Ontario Reign 20-21 part II Growing Pains

[Herby]

Providing context isn't giving free passes, though.






Holy f***ing cherry picked dishonesty batman.

You were giving me an absolute MOUNTAIN of bullshit for pointing out Turcotte had 19 points in 15 games when healthy so you doing the exact opposite and literally jumping over stretches of good play so you can point out the bad is a really, really bad look and not going to help you pretend you're having 'good faith discussion' about certain prospects.

I'm not being dishonest, I posted his statistics from every game he has played in the Big Ten and AHL over the last 2 years, exactly how is that dishonest? I'm sorry I don't really care about statistics he put up vs. Merrimack, Omaha-Nebraska and ASU. How many future pros are playing on any of those squads?

You as usual just want to make excuse after excuse when a Kings prospect struggles. If he was injured and that is why he did dick in the Big Ten last year why was he able to light up ASU for a 5 point weekend during the conference stretch while being to injured to do anything vs. conference foes? Last year it was injury, the coach and teammates, I guess this season with Wisconsin winning the Big 10 has killed 2 of those excuses so we are doubling down on the injury one rather than wondering why he scored once in conference play.

Instead of making excuse after excuse could it just be possible that maybe, just maybe he doesn't have nearly the offensive ceiling that you thought? Is that a possibility at all? Why has he been unable to produce thus far in the AHL? When does Turcotte produce like a top 5 pick? His D+3 year? I'm guessing another excuse incoming.

And you want to address the rest of the post, why is it fair to evaluate and hype our prospects when they do well but not when they struggle? Should we discredit what Fagemo is doing in the AHL because it's "jumping to conclusions"

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'm not being dishonest, I posted his statistics from every game he has played in the Big Ten and AHL over the last 2 years, exactly how is that dishonest? I'm sorry I don't really care about statistics he put up vs. Merrimack, Omaha-Nebraska and ASU. How many future pros are playing on any of those squads?

You as usual just want to make excuse after excuse when a Kings prospect struggles. If he was injured and that is why he did dick in the Big Ten last year why was he able to light up ASU for a 5 point weekend during the conference stretch while being to injured to do anything vs. conference foes?

Instead of making excuse after excuse could it just be possible that maybe, just maybe he doesn't have nearly the offensive ceiling that you thought? Why has he been unable to produce thus far in the AHL? When does Turcotte produce like a top 5 pick? His D+3 year? I'm guessing another excuse incoming.

And you want to address the rest of the post, why is it fair to evaluate and hype our prospects when they do well but not when they struggle? Should we discredit what Fagemo is doing in the AHL because it's "jumping to conclusions"

He very well might not! I'm just not as excited as you to throw dirt on his casket after literally 6 AHL games.

I'm not going to discredit what Fagemo is doing because there's no discrepancy in what he's been doing from league to league. In Turcotte's case, he's produced at every level, except 6 pro games. It's early. That's all. It's not an excuse, it's context and I'm not as weirdly angry about this prospect as you are. And to me, everyone gets 20 games.

To me, this feels like how people were trashing him in the previous year's WJC only to watch him blow up this year's WJC. I get the feeling he'll go through some shit this year; that's okay, he's 19 in a pro league. Doesn't mean he's immune from criticism, just means I'm not as hard on the bust train as you are.

 

[King'sPawn]

And you want to address the rest of the post, why is it fair to evaluate and hype our prospects when they do well but not when they struggle? Should we discredit what Fagemo is doing in the AHL because it's "jumping to conclusions"

It is jumping to conclusions, yes.

And it's a developmental league. Not an evaluation league.

We praise the performance of prospects and how they grow. Like with Vilardi, we were excited with how he controlled the play and looked like he fit in despite missing a year and a half of hockey.

Byfield is playing in this league on a team chock full of rookies with a rookie coach, implementing a new system.

This is the best developmental opportunity for someone like Byfield. But it's also an uphill climb at the moment.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It is jumping to conclusions, yes.

And it's a developmental league. Not an evaluation league.

We praise the performance of prospects and how they grow. Like with Vilardi, we were excited with how he controlled the play and looked like he fit in despite missing a year and a half of hockey.

Byfield is playing in this league on a team chock full of rookies with a rookie coach, implementing a new system.

This is the best developmental opportunity for someone like Byfield. But it's also an uphill climb at the moment.

And that's the thing--these guys wouldn't even be in the AHL on a normal year.

Herby himself points out--accidentally, of course, because he doesn't believe in the age curve at all--that the prospects that are doing well and getting praise are 20 and 21 years old and/or 2+ year pros. That's a pretty normal pro development curve.

The ones folks inexplicably want to shit on, notably Byfield, Kaliyev, Turcotte, are 'first year' pros (actually Byfield and Kaliyev would still get claimed by their junior teams) dealing with all sorts of first year pro issues in addition to unique covid year circumstances. Pointing those out in combination doesn't make you a homer. Normalize understanding circumstance and nuance and discussions will be a LOT easier.

Edit: and just going to copy and paste from the Byfield thread re: notes on trajectories:

even using Draisaitl as a comparison, which is a pretty good one--
wasn't in the nhl at 18.
9 points at 19. BUST.
51 points at 20. Okay this guy can be a player.
77 and 70 points at 21 and 22--alright we've got a legit star on our hands.
105, 110, 114 (pace) points ever since.

 

[Herby]

He very well might not! I'm just not as excited as you to throw dirt on his casket after literally 6 AHL games.

I'm not going to discredit what Fagemo is doing because there's no discrepancy in what he's been doing from league to league. In Turcotte's case, he's produced at every level, except 6 pro games. It's early. That's all. It's not an excuse, it's context and I'm not as weirdly angry about this prospect as you are. And to me, everyone gets 20 games.

To me, this feels like how people were trashing him in the previous year's WJC only to watch him blow up this year's WJC. I get the feeling he'll go through some shit this year; that's okay, he's 19 in a pro league. Doesn't mean he's immune from criticism, just means I'm not as hard on the bust train as you are.

The last sentence is just so pathetic and embarrassing you should know better. Bust train? Bust train?

All I said was, I think he has been a disappointment from where he was drafted, if you take a forward in the top 5 he should be expected to be a 1st line player, he never looked like a future 1C at all last year in college and now he has yet to score in the AHL. It just means that he probably isn't going to be a 1st liner, and thus isn't going to live up to his draft position. But if you think that means he is a bust, so be it, when I think bust I think Colten Teubert, when I think big disappointment I think Sam Bennett. I think he is going to be way better than those players. But it's time to look at his production and stop making excuses for it.

He's produced everywhere? Where is everywhere, the NTDP? I don't know, I guess everyone I know who follows UW who universally thought he was a disappointment last year based on expectations don't know what they are talking about. He hasn't scored in 6 AHL games, so where is everywhere?

I've said numerous times that his motor and skill set make him a future NHL'er (probably a 2nd liner, maybe 3rd) but apparently thinking he doesn't have the offensive skill-set to be a scorer in the NHL like the Kings projected 2 years ago makes me put him on the "bust train".

A player can be a disappointment based on draft position and still be an effective NHL'er. It just means they should have been taken later in the draft. The Kings have had a lot of players that have been homeruns (like the ones listed), I'm just curious why we can celebrate the homeruns but we have to ignore the ones who have struggled.

 

[Herby]

And that's the thing--these guys wouldn't even be in the AHL on a normal year.

Herby himself points out--accidentally, of course, because he doesn't believe in the age curve at all--that the prospects that are doing well and getting praise are 20 and 21 years old and/or 2+ year pros. That's a pretty normal pro development curve.

The ones folks inexplicably want to shit on, notably Byfield, Kaliyev, Turcotte, are 'first year' pros (actually Byfield and Kaliyev would still get claimed by their junior teams) dealing with all sorts of first year pro issues in addition to unique covid year circumstances. Pointing those out in combination doesn't make you a homer. Normalize understanding circumstance and nuance and discussions will be a LOT easier.

Edit: and just going to copy and paste from the Byfield thread re: notes on trajectories:

even using Draisaitl as a comparison, which is a pretty good one--
wasn't in the nhl at 18.
9 points at 19. BUST.
51 points at 20. Okay this guy can be a player.
77 and 70 points at 21 and 22--alright we've got a legit star on our hands.
105, 110, 114 (pace) points ever since.

If Alex Turcotte puts up 9 points in 19 games in the NHL this season or 51 points next season I will be the first one here to say I was wrong. Save this, quote me on it, whatever you want.

Leon Draisaitl also completely dominated the WHL in his D+1 year. I am not expecting anyone to step into the NHL and dominate as 18 year olds, only the rarest of rare do that (Matthews, Stutzle etc). Even 19 year olds, I didn't expect Turcotte to play in the NHL this year and thought putting him in the AHL was moronic based on historical evidence. I was screaming for him to return to Wisconsin, so how was I expecting domination at the pro level when I wanted him to return to college? I am looking for progression and domination at the level they are playing at, in the case of Alex Turcotte there was no domination in his D+1 year as a freshman, there were long stretches of little offensive production and significant struggles in the defensive zone and with the size and physicality of his opposition. That's ok though, let him go back and give it another kick at the can, plenty of kids have struggled as freshman and then found their groove as sophomores. Let him go back, tell him to live in the weight room at UW and gain 10-15 pounds, hopefully really dominate and then hopefully bring him to Ontario late in the year for their playoff push (Werenski after soph year) or even as a re-enforcement for a Kings playoff team (McAvoy after soph year). But no, the Kings inexplicably promote him to pro hockey despite his struggles in college last season to play against even bigger and more physical opponents and now he has yet to score in 6 pro games. You think for some reason I have an irrational hatred of Turcotte even though I said numerous times on this board leading up to and after that pick that he was my #3 guy and the guy I really wanted the Kings to pick (Most people wanted Byram). I'm just going off of what I saw watching him play a ton last year, he had a disappointing year and I just don't get why that is so hard to accept for some here, it's not like this is some bizarre opinion I share, ask anyone who follows UW hockey and they will share the same sentiment, both he and Caufield struggled and didn't live yup to hype last year. And then it was compounded by Blake's poor decision following the year.

 

[King'sPawn]

Wisconsin was such a mess last year, and in my opinion was centered around the darling of Cole Caufield. I was glad Turcotte left.

 

[Herby]

It is jumping to conclusions, yes.

And it's a developmental league. Not an evaluation league.

We praise the performance of prospects and how they grow. Like with Vilardi, we were excited with how he controlled the play and looked like he fit in despite missing a year and a half of hockey.

Byfield is playing in this league on a team chock full of rookies with a rookie coach, implementing a new system.

This is the best developmental opportunity for someone like Byfield. But it's also an uphill climb at the moment.

If you have noticed I am not criticizing Byfield much at all. I have watched just about every one of those games and while there are some issues (motor, using size) I don't really have any issues with him, someone who did what he did in the OHL as a draft eligible coupled with his size make him an elite elite prospect. I think you would hope for a little bit more production and he doesn't completely deserve a free pass but I think he has shown enough in the eye test where you can say "yeah he projects as a #1C in the NHL" that is something that the eye-test watching Turcotte last year didn't show, that is the difference.

I would actually like him to be up with the Kings if he is forced to be sent back if the OHL returns, even if he isn't going to play every game.. I don't think returning him to the OHL, a league he has already dominated is good for his development. He absolutely should be up in the NHL next year and better off to get any culture or on ice shocks out of the way this season

 

[BigKing]

I was a "stay in school" guy but I do wonder if Blake and Co. act differently with the truncated AHL season. The choice was made though so all we can hope is that he stays healthy the rest of the way and starts to produce.

As for the Reign and our prospects down there as a whole, it has obviously been disappointing so far but we've got two guys in Kaliyev and Byfield that aren't supposed to even be there and then Turcotte who has been hurt. Madden looked amazing in pre-season and the first few games and then slumped. It will happen with so many first year pros. It is no surprise that Fagemo and Kupari have been the consistent guys since they already have pro experience but, hell, Kupari was not good in Ontario last year but looks much better after tearing an ACL and being out for a long time.

So I'm preaching not to freak out relative to individual production or even the Reign's record. With that said, I still believe firmly in the following:

- The Kings are soft at the NHL and AHL levels. Charmin soft. Turcotte is really going to need to pan out and stay healthy and hopefully become a leader of men because there is not much fire in these guys.

- For the 100th time...making future rosters full of every 1st and 2nd round draft pick is silly and stupid. Many of these guys won't make it so having the #1 rated prospect pool doesn't mean the future is set. I've provided the lists in the past where the Kings were ranked Top 5 for a few years by HF due to guys like Hickey, Bernier, Purcell, Teubert etc. These guys weren't just mentioned as part of the prospect pool: they were why the Kings were ranked that high. Point is that Blake is extremely close to having to earn his paycheck by making decisions on who is part of the Kings future and who will be used to obtain proven talent. This is where things get really interesting.

 

[Herby]

Wisconsin was such a mess last year, and in my opinion was centered around the darling of Cole Caufield. I was glad Turcotte left.

Historically 1st rounders who play two years do better in pro hockey than guys who play one, that is what concerns me here. I am not against guys leaving after one-year, Jack Eichel had nothing left to prove, Kyle Connor had nothing left to prove. I think of what Werenski and Toews have said, where they had offers to leave after their freshman years and staying was the best decision they ever made and that they wouldn't be the players they are today had they gone pro after their freshman year.

I think Turcotte would have gained a lot going forward from playing on this years UW team.

 

[kilowatt]

Historically 1st rounders who play two years do better in pro hockey than guys who play one, that is what concerns me here. I am not against guys leaving after one-year, Jack Eichel had nothing left to prove, Kyle Connor had nothing left to prove. I think of what Werenski and Toews have said, where they had offers to leave after their freshman years and staying was the best decision they ever made and that they wouldn't be the players they are today had they gone pro after their freshman year.

I think Turcotte would have gained a lot going forward from playing on this years UW team.

In retrospect, sure, but with the absolute disaster that was UW last year, it made sense. It just sucks that Turcotte signed his pro contract then all hell broke loose with COVID. I'm guessing the Kings would have left him in college for another season had they known what would happen. I think the plan was for Turcotte to finish the season in Ontario, then get a full camp, head off to the WJC, and be ready for a taste in the NHL afterward. Which isn't to say that Turcotte's special in any way, everyone had to deal with COVID and the ramifications therein, it just sucks that the timing worked out the way it did.

I think Turcotte will be fine though. I've said it many times, let's not worry about what happens this year. I'm just glad our players are getting to play hockey again in a (relatively) low-stress environment. I'm sure a lot of the games so far have just been about "winning the next period", making good passes, making good reads, etc. Ontario's defense and goaltending are so comically bad that there's not much hope in terms of winning games. Oh well!

 

[Eagle Fang]

Isn’t that what an evaluation league is for-to evaluate? I get what you are saying but at some point you want to see results too. This start is highly unexpected. It is a very atypical year granted tho. Don’t think anyone should just be given a free pass.

As is pertains to the prospects I agree with KP that the AHL is a development league more than an evaluation league. It's meant for players not ready for the NHL to go there and work on areas that need improvement.

After just 12 games I'm not sure what are the results you'd want to see. More wins? More points by players? I see people using stat lines and comparing them to other current NHL players. Well, so-and-so tore up the AHL at age 19 or 20 and our 18 and 19 yr old players aren't doing jack so...

Based on the idea that the AHL is for development I try to watch the games on that premise. For example, I shit on Byfield's play in the WJCs. He looked bad. In the AHL he's looked a lot better and a lot of the concerns I had about his game are slowly disappearing. He handles his own against men as an 18 year old. It doesn't bother me at the moment that he has only 1 goal / 6 assists in 12 games and is a -13.

 

[LAKings88]

As much as everyone says that results don’t matter, maybe not so much this year for sure, I think you want that team to have some success and a chance to play meaningful games. Evaluation/development is Symantecs.

I’m just saying, I doubt management is happy with the record or blowing it off. The talent is there. How long do we blame the pandemic, lack of quality vets, or goaltending?

The team hopefully can overcome this stretch.

 

[Herby]

In retrospect, sure, but with the absolute disaster that was UW last year, it made sense

They had a terrible year, no doubt. But if it were universally known that it was such a toxic situation you would have expected Edmonton and Montreal to pull their 1st rounders out of there too, right? But they didn't and both players have prospered this season. Arguably the two best players in college hockey.

It's just tough because like I mentioned, historically guys just do so much better in the NHL when they play the 2nd year of college. But some of this is team specific and teams like to have players under team control and value that more, even if the players development suffers.

Also, from some people I know who follow the program closer than me, Turcotte may have to quote Cardale Jones "Not wanted to play school anymore" , which may have tied the Kings hands a bit but ultimately he can't sign a contract if the offer isn't made. This actually is probably true because its almost unheard of for high end prospects to sign unless they are given that year right away, which basically makes the 3 year ELC 2. When the team comes to the player its usually "Ok, if I leave, sign me now and give me an NHL game so the year comes off". Turcotte only signed an ATO and his contract didn't start until this year, meaning the Kings probably had all the leverage. I just wish Blake as a former college player himself would have tried to stress the importance of atleast doing the 2nd year and growing both literally and figuratively as a player. It was a missed opportunity, one that I hope doesn't have long-term negative effects like it did with Casey Mittlestadt who's similar in many ways.

 

[Eagle Fang]

I would love to see who is passing judgement. I see people analyzing their play but nobody is passing judgement.

I guess we're seeing something different. I see people throwing out stat lines to evaluate how a player is doing.... after 12 games. I don't see a lot of "analyzing their play" going on.

 

[Eagle Fang]

As much as everyone says that results don’t matter, maybe not so much this year for sure, I think you want that team to have some success and a chance to play meaningful games. Evaluation/development is Symantecs.

I’m just saying, I doubt management is happy with the record or blowing it off. The talent is there. How long do we blame the pandemic, lack of quality vets, or goaltending?

The team hopefully can overcome this stretch.

I don't think any of us are happy with their record or expected it to be so bad. But as you said, the talent is there. Whether that translates to the next level, who knows. But for sure, anyone actually watching the games can see there's more going on than their wins and losses. I'd guess all but maybe 1 or 2 of their games so far, they've not been outplayed.

 

[King'sPawn]

They had a terrible year, no doubt. But if it were universally known that it was such a toxic situation you would have expected Edmonton and Montreal to pull their 1st rounders out of there too, right? But they didn't and both players have prospered this season. Arguably the two best players in college hockey.

It's just tough because like I mentioned, historically guys just do so much better in the NHL when they play the 2nd year of college. But some of this is team specific and teams like to have players under team control and value that more, even if the players development suffers.

Also, from some people I know who follow the program closer than me, Turcotte may have to quote Cardale Jones "Not wanted to play school anymore" , which may have tied the Kings hands a bit but ultimately he can't sign a contract if the offer isn't made. This actually is probably true because its almost unheard of for high end prospects to sign unless they are given that year right away, which basically makes the 3 year ELC 2. When the team comes to the player its usually "Ok, if I leave, sign me now and give me an NHL game so the year comes off". Turcotte only signed an ATO and his contract didn't start until this year, meaning the Kings probably had all the leverage. I just wish Blake as a former college player himself would have tried to stress the importance of atleast doing the 2nd year and growing both literally and figuratively as a player. It was a missed opportunity, one that I hope doesn't have long-term negative effects like it did with Casey Mittlestadt who's similar in many ways.

I'm not sure I agree with your premise.

I don't think Edmonton has a great track record of developing their prospects. I don't think their failure or refusal to get Holloway out of there is indicative of their judgment. For lack of a better word, I consider it failing upward.

I don't know if Montreal didn't offer Caufield the contract. Fir all I know they just honored Caufield wanting to stay where he was the star.

It's a great argument as far as why Turcotte should have stayed. I just understand why they wanted to get him out of there, and I'm not convinced Montreal and Edmonton's handling is the best defense.

 

[Eagle Fang]

It's interesting listen to the ONT pre-game with Nick and Darryl. They're talking about Strand and how he opened a lot of eyes with this play on the Kings. I know a lot of us thought Strand deserved to stay with LA.

This player who looked solid at the NHL level has looked liked shit with ONT... well not shit, but he's looked very average. Same with Clague.

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

The American Hockey League is a garbage league with few young Stars

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

How many prospects do the Oilers have that are legit NHL material?

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

Benson,Leonard Skinneryd and Lagesson

 

[Herby]

I'm not sure I agree with your premise.

I don't think Edmonton has a great track record of developing their prospects. I don't think their failure or refusal to get Holloway out of there is indicative of their judgment. For lack of a better word, I consider it failing upward.

I don't know if Montreal didn't offer Caufield the contract. Fir all I know they just honored Caufield wanting to stay where he was the star.

It's a great argument as far as why Turcotte should have stayed. I just understand why they wanted to get him out of there, and I'm not convinced Montreal and Edmonton's handling is the best defense.

My premise is that if Wisconsin were such a toxic situation why didn't more players leave and why are things better this year with the same coaching staff? Why have there been no rumblings about it being a bad situation other than on a message board? They more than likely just had a bad year, Caufield and Turcotte were expected to be impact players and they were not, especially at ES. Miller was not as good as he was the year before and they couldn't keep the puck out of their own net (sound familiar?). But it was just a bad year, just like BU had in 2014, North Dakota had in 2018, Michigan had in 2016. I think it was another reach made up excuse from certain people as to why a prized prospect didn't live up to expectation while playing there and why it was better to go against historical precedent and pull a player out of school early before he was ready to have him play minor league hockey.

I guess it just depends on what you think is the better development path for a 19 year old player who didn't really shine the year before. Plenty of people here think that it's riding the bus in the AHL while under guidance of the team. I just think that the past returns of similar players pretty clearly shows that returning for the 2nd year results in the player becoming a better long-term player at the NHL level, and I don't think it's very close to be honest. Maybe the Kings development system is just better than everyone else's and they will buck the trend, but it's a big gamble/risk to make on a player you spent a very high pick on. I want Alex Turcotte to be successful for the Kings, I don't necessarily think the Kings have made it as easy for him with the situation they have put him in this year by signing him, Turcotte was physically dominated a lot of nights in the defensive zone last year playing in the Big Ten and really needed to add 15 pounds or so to play the sandpiper Mike Richards type game the Kings expect him to, something that is harder to do when you are playing 60+ games a year and on the road a lot. A year of experience (hopefully dominating), playing in all situations against guys who aren't fully grown professionals is invaluable and the Kings caused him to miss out on that, and I still don't really know why. People can talk about box-score watching, or bad luck or whatever, but the facts are, scoreless in 6 games from a player who really struggled to do much offensively against good competition last year, confidence is an important thing for a young player, and the Kings are risking just crushing his if he has another down year offensively, which so far is happening.

I don't think the AHL is a good place for U-20 players to be honest, except in situations where it's European players who are going to struggle to see ice-time overseas and have their development stagnated because of it (Voynov, Kupari). If the Kings draft a college player this year in the 1st round I'm hopeful that the AHL is not under consideration for 21-22 season.

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

What a surprise Reign give up the first goal

 

[ru4reals]

Brutal coverage by Byfield in the front of the net. Wish he did a better job boxing out.

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

Who are the Kings going to lose to Seattle...Clague,Lias Andersson...Strand...Quick...