Post-Game Talk: Oilers ruin the Yzerplan

[Da McBomb]

You just knew Leon was going to have a special night turning 29 years old. I look for the same from Connor on his 97th birthday.

 

[Soundwave]

You act like it's so easy to come into the league and start well over 100 games over 2 seasons with a save pct. of .913 and .905.
This is a 25 year old doing this btw fresh into the league.

You're even suggesting that Rittich fill this role.
I'll just be nice and say that I agree to disagree that you can just plug anybody in there and expect them to be as good as Skinner starting 55-60 games a year.

That's not worth paying $6+ million for. Our cap will be tight in two years in part because genius Holland signed Campbell and there's a significant buy out penalty that year.

We don't have the money to spend top dollar on every position.

Skinner has to be one of the best goalies in the league and a guy who can legitimately win games on his own when the team has little in the tank, the way Talbot did in 16-17 and Roloson did in 2006 to justify paying him big dollars. If we're going to spend money on our goaltending it has to be for someone who is worth it.

Otherwise buh-bye. There will be lots of decent enough young goalies that can put up .905 playing behind a team that limits high danger chances to near the bottom of the league.

 

[mcdingdong]

meh. We're just on this now because RNH is having one of his low ebbs. One of the things that works with him is he's a perfect bumper for a star studded PP because he won't overplay the puck, he will often just make the play that is there. Arvid will often overplay the puck and is too small to be strong on puck. So with Arivd its easier to get puck off him and teams have geared to this, even the Oilers were stripping Arvid from puck when he was a King.

Arvid is a good puck control player that can move well in traffic. JMO he's better used in 5 on 5. On PP he tries to do too much. We already have those players on the PP. You need guys that are just safe possession bumpers that will make the right probability play. RNH ticks that box a lot of the time.

Agree 100%. Nuge also very critical on zone entries as he takes the lion's share of McDavid's passes on entry and has to make a quick play with it to maintain the zone. He is good at facilitating for the others and being a pressure release valve. Wouldn't mind him making some more decisive plays once in a while though. And this obviously isn't in response to the poor start he has had this year (particularly 5v5).
I guess a further question would be, why tinker with the best PP unit ever just because they've had a slow start to season? I think multiple years of PP dominance has earned a bit of leash, no?

 

[ConnorNova0929]

Perfect game is no hits

This will never not be funny. Thank you Dallas Eakins.

 

[Soundwave]

Agree 100%. Nuge also very critical on zone entries as he takes the lion's share of McDavid's passes on entry and has to make a quick play with it to maintain the zone. He is good at facilitating for the others and being a pressure release valve. Wouldn't mind him making some more decisive plays once in a while though. And this obviously isn't in response to the poor start he has had this year (particularly 5v5).
I guess a further question would be, why tinker with the best PP unit ever just because they've had a slow start to season? I think multiple years of PP dominance has earned a bit of leash, no?

When you're getting close to 10 games of shit production, I don't care what the rep is, try something new.

 

[CupofOil]

That's not worth paying $6+ million for. Our cap will be tight in two years in part because genius Holland signed Campbell and there's a significant buy out penalty that year.

We don't have the money to spend top dollar on every position.

Skinner has to be one of the best goalies in the league and a guy who can legitimately win games on his own when the team has little in the tank, the way Talbot did in 16-17 and Roloson did in 2006 to justify paying him big dollars. If we're going to spend money on our goaltending it has to be for someone who is worth it.

Otherwise buh-bye. There will be lots of decent enough young goalies that can put up .905 playing behind a team that limits high danger chances to near the bottom of the league.

That contract could be troublesome although only a $2m or so raise over what he makes now but I disagree vehemently that there are lots of young cheap goalies that can start 55-60 games a season and put up a .913 and .095 save pct.

 

[mcdingdong]

When you're getting close to 10 games of shit production, I don't care what the rep is, try something new.

Ok, call the coach pal

 

[Soundwave]

That contract could be troublesome although only a $2m or so raise over what he makes now but I disagree vehemently that there are lots of young cheap goalies that can start 55-60 games a season and put up a .913 and .095 save pct.

It's not as rare as you make it out to be.

David Riitich himself at around the same age put up .911 and .907 playing 45 and 48 games for the Flames early in his career.

The league is full of guys like this who are OK/decent if put on an OK team but then their career never fully pans out as they're simply not that great.

For all we know Skinner is just that, if his save percentage is not around .910 this regular season, that will be a pretty clear tell tale sign of a guy who's not really progressing much and doesn't have an upper tier to his game. Right now he's sitting at .890 and once again near the bottom of the league in GSAA so he's got a ways to go.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The wild thing about Oilers goaltending is their original vision was a Cup window phase led by veteran big money guy Campbell running the starter's net for likely 3 or 4 of those 5 contract years eventually tilting starts and quality game situations over time to Skinner as a slow cook back-up.

That plan was out the door year one. And by year two Campbell's out the door. Skinner's had to absorb the starter's pressure and franchise massive expectation really from early rookie series on. The challenge has been deep water development with a young goaltender within an expectant Cup contender team that in itself has had significant volatility in its play, costing 2 coaches their jobs during that time. I'm actually amazed Skinner has held up mentally.

Skinner will never be the Gumby flexible, elite athlete goaltender type that dominates this modern era of high speed and shooting skill. This team's need is for a still young, developing tender to continue building his consistency while mitigating some periods of wild volatility in his game.

The Oilers are an elite ice tilting team (even during this ice-cold shooting phase) which can have a distorting effect of their goaltenders facing fewer high danger shots. The Oilers team defending and goal suppression work can often have its own inconsistencies so often their goals against issues are team breakdown.

Tough spot for this team. Skinner's never going to be one of the league's precious few elite goaltenders that can steal playoff series (imo) but needs to continue to develop to be a more consistent one in the bulk majority category of NHL goaltenders capable of getting hot to backstop long playoff runs in which a lot of things go right for teams ... like a 94% PK rate this past year.

The Oilers are in a bit of a high wire act with this critical position. But that's on the organization's poor, expensive bet on Jack Campbell and on Campbell himself for not rising to the pressure of playing on a ready to roll Window team.

 

[tardigrade81]

Lol I don't recommend it. Not worth it.

My girlfriend at the time told me I was being a little bitch about the whole thing, which, I kind of was but honestly I was a little concerned. Lol.

I got her back though by asked for a kiss, had her British ass in the same circle of hell I was in just by giving her a quick second of tongue.

Maybe it was worth it.

I have seen people on YouTube do that challenge and they think they are dying. It looks horrible lmao. I wouldn’t call anyone that for attempting that. I will never try that holy shit. That is just flirting with dead lol. I think it would give me a heart attack !!

 

[Fourier]

He's not gonna be here most likely in 2 years if he wants a lot of money. Pickard is giving similar production to him for like 1 million dollars, secondly our cap structure with an expensive goalie probably doesn't work. McDavid and Bouchard have to get their money.

Our High Danger chances against I believe is like third best in the league looking at Natural Stat Trick even with some hiccups this year.

We don't allow many high danger chances against systemically (also why the people flailing like a chicken with its head cut off because no Ceci early in the season were being stupid). That should allow a lot of goalies to come in and do well.

Assuming the Oilers win or continue to come close , I would not be surprised if they move on if he wants big dollars. I agree that a high paid goalie is a challenge to the Oilers cap structure.

And yes, the Oilers metrics this year 5 vs 5 have been a lot better than might be expected. It is their special teams that have let them down. With Special teams anywhere close to where they were in the playoffs this team may be 7-2-0 right now.

 

[K1984]

Agree 100%. Nuge also very critical on zone entries as he takes the lion's share of McDavid's passes on entry and has to make a quick play with it to maintain the zone. He is good at facilitating for the others and being a pressure release valve. Wouldn't mind him making some more decisive plays once in a while though. And this obviously isn't in response to the poor start he has had this year (particularly 5v5).
I guess a further question would be, why tinker with the best PP unit ever just because they've had a slow start to season? I think multiple years of PP dominance has earned a bit of leash, no?

Nuge is so critical to the PP that I think that his poor play to start the year is a major part of the problem. His puck touches, board play, speed of decision making, all of it is just either a step too slow or just bad in general.

In the past our PP has faltered if he's been out of the lineup because we don't have the facilitator, but I think now it's been faltering because he's just been straight up bad.

 

[mcdingdong]

Nuge is so critical to the PP that I think that his poor play to start the year is a major part of the problem. His puck touches, board play, speed of decision making, all of it is just either a step too slow or just bad in general.

In the past our PP has faltered if he's been out of the lineup because we don't have the facilitator, but I think now it's been faltering because he's just been straight up bad.

Agree. That coupled with absolutely no finish from anybody on the unit really, lol.

 

[K1984]

Agree. That coupled with absolutely no finish from anybody on the unit really, lol.

Oh 100%, but I think the zone entries have been a major part of the problem as well, which are significantly Nuge related.

Another thing I've noticed - we're losing a lot of opening draws on power plays. This needs to be a starting point to getting back on track, because when we win the opening draw clean I swear our PP efficiency goes up like 50%. Have nothing to back that up other than my eye and perception so I could be out to lunch, but I think it's part of the issue.

 

[MessierII]

Yeah. Even the players that are supposed to be here to score are not scoring. None of them are commensurate with even reasonable expectation.

Skinner has 2 goals (not enough)
Nuge goal (not enough
Hyman, Arvid etc zero goals (you kidding me?)

Brown, Henrique, Perry all have just one goal.

On the board here seems like we've had bottom level expectations of anybody not named McD or Drai.

As per usual McDrai, Ekholm, Booch are carrying the club. Hyman, Nuge used to be part of that core but this season not even being that.
Nearly 10 games in and it looks like its time for McD to start yelling dig in or something again. Vast majority of club haven't even checked in.

Same thing every year. Doesn’t really matter the personnel it literally happens to start every season.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Agree 100%. Nuge also very critical on zone entries as he takes the lion's share of McDavid's passes on entry and has to make a quick play with it to maintain the zone. He is good at facilitating for the others and being a pressure release valve. Wouldn't mind him making some more decisive plays once in a while though. And this obviously isn't in response to the poor start he has had this year (particularly 5v5).
I guess a further question would be, why tinker with the best PP unit ever just because they've had a slow start to season? I think multiple years of PP dominance has earned a bit of leash, no?

There's a lot of variables for the poor PP results. Broadly speaking their passing hasn't been good with too many misfires that go into a teammates feet. Strangely that includes McDavid's zone entries which are increasingly contested. Nuge also needs to show shot more and change his shooting angle - he's more accurate with centre slot attempts versus flank.

A couple things I'd like more information about. They seem to lose a high number of PP o-zone face-offs which mitigate some of their momentum. Their PP o-zone time is ok at 60.7%/78 percentile though down 62.5% and 64% in three year sample.

Somewhat bigger jump has been in PP own zone time at 26.2% (75 percentile) up from 23.8% and 23.4% (93 and 96 percentile). We saw a couple opposition teams PK aggressively up ice including the Oilers zone to disrupt the McDavid neutral zone attack with speed. Add the face-off losses ... at least by my limited eye test. Defenders are also stacking/clogging the middle of the ice sometimes in Diamond Kill formation which is disrupting cross ice passing.

That said, the Oilers are still generating elite shot volume but grossly underperforming in converting into goals notably high danger and mid-range.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Same thing every year. Doesn’t really matter the personnel it literally happens to start every season.

Sure, but as recently as a week ago a plurality on the board we're saying thats all McD, Drai, Booch fault, "they're terrible"

My counter was these guys, particularly Booch, Drai, they weren't far off where they should be. Conversely one McD 4pt game followed by a fairly typically had 3pt game and he's right there. Never a worry he'll be around top in the scoring race if not winning it.

Its the rest of the team I worry about. We have 4 players rowing well. Two are D.

REALLY tired of the Connor Brown all talk guys, and a lot of them on this team that say all the right things any day and promptly lay goose eggs all over the ice. What possibly can be the excuse for Brown now. Not health, not two years of rehab not being enough. Some games the effort isn't even what it should be. Especially given the sod only has around 10-12 shifts a nght to worry about. Guy should be flying out there like Eddie Shack. Should be noticed every shift. Brown is easily worse than he was last half of season or playoffs. Why this time? Just waiting for others to get it done? Seems far too common on this club.

 

[K1984]

There's a lot of variables for the poor PP results. Broadly speaking their passing hasn't been good with too many misfires that go into a teammates feet. Strangely that includes McDavid's zone entries which are increasingly contested. Nuge also needs to show shot more and change his shooting angle - he's more accurate with centre slot attempts versus flank.

A couple things I'd like more information about. They seem to lose a high number of PP o-zone face-offs which mitigate some of their momentum. Their PP o-zone time is ok at 60.7%/78 percentile though down 62.5% and 64% in three year sample.

Somewhat bigger jump has been in PP own zone time at 26.2% (75 percentile) up from 23.8% and 23.4% (93 and 96 percentile). We saw a couple opposition teams PK aggressively up ice including the Oilers zone to disrupt the McDavid neutral zone attack with speed. Add the face-off losses ... at least by my limited eye test. Defenders are also stacking/clogging the middle of the ice sometimes in Diamond Kill formation which is disrupting cross ice passing.

That said, the Oilers are still generating elite shot volume but grossly underperforming in converting into goals notably high danger and mid-range.

Thank you for passing on a data point that helps prove my gut feel. I swear we lose 90% of the opening PP draws.

 

[MessierII]

Sure, but as recently as a week ago a plurality on the board we're saying thats all McD, Drai, Booch fault, "they're terrible"

My counter was these guys, particularly Booch, Drai, they weren't far off where they should be. Conversely one McD 4pt game followed by a fairly typically had 3pt game and he's right there. Never a worry he'll be around top in the scoring race if not winning it.

Its the rest of the team I worry about. We have 4 players rowing well. Two are D.

REALLY tired of the Connor Brown all talk guys, and a lot of them on this team that say all the right things any day and promptly lay goose eggs all over the ice. What possibly can be the excuse for Brown now. Not health, not two years of rehab not being enough. Some games the effort isn't even what it should be. Especially given the sod only has around 10-12 shifts a nght to worry about. Guy should be flying out there like Eddie Shack. Should be noticed every shift. Brown is easily worse than he was last half of season or playoffs. Why this time? Just waiting for others to get it done? Seems far too common on this club.

I’m not worried about the rest of the team because like I said this happens every year. We’ve changed out the bottom 6 multiple times over and every single time they start slow the first 15 games or so but the end of the year it generally works out.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I’m not worried about the rest of the team because like I said this happens every year. We’ve changed out the bottom 6 multiple times over and every single time they start slow the first 15 games or so but the end of the year it generally works out.

Some of the players that "worked out" last year didn't, from a production stand point, all of last season. So that guys like Brown, Janmark, Ryan, Perry generally pissed very little. We've added players like Pods who despite his work never scores and is unlikely to bag as many as 10G. Thats 5 forwards who I don't know we can even expect to be scoring much at all.

Trouble is HYman had 50% greater scoring % than average and so all other things being equal drops to 30something goals this year. Skinner supposed to take up the slack.

I guess the guys I'm not worried about scoring at least are McD, Drai, Booch, I suppose Skinner. I think Hyman hopefully doesn't drill himself into the ice. So hard to come from a year like that and suddenly not feeling it. Beyond those guys I don't see scoring in the lineup. Nuge looks to be having one of his really quiet years. Still think he could get 20. Arvid, nah.

 

[K1984]

I’m not worried about the rest of the team because like I said this happens every year. We’ve changed out the bottom 6 multiple times over and every single time they start slow the first 15 games or so but the end of the year it generally works out.

I wish I had a dollar for every October 30th headline of "McDavid and Draisaitl have scored X while the rest of the roster has scored Y" with the two numbers being similar. Literally every season for the past 8 or 9 years it goes this way, and literally every season the bottom of the lineup starts getting some traction ~15-20 games into the year.

Add it to the list of things that occur every year here, no matter the coach, the personnel, the opposition, etc. Basically if you put on an Oilers sweater and you're a bottom 6 player - you're going to suck until about November 15th at best.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Thank you for passing on a data point that helps prove my gut feel. I swear we lose 90% of the opening PP draws.

I'd like to dig into situational face-off information. Don't know where to find it. But we have similar eye tests which suggest the Oilers are losing a fair bit of PP face-offs.

I posted an article about the Coaches's App which deliver real time data and it alludes to the two most requested information included face-off information. Funny that a long-time advance stat theorem had been that face-offs didn't matter.

Another article on the Coaches App: The SAP Coaching Insights App Is Changing Hockey: ‘This Is What You Can’t See With Video’ The app provides historical data of previous face-off results for every pairing of two players—not only in total, but also based on each face-off dot location. Winning a draw, particularly the first one after taking a penalty, can be critical in killing a two-minute short-handed situation. “If we can win the first face-off and get a 200-foot clear, it takes our opponents’ power play, maybe 20, 25 seconds to to try to gain access to our zone again, and then they’ve got to expend a lot of energy to do it,” Sullivan says.

That said, there are alot of variables to look at with this ice-cold PP which is ice-cold across all individual performance. And more aggressive PK tactics which includes disrupting the Oilers with deep kill work extending into the Oilers end and through the neutral zone. It's much bigger than a single support player in a distributor role.

 

[Canovin]

Sure, but as recently as a week ago a plurality on the board we're saying thats all McD, Drai, Booch fault, "they're terrible"

My counter was these guys, particularly Booch, Drai, they weren't far off where they should be. Conversely one McD 4pt game followed by a fairly typically had 3pt game and he's right there. Never a worry he'll be around top in the scoring race if not winning it.

Its the rest of the team I worry about. We have 4 players rowing well. Two are D.

REALLY tired of the Connor Brown all talk guys, and a lot of them on this team that say all the right things any day and promptly lay goose eggs all over the ice. What possibly can be the excuse for Brown now. Not health, not two years of rehab not being enough. Some games the effort isn't even what it should be. Especially given the sod only has around 10-12 shifts a nght to worry about. Guy should be flying out there like Eddie Shack. Should be noticed every shift. Brown is easily worse than he was last half of season or playoffs. Why this time? Just waiting for others to get it done? Seems far too common on this club.

Brown is saving it for the playoffs. As shown from last finals

 

[Canovin]

Nuge is so critical to the PP that I think that his poor play to start the year is a major part of the problem. His puck touches, board play, speed of decision making, all of it is just either a step too slow or just bad in general.

In the past our PP has faltered if he's been out of the lineup because we don't have the facilitator, but I think now it's been faltering because he's just been straight up bad.

Our PP is just McDavid dancing around the ice while looking to find Drai or Bouchard. Someone who has a great slap shot would make a living off RNH's spot, but we don't have one and now teams know what to expect from our PP

People want to believe RNH is a critical part of the PP because when RNH was away, our PP suck. That was more of a coincidence than anything. When our PP suck, it's because the guys are overpassing and refuse to shoot the puck

 

[K1984]

Our PP is just McDavid dancing around the ice while looking to find Drai or Bouchard. Someone who has a great slap shot would make a living off RNH's spot, but we don't have one and now teams who what to expect from our PP

That's our power play once we get in zone and establish possession. RNH is critical to that, and it hasn't been there this year. The break ins are atrocious, with McDavid, RNH and to a lesser extent Bouchard all having a hand in it.