Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[joestevens29]

I can't see it being a trend yet. It is too damaging to salary planning to be paying guys like this based on a threat. Teams know that they need to prioritize stars and those stars always have many more opportunities to move on than guys like Broberg and Holloway. So I suspect teams will simply see losing such players in the rare instances it happens as the cost of doing business.

It was a perfect storm. Oil had not cap space, Broberg wanted out and STL is a team on the cusp of playoffs that had cap space and a decent future.

While guys want money, they don't necessarily want to go from cup contender to bottom feeder

 

[SupremeTeam16]

The other thing to keep in mind is that this story isn’t finished yet, right now it doesn’t look great on the Oilers but let’s not forget that Broberg and Holloway are 23/24 year olds who haven’t done much of anything to establish themselves. If they go another year unable to make any sort of impact then they’re likely worth less then what they returned. Next offseason the story could very well be that the Oilers turned a couple disgruntled players who couldn’t make an impact into some draft capital and cap flexibility which allowed them to go out and add actual impactful players later in the year.

Both players now have to live up to the contracts they signed and the Blues aren’t exactly a roster devoid of similar level of players, Holloway especially seems like he could easily get lost in the roster shuffle. Broberg Im sure will get a bigger push to try and protect their expensive investment as STL is a team in the mushy middle of NHL competition so they can afford to prioritize individual player development but even still there’s still a mix of veterans he’s going to have to outperform (which he wasn’t able to do in Edmonton) and I look at a guy like Perunivich and I wonder how much he will be motivated after watching the team back up the brinks truck for an unproven kid. I really don’t think this is such a cut and dry situation and in the end the Oilers could actually come out looking better if they use the picks and cap space to improve their team more then Broberg and Holloway were likely to.

 

[joestevens29]

I would just go with the death by a 1000 paper cuts offer sheets to STL.

Just offer their RFA's a small raise over what STL is offering or the same offer but a deal that takes them right to UFA.

They offer Neighbours a 7 million x8 deal, we offer a 7 million x5 deal.

They offer a lower level RFA 800k, we offer them 900K.

This literally makes little sense. If STL is willing to offer him 7mil on 8 years I highly doubt they don't match 7mil on 5 years

Same with just offering 100k more

 

[McDNicks17]

This literally makes little sense. If STL is willing to offer him 7mil on 8 years I highly doubt they don't match 7mil on 5 years

Same with just offering 100k more

I think the point is they match, but end up with worse contracts.

 

[joestevens29]

The other thing to keep in mind is that this story isn’t finished yet, right now it doesn’t look great on the Oilers but let’s not forget that Broberg and Holloway are 23/24 year olds who haven’t done much of anything to establish themselves. If they go another year unable to make any sort of impact then they’re likely worth less then what they returned. Next offseason the story could very well be that the Oilers turned a couple disgruntled players who couldn’t make an impact into some draft capital and cap flexibility which allowed them to go out and add actual impactful players later in the year.

Both players now have to live up to the contracts they signed and the Blues aren’t exactly a roster devoid of similar level of players, Holloway especially seems like he could easily get lost in the roster shuffle. Broberg Im sure will get a bigger push to try and protect their expensive investment as STL is a team in the mushy middle of NHL competition so they can afford to prioritize individual player development but even still there’s still a mix of veterans he’s going to have to outperform (which he wasn’t able to do in Edmonton) and I look at a guy like Perunivich and I wonder how much he will be motivated after watching the team back up the brinks truck for an unproven kid. I really don’t think this is such a cut and dry situation and in the end the Oilers could actually come out looking better if they use the picks and cap space to improve their team more then Broberg and Holloway were likely to.

Are they any further behind if they don't live up to their contracts?

If anything they don't live up to it at the very least they got paid.

Even for the Blues are they really any further behind? They have the cap space and to acquire players like Broberg and Holloway probably costs them more if they were to make a trade. So if anything they made a transaction that costs them less assets, yes there is still that chance they bust or don't fit in, but the same could be said about most 23/24 years that they would've went after in a trade.

I think the point is they match, but end up with worse contracts.

Meh, it's not drastically worse

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Are they any further behind if they don't live up to their contracts?

If anything they don't live up to it at the very least they got paid.

Even for the Blues are they really any further behind? They have the cap space and to acquire players like Broberg and Holloway probably costs them more if they were to make a trade. So if anything they made a transaction that costs them less assets, yes there is still that chance they bust or don't fit in, but the same could be said about most 23/24 years that they would've went after in a trade.


Meh, it's not drastically worse

Well as Fourier has pointed out, for young players who haven’t fully established themselves, getting paid earlier can sometimes limit opportunity.

For the Blues there likely isn’t a huge risk but those contracts could limit their ability to make any big moves next offseason. They’re also a small market team with an ownership group made up of a dozen small fish and who’ve had poor revenue the last several years so it’s not like throwing away over 10M on a couple gambles is insignificant.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The other thing to keep in mind is that this story isn’t finished yet, right now it doesn’t look great on the Oilers but let’s not forget that Broberg and Holloway are 23/24 year olds who haven’t done much of anything to establish themselves. If they go another year unable to make any sort of impact then they’re likely worth less then what they returned. Next offseason the story could very well be that the Oilers turned a couple disgruntled players who couldn’t make an impact into some draft capital and cap flexibility which allowed them to go out and add actual impactful players later in the year.

Both players now have to live up to the contracts they signed and the Blues aren’t exactly a roster devoid of similar level of players, Holloway especially seems like he could easily get lost in the roster shuffle. Broberg Im sure will get a bigger push to try and protect their expensive investment as STL is a team in the mushy middle of NHL competition so they can afford to prioritize individual player development but even still there’s still a mix of veterans he’s going to have to outperform (which he wasn’t able to do in Edmonton) and I look at a guy like Perunivich and I wonder how much he will be motivated after watching the team back up the brinks truck for an unproven kid. I really don’t think this is such a cut and dry situation and in the end the Oilers could actually come out looking better if they use the picks and cap space to improve their team more then Broberg and Holloway were likely to.

Glass half full or half empty. Blues worst case scenario is a walkaway after year one for one-third contract. Low risk. High reward is a hard to get top 4 age 23 d-man coming off some proving points in the highest level of competition. That built upon a consensus dominating season in the AHL with big minutes, trust and confidence to play and play through mistakes.

Armstrong mentioned trade talks the past two seasons with Edmonton with a clear discussion of these players as coveted. Said their California based scout ex-player Dave Taylor saw them play alot there along with their Calgary based scout. The Blues won a Cup in recent memory building an elite, large and diverse skilled blueline. Decent track record for knowing the position. Perunivich and all their players and any NHL player should be motivated by competition. Status quo isn't good enough for non-super elites.

There's also a reasonable bet that the Oilers paid the hard cost of development years with Broberg specifically that manifests into a solid top 4 d with excellent attributes of size, skating and mobility. Armstrong and group throw in hockey sense too. I'll say that's still a development question unfolding against NHL competition. Holloway I've predicted is in Calgary within 3 years as the Blues prospect pool starts to online pedigree young forwards. But he was the loss leader to secure the hard to get asset of an NHL ready upwardly mobile big, skilled d-man.

Low risk. High reward for a difficult positional asset only nearing peak performance years. So two sides of the coin in viewing the future. Once the market was enabled to dictate value, potential and risk/reward the ship had sailed for Edmonton.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

This literally makes little sense. If STL is willing to offer him 7mil on 8 years I highly doubt they don't match 7mil on 5 years

Same with just offering 100k more

Chasing revenge instead of keeping your eye on the ball of your own organization's success is bad business and an offramp to staying employed in the NHL. The worst case is you overreach and actually get a player who's CBA return is really costly a 1st round pick at minimum and your left paying the inflationary salary required. Now that would be silly.

Besides which Armstrong mentioned protecting their future situation by keeping cap space available with unsigned RFA's while also mentioning Detroit doing that this summer (with $17.6 million) to pro-actively ward off poacher.

 

[McShogun99]

This literally makes little sense. If STL is willing to offer him 7mil on 8 years I highly doubt they don't match 7mil on 5 years

Same with just offering 100k more

You want them to match but to give them slightly worse contracts. 5 years takes Neighbours to UFA and adding a some extra money here and there will piss off the owner more then anyone else and send a message about future offer sheets.

 

[joestevens29]

You want them to match but to give them slightly worse contracts. 5 years takes Neighbours to UFA and adding a some extra money here and there will piss off the owner more then anyone else and send a message about future offer sheets.

How about you just lock up your RFA's or trade them before August?

Oilers did this to themselves.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

How about you just lock up your RFA's or trade them before August?

Oilers did this to themselves.

 

[Stoneman89]

I think the point is they match, but end up with worse contracts.

Yes, but that really does nothing for us, other than maybe give some people some satisfaction that we "got them back" a little. We can't be tying our success to sabatoging the Blues. IF the situation is absolutely right and makes sense, then do it, whether it's the Blues or whomever. But just doing it to get back at them will turn out making a mess for us, when we should be focusing on our own team and making them better.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Can we stop with this Revenge offer sheet nonsense? We got caught with our pants down, end of story. It's up to Bowman to deliver us a Cup, not get into petty squabbles with other GMs.

 

[joestevens29]

Yes, but that really does nothing for us, other than maybe give some people some satisfaction that we "got them back" a little. We can't be tying our success to sabatoging the Blues. IF the situation is absolutely right and makes sense, then do it, whether it's the Blues or whomever. But just doing it to get back at them will turn out making a mess for us, when we should be focusing on our own team and making them better.

The other kicker is what are the odds of us having our picks to do an offer sheet?

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

The other kicker is what are the odds of us having our picks to do an offer sheet?

If I'm not mistaken they have to be "our" picks too, not picks we acquired in trade right?

 

[Stoneman89]

Glass half full or half empty. Blues worst case scenario is a walkaway after year one for one-third contract. Low risk. High reward is a hard to get top 4 age 23 d-man coming off some proving points in the highest level of competition. That built upon a consensus dominating season in the AHL with big minutes, trust and confidence to play and play through mistakes.

Armstrong mentioned trade talks the past two seasons with Edmonton with a clear discussion of these players as coveted. Said their California based scout ex-player Dave Taylor saw them play alot there along with their Calgary based scout. The Blues won a Cup in recent memory building an elite, large and diverse skilled blueline. Decent track record for knowing the position. Perunivich and all their players and any NHL player should be motivated by competition. Status quo isn't good enough for non-super elites.

There's also a reasonable bet that the Oilers paid the hard cost of development years with Broberg specifically that manifests into a solid top 4 d with excellent attributes of size, skating and mobility. Armstrong and group throw in hockey sense too. I'll say that's still a development question unfolding against NHL competition. Holloway I've predicted is in Calgary within 3 years as the Blues prospect pool starts to online pedigree young forwards. But he was the loss leader to secure the hard to get asset of an NHL ready upwardly mobile big, skilled d-man.

Low risk. High reward for a difficult positional asset only nearing peak performance years. So two sides of the coin in viewing the future. Once the market was enabled to dictate value, potential and risk/reward the ship had sailed for Edmonton.

Good points. Another thing though, is there is a lot of attachment devoted to a players so called pedigree due to drafted positioning. If these were guys selected in round 3 or 4, it would still hurt for sure, but I doubt the emotional disappointment would be as high, due to optics. Biggest thing for me is the 4-5 years of development time within the organization that now goes to the Blues. But as has been mentioned, we only have a very small sample for these two (granted at a very high level), but consistency is what keeps players in this league. We need to remember that it was only a very short time ago, that the perception of these two was high picks, but consistent and frustrating injury history and unable to take the next big steps where you start wondering if it's ever going to happen. Will be fascinating to see how their careers pan out.

If I'm not mistaken they have to be "our" picks too, not picks we acquired in trade right?

Correct. And when you're in the so-called "window" of winning, the chances of us having our own necessary picks to do that, are likely going to be pretty slim the next while.

 

[joestevens29]

If I'm not mistaken they have to be "our" picks too, not picks we acquired in trade right?

Correct. Right now 7mil would be a 1st, 2nd and a 3rd. Next year could be 1st and 3rd.

Either way who knows if we will have our picks by next summer that satisfy an offer sheet.

Good points. Another thing though, is there is a lot of attachment devoted to a players so called pedigree due to drafted positioning. If these were guys selected in round 3 or 4, it would still hurt for sure, but I doubt the emotional disappointment would be as high, due to optics. Biggest thing for me is the 4-5 years of development time within the organization that now goes to the Blues. But as has been mentioned, we only have a very small sample for these two (granted at a very high level), but consistency is what keeps players in this league. We need to remember that it was only a very short time ago, that the perception of these two was high picks, but consistent and frustrating injury history and unable to take the next big steps where you start wondering if it's ever going to happen. Will be fascinating to see how their careers pan out.


Correct. And when you're in the so-called "window" of winning, the chances of us having our own necessary picks to do that, are likely going to be pretty slim the next while.

The kicker for me is with a weaker prospect pool these were going to be two guys that were going to be able to help the club for the near future.

Maybe they don't hit their ceilings, but they were going to bring something to the club with a potential to grow.

There just isn't a lot of youth knocking on the door now.

 

[McDNicks17]

Yes, but that really does nothing for us, other than maybe give some people some satisfaction that we "got them back" a little. We can't be tying our success to sabatoging the Blues. IF the situation is absolutely right and makes sense, then do it, whether it's the Blues or whomever. But just doing it to get back at them will turn out making a mess for us, when we should be focusing on our own team and making them better.

That's no fun though.

 

[McShogun99]

The ultimate revenge would be winning a cup in the next 2 years while Holloway and Broberg are watching the playoffs at home since the Blues failed to qualify both of those seasons.

Then we do some petty offer sheet out of spite.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Good points. Another thing though, is there is a lot of attachment devoted to a players so called pedigree due to drafted positioning. If these were guys selected in round 3 or 4, it would still hurt for sure, but I doubt the emotional disappointment would be as high, due to optics. Biggest thing for me is the 4-5 years of development time within the organization that now goes to the Blues. But as has been mentioned, we only have a very small sample for these two (granted at a very high level), but consistency is what keeps players in this league. We need to remember that it was only a very short time ago, that the perception of these two was high picks, but consistent and frustrating injury history and unable to take the next big steps where you start wondering if it's ever going to happen. Will be fascinating to see how their careers pan out.


Correct. And when you're in the so-called "window" of winning, the chances of us having our own necessary picks to do that, are likely going to be pretty slim the next while.

Fully agree, the cost is not just low draft picks but also the years of development all with financial and time cost. Factor in the Oilers poor draft/development history, a poor prospect pool, and more assets required to address roster issues cumulated by their summer choices.

The sample size includes some solid situational play in subsequent NHL pro years with early recall run with Nurse and Keith hurt; solid AHL numbers when farmed out; a real solid run on a kiddy 3rd pairing with Bouchard before the Ekholm trade bumped him down the lineup. Strong play at the most competitive situation just a month ago. It's a damn tough position as we watched with Bouchard's development up's and down's. Many posters were certain he wouldn't outgrow the tendencies in own zone play, read and reaction, processing speed. I was personally pretty positive it is just part of the process of onboard arguably the game's likely hardest position.

The market reality the Oilers walked into enabled a competitor to make a low risk opportunity to test their belief in the player and their scouting abilities. It's a reasonable bet with pretty minimal cost - asset wise and financial with the Krug LTIR needing replacement anyway.

Of course my steady optimism for Broberg figuring it out is now changed to hope he flames out.

 

[Fourier]

Yes, I see your distinctions and realize I am lumping alot of situations into my idle musing. The American card aside it was strange to see Gauthier pull that card on Philadelphia, a city that hasn't had problem attracting or retaining talent. A rebuild situation ideal for young players.

Agree, ELC's have always been a hard salary break for owners. McLeod was squeezed under a covid flat cap to a sub million contract. Reset with his last deal. The market is changing and will continue to do so if cash infusion grows as anticipated each year. Managers are pivoting as you point out to hard decisions on support players like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi. Elites are going to get paid. Largely interchangeable support players quite likely to get squeezed out with hard budget decisions.

There's a good post of Jeremy Swayman in the Rumours thread talking about his contract situation. Eyes wide open to the business and his situation within it to essentially not settle for less than his value for himself and other players. A modern athlete's sophisticated take. Likely not coincidental too with strong NHLPA leadership and a CBA negotiation on the horizon.

Anyhew, I've veered this thread off course. Appreciate your insights.

The problem with the bolded is that too many player are working under the paradigm that the more I get the more it lifts everyone's boat. Their agents seem to feed on this. Swayman may well feel he should squeeze every penny he can out of the Bruins. But he is not doing it for other players. If he takes an extra million that is a million that is not available for his team mates or even everyone else in the league as there is a capped pot locally and a fixed pot globally.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The problem with the bolded is that too many player are working under the paradigm that the more I get the more it lifts everyone's boat. Their agents seem to feed on this. Swayman may well feel he should squeeze every penny he can out of the Bruins. But he is not doing it for other players. If he takes an extra million that is a million that is not available for his team mates or even everyone else in the league as there is a capped pot locally and a fixed pot globally.

Yup, agents are increasingly saying the league's upper salary threshold is being artificially kept low with player compromises. NHLPA has a strong labour leader now and everyone has watched record setting franchise fees and league revenue growth. Sure more teams, more jobs. But a modern workforce seems to have growing eyes wide open in terms of their situations salary wise or geographic. Likely to get squeezed are expensive middle support guys (like Yamamoto) and fringe roster which both likely see increasing movement and lower financial return on limited ability.

Interesting times. I'm interested to hear the alleged interview in which Saravalli is projecting Draisaitl to not take a team styled discount that helps essential roster quality to run at winning a Cup.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Yup, agents are increasingly saying the league's upper salary threshold is being artificially kept low with player compromises. NHLPA has a strong labour leader now and everyone has watched record setting franchise fees and league revenue growth. Sure more teams, more jobs. But a modern workforce seems to have growing eyes wide open in terms of their situations salary wise or geographic. Likely to get squeezed are expensive middle support guys (like Yamamoto) and fringe roster which both likely see increasing movement and lower financial return on limited ability.

Interesting times. I'm interested to hear the alleged interview in which Saravalli is projecting Draisaitl to not take a team styled discount that helps essential roster quality to run at winning a Cup.

I get the feeling there is a long term work stoppage coming when the cba expires at the end of the 25/26 season. PA seems ready for a fight and the league doesn’t seem to have much to negotiate with other then a lockout. Seems like both sides are already digging their heels in and preparing for a big fight

 

[joestevens29]

I get the feeling there is a long term work stoppage coming when the cba expires at the end of the 25/26 season. PA seems ready for a fight and the league doesn’t seem to have much to negotiate with other then a lockout. Seems like both sides are already digging their heels in and preparing for a big fight

NHL just has to threaten non-guaranteed contracts and it'll be a gong show

 

[K1984]

Yup, agents are increasingly saying the league's upper salary threshold is being artificially kept low with player compromises. NHLPA has a strong labour leader now and everyone has watched record setting franchise fees and league revenue growth. Sure more teams, more jobs. But a modern workforce seems to have growing eyes wide open in terms of their situations salary wise or geographic. Likely to get squeezed are expensive middle support guys (like Yamamoto) and fringe roster which both likely see increasing movement and lower financial return on limited ability.

Interesting times. I'm interested to hear the alleged interview in which Saravalli is projecting Draisaitl to not take a team styled discount that helps essential roster quality to run at winning a Cup.

It's been the case for at least a decade now, but the NHLPA acts in the best interests of the top 10% of players almost exclusively. Rules are curated to escalate player salaries fast, but the only players that benefit are the ones that can actually support it with pay.

As you astutely pointed out, Yamamoto, and to an even greater degree, Daniel Sprong are the poster boys of this. They're getting pushed out of the league because the money that they should theoretically be getting paid is being allocated to the big dogs, putting them in a position where they have to massively perform just to get any deal over $1x1. Much better bet to invest in players on ELC than pending RFAs that come with the threat of QO's that are too high, and arbitrators that don't know what they're doing.

The last lockout was very telling, with $10M/yr players like Toews whining about how hard done by he is, all while his colleagues on ELC's and league min deals are losing a substantial amount of the ~$1M per year that they get paid. Difference being those guys are likely to be gonzo before their career earnings even hit $4-5M.