Best thing for Vilardi and the organization is to continue scoring in the AHL and keep his value somewhat high. Work with a power skating coach this summer and come in next year ready to steal a spot. Confidence is key for him, seems more mental at this point, tools (- skating) is all there.
 
Kupari has not shown me anything. I’m watching him very closely and there is almost no time that I think he’s anything but a fill in AHL guy.
No Kupari's legit, he just needs more time to get used to the NHL. It's a tough league, just like Todd said. You gotta really work at getting better to play in this league. I think Kupari could be a top 6 talent.
 
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The one thing Kupari is doing pretty well is being solid in his own zone, not a lot of dangerous chances against. The dangerous chances for are only slightly lower, though, so he's not creating a whole lot.

PuckIQ has a neat stat they track called dangerous fenwick, which I call the eye test stat. It takes shot location, distance, and type, and uses an algorithm to assign shots a "danger" value. It can't take everything into account, like screens and deflections, but more often than not a shot from the middle of the slot is going to be more dangerous than one from the point. DFF% counts DF for vs DF against, similar to corsi, and gives a good indicator of creating vs allowing dangerous chances. It kind of quantifies when you view a player and think 'they didn't score, but they created a lot of dangerous chances, while the other team didn't do much of anything'.

Kupari is near the bottom of this, but nothing terrible. He's in what I call the Nick Shore zone, where nothing really good or bad seems to happen on the ice when he's out there. Of the young guys, Kaliyev is the highest regular which makes sense as they are overpowering other bottom lines. Turcotte has only played a few games and is slightly more protected more than the other guys but he's already passed Kaliyev. It tells you that even though he has no points yet he's doing the correct things. The lowest on the team is Tynan, who was obviously over his head. Tkachev and Vilardi are right behind him because of their terrible start to the season.

For some context, the top guys on the team are players like Iafallo, Arvidsson, and Danault, who create far more than they concede against top competition. Lemieux is in the 2nd tier, but he does it against much weaker competition. That line really demolishes other bottom lines.
 
Kupari is near the bottom of this, but nothing terrible. He's in what I call the Nick Shore zone, where nothing really good or bad seems to happen on the ice when he's out there. Of the young guys, Kaliyev is the highest regular which makes sense as they are overpowering other bottom lines. Turcotte has only played a few games and is slightly more protected more than the other guys but he's already passed Kaliyev. It tells you that even though he has no points yet he's doing the correct things. The lowest on the team is Tynan, who was obviously over his head. Tkachev and Vilardi are right behind him because of their terrible start to the season.

For some context, the top guys on the team are players like Iafallo, Arvidsson, and Danault, who create far more than they concede against top competition. Lemieux is in the 2nd tier, but he does it against much weaker competition. That line really demolishes other bottom lines.
The "Nick Shore zone", it's like the friend zone, but even more boring.
 
Love that Faber made the team. I wonder how much ice time he and Sanderson will get.
 
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