Oilers were overwhelmingly #1 cup favorites going into the season. Are they still #1 today?

[Fatass]

An adult would recognized a commonly used by adults sample size of 5 years that helps to avoid the recency bias on the one hand and the irrelevant data on the other hand.

When it comes specifically to Oilers, all the relevant players were on the team 5 years ago. So, unless you want to call guys like McDavid and Draisaitl irrelevant....

So. Because these players have been the core for several years and not produced a Cup history dictates they can’t now?

 

[Hint1k]

So. Because these players have been the core for several years and not produced a Cup history dictates they can’t now?

You are took the message out of context. Here is the context for you:

This does not mean Oilers can't win it all this year, it means some people think they are top1 or top3 due to recency bias.

 

[Kingsfan1]

Florida
Vegas
Oilers

So top 3 in that order

 

[Fatass]

You are took the message out of context. Here is the context for you:

Understood. Imo the Oilers have McDavid but he needs to overcome having defence and goaltending deficits. Teams like the Jets with Helly, or one of the other great goalies have better shots.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I have zero trust in Skinner or the defensive play of the Oilers. Fair or not, numbers backing it or not. Nurse and Bouchard will have a lot of defensive lapses and I dont trust their team defense either, even though people at the moment speak wonders of Draisaitl's defensive play.

They're free to prove me wrong though. Timely defensive lapses and goaltending will be their biggest downfalls IMO.

Don't you mean "prove you right"?

They're
#1 in the NHL in high danger chances against per 60 (1st last year)
4th in scoring chances against per 60 (6th last year)
5th in expected goals against (6th last year)

Their defense is literally top-5 in the NHL and that's the area that you're criticising?

No offense but talking like someone that hasn't watched an Oilers game in like 5 years and you're criticisms carry no weight.

 

[Murzu]

Don't you mean "prove you right"?

They're
#1 in the NHL in high danger chances against per 60 (1st last year)
4th in scoring chances against per 60 (6th last year)
5th in expected goals against (6th last year)

Their defense is literally top-5 in the NHL and that's the area that you're criticising?

No offense but talking like someone that hasn't watched an Oilers game in like 5 years and you're criticisms carry no weight.

No offense taken. I watch Oilers typically around 3-5 times a year, sometimes more.

I really don't care if my criticisms carry weight or not, to you or anyone else. I got my POV and you have stats to back up your points. I respect that. When there is a lot on the line, I personally have no trust in Oilers goaltending, defense or team defense. We will see how things play out during the spring. Cheers mate!

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

No offense taken. I watch Oilers typically around 3-5 times a year, sometimes more.

I really don't care if my criticisms carry weight or not, to you or anyone else. I got my POV and you have stats to back up your points. I respect that. When there is a lot on the line, I personally have no trust in Oilers goaltending, defense or team defense. We will see how things play out during the spring. Cheers mate!

Fair enough. I didn't mean to pick on you specifically but it seems there's an overarching perception on these boards from other fanbases that the Oilers still hemorrhage goals against based on the track record they had coming out of the decade of darkness, not realising how much they've improved systematically and the maturation of their young core. It's easy to see the few highlights of Bouchard making a defensive gaffe or Skinner letting in a bad goal here or there, but I think a lot of people confuse 'bad' goals with volume of goals. It's even something certain posters on the Oilers forum seem to struggle with

 

[sensfan4lifee]

Put up a poll and see if people say Stuzle is a top 5 centre in the league

Draisaitl, McDavid, Barkov, Mackinnon, Eichel, Reinhart, Point, Crosby, Necas, Scheifle - there’s 10 that are better than “Timmy”

I won’t even do Brady lol - guy has achieved what as a captain? Great leader

Necas isn't a center he plays wing, Eichel he's never even matched TImmy's best season in points so I'm going to disagree with that, Scheifle is wouldnt say is better than Timmy, also add into the fact timmy is young on a very good deal. you're horribly wrong, also Reinhart plays mostly wing.

 

[Murzu]

Fair enough. I didn't mean to pick on you specifically but it seems there's an overarching perception on these boards from other fanbases that the Oilers still hemorrhage goals against based on the track record they had coming out of the decade of darkness, not realising how much they've improved systematically and the maturation of their young core. It's easy to see the few highlights of Bouchard making a defensive gaffe or Skinner letting in a bad goal here or there, but I think a lot of people confuse 'bad' goals with volume of goals. It's even something certain posters on the Oilers forum seem to struggle with

Thanks for the civilized conversation.

 

[Coffey]

No offense taken. I watch Oilers typically around 3-5 times a year, sometimes more.

I really don't care if my criticisms carry weight or not, to you or anyone else. I got my POV and you have stats to back up your points. I respect that. When there is a lot on the line, I personally have no trust in Oilers goaltending, defense or team defense. We will see how things play out during the spring. Cheers mate!

Same GA/GP as Carolina and Vegas.
DO YOU NOT TRUST THEM EITHER?

 

[hangman005]

Same GA/GP as Carolina and Vegas.
DO YOU NOT TRUST THEM EITHER?

As a Canes and Vegas fan.... No. I miss Logan Thompson

 

[Coffey]

As a Canes and Vegas fan.... No. I miss Logan Thompson

But hey, at least Adin Hill means a guaranteed win against the Oil lmao

 

[hangman005]

But hey, at least Adin Hill means a guaranteed win against the Oil lmao

That is the most important thing. If Hill could pretend every team was the Oilers, I like our chances

 

[Coffey]

That is the most important thing. If Hill could pretend every team was the Oilers, I like our chances

Out of curiosity I looked up his career splits against the Oilers...

And he's 3-3-1.

This is why the eye test is bad lollll

8-1-1 against the Ducks though.

6-0 AGAINST THE JETS

 

[hangman005]

Out of curiosity I looked up his career splits against the Oilers...

And he's 3-3-1.

This is why the eye test is bad lollll

8-1-1 against the Ducks though.

6-0 AGAINST THE JETS

I feel everyone should have similar splits Vs the Ducks.

As for the Jets, we won a series against them with Brossoit...... and half their team being injured

 

[Coffey]

As for the Jets, we won a series against them with Brossoit...... and half their team being injured

Was that the year you beat us, when Brossoit got injured and Hill came in to take over?

 

[hangman005]

Was that the year you beat us, when Brossoit got injured and Hill came in to take over?

Twas indeed. Things just rolled that year. Lets do it again this year

 

[Coffey]

Twas indeed. Things just rolled that year. Lets do it again this year

 

[hangman005]

 

[Coffey]

 

[hangman005]

Jokes on you, we get to drop the prize in the ocean in the end....

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Still Dallas for me , oilers are top 3 though . Wouldn’t be surprised at another conference final or even cup final . Florida always peaks at the right time so they’d round out my top 3

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Understood. Imo the Oilers have McDavid but he needs to overcome having defence and goaltending deficits. Teams like the Jets with Helly, or one of the other great goalies have better shots.

the Jets, with Hellybuyck in net and one of the best defenses in the league, won 1 playoff game last year....and 1 playoff game in 2023
Oilers, with Skinner in net, outdueled Jake Oetinger in the WCF last year

Shesterkin has never reached the Cup final

I think the "needing an elite goalie" is overrated

 

[Rorschach]

the Jets, with Hellybuyck in net and one of the best defenses in the league, won 1 playoff game last year....and 1 playoff game in 2023
Oilers, with Skinner in net, outdueled Jake Oetinger in the WCF last year

Shesterkin has never reached the Cup final

I think the "needing an elite goalie" is overrated

Technically you don't NEED anything but if you don't have one of the key players down the middle, you better have a rare double up of another key position. For example, Penguins with Crosby and Malkin, Ducks with Pronger and Niedermayer, Detroit with Yzerman and Federov, etc., with the rest of the team being solid.

Also the Shesterkin example is bad. No one is saying having a top goaltender is all you need. It's just one thing you will need on a full roster in order to be a true Cup favorite.

There are two exceptions: first is the above where you have a solid team but a double up on a core position; second is the NHL playoffs has only mediocre teams so you can cakewalk. Both exceptions are very rare.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

An adult would recognized a commonly used by adults sample size of 5 years that helps to avoid the recency bias on the one hand and the irrelevant data on the other hand.

When it comes specifically to Oilers, all the relevant players were on the team 5 years ago. So, unless you want to call guys like McDavid and Draisaitl irrelevant....

That is simply terrible accounting for variables. 80% turnover and you're like, "Yup. Same thing!"

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what recency bias is, and it's evident by stating that 5 years is the time horizon commonly used to avoid it. There is no set time, as it can take a differencer of seconds for the bias to take effect.

If you want to breakdown the past vs. expected performance of the 4 remaining players, you may have the basis for an honest argument, but for the purposes of the argument that was made, that data must be discarded.