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Olympics 2026 qualification

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Opening day is upon us, time for some predictions:

Hungary 3-4 Kazakhstan
Slovakia 3-2 Austria

France 1-2 Ukraine (at least this fixture has the most upset potential here I reckon)
Latvia 4-0 Slovenia

Norway 6-1 Japan
Denmark 5-1 Great Britain (if I'm pessimistic I'm less likely to be disappointed!)
 
PanniniClaus said:
ugh.. Gudlevskis is the better option it would seem. I wouldn't trust Merzlikins in a big game.
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They're going to ride Gudlevskis. It was likely agreed upon with Merzlikins before the training camp that Silovs is going to be the 1st goalie so they did not even invite Elvis.

So now in an ironic twist we're left without any NHL goalies.

The 2nd goalie is Grigals.

For some reason, though, they've left one goalie spot open
 
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Namejs said:
They're going to ride Gudlevskis. It was likely agreed upon with Merzlikins before the training camp that Silovs is going to be the 1st goalie so they did not even invite Elvis.

So now in an ironic twist we're left without any NHL goalies.

The 2nd goalie is Grigals.

For some reason, though, they've left one goalie spot open
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Unless Merzlikins himself declared he will not be a back-up (which he might have), I see no reason not to invite him.

So, Merzlikins is out for some personal reason, Silovs is out with a last minute fatigue / injury, Punnenovs is out because, I dont know - bad season? Not like Grigals had any better.

Every time we get a new goalie prospect, I shrug a little - another one? We have plenty of those, we need skaters. And yet for the most important tournament in several years, if Gudy is for some reason out, we are left to decide between ECHL goalie and Mestis goalie, who wasnt even in camp (Vitols coming to help).

Thats a weird situation to be in for a nation, that has top league goalies to fill two rosters.
 
kabidjan18 said:
I'm not going to weigh in on that, but a certain beloved Latvian friend of ours may come upon you with the heat of a thousand suns.
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I don't hold onto my views if facts come in the way.

But whenever people discuss goalies, somehow stats no longer apply as much as the general vibe people get from watching said goalie. I have no idea why is that.

Merzlikins is mentally volatile. However, as of this point and time, Merzlikins is an average NHL goalie. His career SVS% is almost exactly the median. Whatever you're projecting on him, you can't argue with numbers.

Gudlevskis was a below average AHL goalie. He has since been very solid in Euro leagues.

Now, the median rate of production for NHL forwards is about 0.40 PPG. So the Merzlikins equivalent among forwards would be someone scoring at that rate over his career.

Some comparables:
Pius Suter
Lars Eller
Lawson Crouse
Scott Laughton
Martin Pospisil

Now, would you snub any of these guys over a forward who played on the 2nd line in Slovakia, did not make it in SHL, had a stint in ICEHL and now plays in DEL?

Does that make sense to you? It makes no sense to me.
 
Vikz said:
Unless Merzlikins himself declared he will not be a back-up (which he might have), I see no reason not to invite him.

So, Merzlikins is out for some personal reason, Silovs is out with a last minute fatigue / injury, Punnenovs is out because, I dont know - bad season? Not like Grigals had any better.

Every time we get a new goalie prospect, I shrug a little - another one? We have plenty of those, we need skaters. And yet for the most important tournament in several years, if Gudy is for some reason out, we are left to decide between ECHL goalie and Mestis goalie, who wasnt even in camp (Vitols coming to help).

Thats a weird situation to be in for a nation, that has top league goalies to fill two rosters.
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Gudlevskis is still the best goalie of the Riga tournament, so it's not like this affects our chances in a major way. Statistically, we could expect to concede an extra goal *at most* over the span of those 3 games due to missing Merzlikins/Silovs.
 
Namejs said:
Gudlevskis is still the best goalie of the Riga tournament, so it's not like this affects our chances in a major way. Statistically, we could expect to concede an extra goal *at most* over the span of those 3 games due to missing Merzlikins/Silovs.
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Still three games in four days (although Grigals or Vitols might start against Ukraine), and now we need to pray nothing happens to Gudlevskis. France has enough capable forwards, including from the NHL, so we need the best goalie in the best shape.
 
Vikz said:
Still three games in four days (although Grigals or Vitols might start against Ukraine), and now we need to pray nothing happens to Gudlevskis. France has enough capable forwards, including from the NHL, so we need the best goalie in the best shape.
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We could ice 5 different teams capable of beating Ukraine. Grigals is a globetrotter of a goalie compared to anyone they have. It's really not an issue if we ice Grigals. It's not an issue Silovs is not playing.

And, no, we don't need Silovs to beat France.

Blueger not joining had a bigger impact on our %chance of qualifying. Which is about 70%.
 
Namejs said:
And, no, we don't need Silovs to beat France.
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I was referring to Gudy being in the best shape. Hope they dont just decide to ride him for three games straight. Agreed that Grigals or Vitols are capable enough to easily beat Ukraine.
 
I doubt the Russia situation will be changing any time soon whatever happens in the US, so would just hope the IIHF do the sensible thing of giving their place to the best 2nd-place in the qualifiers rather than by world-ranking.
 
Norway's lineup against Japan. Today 15.30

Artnzen starts in the goal.
Zuccarello and Thoresen in the 1. line with Salsten Erik.
1724935454833.png
 
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aquaregia said:
I doubt the Russia situation will be changing any time soon whatever happens in the US, so would just hope the IIHF do the sensible thing of giving their place to the best 2nd-place in the qualifiers rather than by world-ranking.
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However they do it, the decision is going to be made after the fact. Which by default means it's not going to be fair.

The IIHF should have made a decision regarding this a long time ago. Whether Russia is banned or not, they could have thought of an if/then scenario. It's not that hard.
 
Namejs said:
However they do it, the decision is going to be made after the fact. Which by default means it's not going to be fair.

The IIHF should have made a decision regarding this a long time ago. Whether Russia is banned or not, they could have thought of an if/then scenario. It's not that hard.
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I can't disagree; the 'Russia staying banned' scenario wasn't exactly a difficult one to forsee was it l0l
 
Hanji said:
The France-Ukraine feed is horrible.
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It is indeed.

Ukrainian feed is okay, so is the French one on HockeyFrance.tv... so no comment :rolleyes:

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
 
SoundAndFury said:
Hungary outshooting Kazakhstan 26-10 yet trailing 2-3. Kazakhstan looks their regular bad.
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1st and 3rd KAZ goals were pretty comical from a Hungarian defensive viewpoint, I'd have said against betters Kazakhstan would probably still end up losing but Hungary's offence hasn't really been too sharp either.

and just as I say that there's another... Poor Ortenszky has been having an absolute nightmare.
 
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