Oilers were overwhelmingly #1 cup favorites going into the season. Are they still #1 today?

[Fatass]

the Jets, with Hellybuyck in net and one of the best defenses in the league, won 1 playoff game last year....and 1 playoff game in 2023
Oilers, with Skinner in net, outdueled Jake Oetinger in the WCF last year

Shesterkin has never reached the Cup final

I think the "needing an elite goalie" is overrated

And when it came to the winner take all games seven for the Cup the great goalie beat the great centre. Bob allowed only one goal and McDavid got zero points. Maybe that’s as close as McDavid ever gets, considering the weaknesses in his club?

 

[benfranklin]

I dont even consider them top 3 in the West and then you throw in the East

Jets and Knights are both better.
Avs have goaltending finally and may be the Cup favorites now.
Devils and Panthers are both still stronger.

The Oilers need another legendary PK and Skinner playing like an actual starter. Both are unlikley to show up again this playoffs.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

And when it came to the winner take all games seven for the Cup the great goalie beat the great centre. Bob allowed only one goal and McDavid got zero points. Maybe that’s as close as McDavid ever gets, considering the weaknesses in his club?

Bob was the difference in Game 7
But Vegas beat Bob in 2023 behind their 3rd stringer
And Colorado won the Cup with an “average” goalie in Kuemper in 2022
Teams have shown you need elite goaltending to win it all going back to the Red Wings days with Osgood

 

[dalewood12]

I agree with Top 3.

 

[gritdash60]

You missed the goalie trades?

Yes i missed a upcoming young goalie traded for a mediocre goalie, and the contract they gave out one of the woods, possibly didnt even know which one for.

 

[Murzu]

Same GA/GP as Carolina and Vegas.
DO YOU NOT TRUST THEM EITHER?

I trust them more than Oilers.

 

[NeverForget06]

Necas isn't a center he plays wing, Eichel he's never even matched TImmy's best season in points so I'm going to disagree with that, Scheifle is wouldnt say is better than Timmy, also add into the fact timmy is young on a very good deal. you're horribly wrong, also Reinhart plays mostly wing.

Lol I hate Eichel but hes twice the player Stuzle is - winning is more than scoring points - put up a poll like I said

 

[Hint1k]

That is simply terrible accounting for variables. 80% turnover and you're like, "Yup. Same thing!"

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what recency bias is, and it's evident by stating that 5 years is the time horizon commonly used to avoid it. There is no set time, as it can take a differencer of seconds for the bias to take effect.

If you want to breakdown the past vs. expected performance of the 4 remaining players, you may have the basis for an honest argument, but for the purposes of the argument that was made, that data must be discarded.

What you want is to discard data you don't like. Your arguments why you want to discard it - are very understandable. But the mere fact that you make such arguments - makes you biased. In order to avoid being biased you have to accept data you don't like, even when your arguments are perfect.

Why?

Because it is always possible to make any argument about any data. You can easily make an argument that the last year Oilers team and their playoff run is not relevant for this year team. But then people find themselves with no data at all, because there is no correct data exist in real life. So 5 years is a common compromise between recency and relevancy. That is what people do pretty much everywhere - business, politics, sports, etc.

 

[Czechboy]

I don't think we were top 3 to start the season...I don't think we are top 3 now.

Using the west.. AVS, knights and stars are huge cup contenders. I know AVS have struggled a bit but they are legit IMO. Then you have Minny and the jets.

Having said that... We need small pieces to get us over the top. A different goalie to pair with Stu. I've suggested guys like vejmalka (before he got hot) or the now traded Blackwood. Someone to push him and takeover just in case.

2RD is a problem and they can mix and match that d core all they want. We have 3 top 4 defenders and need another. Someone like provorov.

So we don't need homeruns. We need two solid trades or even waiver wire pickups. Eg. Fabro would have been nice.