Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[SupremeTeam16]

I was talking about the trade deadline alleged scenario gives a reference point to perceived market value of Broberg and Holloway. It was a top line forward with x2 retention. You contend the return could prospectively had been a 2nd and 3rd round pick on unproven talent. My bad for not being clear on this.

The McLeod trade is the model where young talent that doesn't fit your budget or window roster is flipped for qualified future, non-cap, pedigree talent. Build up a weak pipeline to help goal 1 of a sustaining winning window.

Necas is a reference point to managing relationships and actively problem solving. Of course he's a cornerstone player for them. It's a bet on homegrown talent you know and remedying issues to retain versus losing. He's a no brainer non-risk as an RFA offer sheet because the CBA value is high and likelihood low. Manage your relationships especially strained ones.

I really recommend listening to the interview with Broberg's agent, notably beginning at the 30 minute mark. Really fascinating stuff on how an agent works including re-evaluating a clients career and circumstances all the time. Most especially with restricted free agents.

But as he said, an agent working for his client's best interests, is going to explore all scenarios within the CBA. There's no reason to think Oilers experienced management under a former super agent wouldn't have anticipate this strategy or that there might be real, viable threat with the spending frenzy in new market conditions; a public related trade request by a good young pedigree player coming off quality ice-time in final four Cup competition.

He says that no formal offer was made. They made it known they were looking at $2 million on a one year deal. References LA client Spence signed at $1.5 was price point they imagined might be where it settled if there were no offer sheets. When a formal Oilers offer was made it was at $1.1 million. So with a gap of $900,000 on a prospective 1 year deal, the Oilers had three choices: i. submit a revised offer to try to bridge the gap to a final budget line in the sand they likely had;
ii. explore prospective trade options to understand potential market while also putting potential poachers on notice intent to match;
iii. don't do anything, wait and hope for capitulation (unlike their McLeod contract signing early last August).

Unfortunately the choice of iii. led to Holloway's agent reaching out to Ferris to discuss the negotiation dynamics with the Oilers which led them right into a poison pill double indemnity historic offer sheet. It's reasonable I believe for the Oilers in risk management to project risk of one offer sheet or even two offer sheets given their cap spending priorities and exposure; the changing market conditions of big cap infusion; even public comment by one GM saying offer sheets could be on the table.

I have great respect for you too. I'm a big advocate of Jeff Jackson and the vision he has for this team. But as Ferris lays out how he actively always evaluates and re-evaluates his client's circumstances and will uncover all situations to find best deal for them, I have to believe this is a similar practice that Jackson would utilize and the risk factors missed to control the situation.

Unfortunately the vital facts that we don’t have is the conversations between Jackson and Ferris, really all the information here is coming from one source who seems motivated to get his story out there. Personally I think what’s more likely then Jackson falling asleep on his two most promising youngsters contract negotiations for months, is that Ferris was being less then upfront with his clients willingness to sign with the Oilers as well as his willingness to signing an offer sheet.

I definitely agree with you that they errored in not exploring the trade market for one or both of these players but they wouldn’t of had a lot of time to find a trade and once free agency opened, if the Oilers were shopping Broberg, I’m guessing Armstrong would of sped up his timeline and offersheeted broberg before the Oilers could complete a trade.

I don’t think there was any way Ferris was going to have Broberg sign a contract before July 1, no matter if the Oilers came right to their ask, I’m betting he would of found a way to extend negotiations on term or on issues like deployment. It benefitted Ferris and his client to wait until free agency and it benefited him not to be forthright with Jackson with regard to his clients intentions.

 

[McShogun99]

Unfortunately the vital facts that we don’t have is the conversations between Jackson and Ferris, really all the information here is coming from one source who seems motivated to get his story out there. Personally I think what’s more likely then Jackson falling asleep on his two most promising youngsters contract negotiations for months, is that Ferris was being less then upfront with his clients willingness to sign with the Oilers as well as his willingness to signing an offer sheet.

I definitely agree with you that they errored in not exploring the trade market for one or both of these players but they wouldn’t of had a lot of time to find a trade and once free agency opened, if the Oilers were shopping Broberg, I’m guessing Armstrong would of sped up his timeline and offersheeted broberg before the Oilers could complete a trade.

I don’t think there was any way Ferris was going to have Broberg sign a contract before July 1, no matter if the Oilers came right to their ask, I’m betting he would of found a way to extend negotiations on term or on issues like deployment. It benefitted Ferris and his client to wait until free agency and it benefited him not to be forthright with Jackson with regard to his clients intentions.

I think it has more to do with trying to force Broberg and Holloway to sign low, 1-2 year deals since they had no arbitration rights and teams never give ridiculous offer sheets to mid level players. The Holloway offer sheer is a slight over pay but the Broberg one is ridiculous.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I am curious where you heard that the deal was with double retention. All I can find is that the three names were talked about. One sight said that the cost would be Broberg, the Oilers first and and something like Bourgault for Buch at 50%. Some say that Buchnevich was unwilling to waive. Others say the Oilers baulked. But I can't even find anything that says the deal was all that close. Moreover, if there was double retention some other team would have had to be compensated.

Where I am in this is that even if you are conscious of the possibility of an OS, what can you do about it other than give the player more than you want to in advance. Even if they knew it was a possibility, it is still reasonable to proceed by weighing the risk of the loss, given possible contingencies, against the consequences of having to over spend to keep the players.

Bottom line for me, in hindsight I suspect it was going to be very hard to keep Broberg, but I do believe they could have perhaps been able to get Holloway done if they were more proactive. That said, I honestly don't know what the consequences of even a small overspend on Holloway to say $1.5M might have been given where they are right now. In particular I am not all that sure that the team would have been in a better position to win in the next two years had they done that.

I can't remember where or likely find it whether via a verbal media speculation or online. The 50% retention would have been on a $5.8 million cap hit at deadline and then a full season to follow. Pretty manageable. I'd never seen any speculation citing Bourgeault or the three first round equivalencies you mention. That's higher price tag than Ekholm, a better player at a more difficult position to acquire elite talent.

There's even a business linkage between Ferris and Jackson with one year overlap at Orr Hockey Group. And Ferris indicated that he helped with the McDavid exceptional player request leveraging his experience. That's enough time in close business quarters to have an understanding of the agent's aggressive approach in client relationships and deal making. Reasonable to conclude some warning signs with the aggressive trade request/demand this season that this relationship and negotiation needed to be managed.

What I proposed previously is active discussion with the young players. A faster move to your best offer (if that's $1.5 million as a second offer or up to their $2 million if fixed) then assess if the gap is bridged and signing done. If not, movement to explore trade scenarios to mitigate the cap vulnerability your July 1 priority has exposed.

I've mentioned my roster and cap situation would involved Broberg at 3LD on a cheaper deal than veteran Kulak. Kulak moved to 2RD with full training camp to adapt to this team need. Ceci moved to make roster and cap room. Hard to find quality young NHL defensemen. Faith in deep playoff competition that Broberg can handle support minutes and a short/mid-term succession plan with an age 34 Ekholm. Holloway show some contract movement within your risk tolerance and same applies with more benefit negotiating against an inexperienced agent.

The Oilers choices led to being priced out of a bull free agent market. The signs of concern were there and the agent known to them. Choosing to think this could be slow cooked misread alot of signals. It still forced an unforeseen reactive pivot which included Ceci's move-out of a veteran RD, their whole right side PKers, and a roster hole to replace quality 2RD minutes with need to burn up more money and assets for likely the hardest position to find in hockey and that carries a premium of 10% for veteran top 4 right shot defenders.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Unfortunately the vital facts that we don’t have is the conversations between Jackson and Ferris, really all the information here is coming from one source who seems motivated to get his story out there. Personally I think what’s more likely then Jackson falling asleep on his two most promising youngsters contract negotiations for months, is that Ferris was being less then upfront with his clients willingness to sign with the Oilers as well as his willingness to signing an offer sheet.

I definitely agree with you that they errored in not exploring the trade market for one or both of these players but they wouldn’t of had a lot of time to find a trade and once free agency opened, if the Oilers were shopping Broberg, I’m guessing Armstrong would of sped up his timeline and offersheeted broberg before the Oilers could complete a trade.

I don’t think there was any way Ferris was going to have Broberg sign a contract before July 1, no matter if the Oilers came right to their ask, I’m betting he would of found a way to extend negotiations on term or on issues like deployment. It benefitted Ferris and his client to wait until free agency and it benefited him not to be forthright with Jackson with regard to his clients intentions.

The game changed on July 1 when all CBA avenues open up. No formal offer was tendered so nothing for players to respond to.

Had the Oilers actively negotiated with their two homegrown guys after July 1 they could have shortened the timeline in terms of risk exposure. Have your line in the sand budget threshold determined (assumed they would have). Formalize a second offer or even suggest a best offer and see if leads to good will negotiation or bluff. Access and move to informal trade calls to assess your options and work to be ahead of prospective offer sheets. Note, it sounds like the first formal offer didn't come until the mid-August Hlinka tournament. Early conversations were verbal back and forth.

Just posted that Ferris and Jackson worked together for a year at Orr Hockey Group and Ferris helped on the McDavid exceptional status request. Ample direct time to know the business mindset of Ferris and likelihood to explore all CBA options available, and as permitted. Add on the know in season trade request/demand by Ferris which again would be an agent tactic familiar to Jackson.

It benefited Ferris to wait. It also would have benefited the Oilers to invest in active, formalized negotiation early to assess likelihood if they could find a contract solution or if they needed to explore their options of prospectively trading one or both young NHL players with the shine of final four playoff competition still resonating.

Nothing prevents the Oilers from sharing their side of the story. After all they have monetized their stories through paid streaming service. But that also exposes some embarrassing questions like why did you wait until mid-August to tender your first, initial offer?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The game changed on July 1 when all CBA avenues open up. No formal offer was tendered so nothing for players to respond to.

Had the Oilers actively negotiated with their two homegrown guys after July 1 they could have shortened the timeline in terms of risk exposure. Have your line in the sand budget threshold determined (assumed they would have). Formalize a second offer or even suggest a best offer and see if leads to good will negotiation or bluff. Access and move to informal trade calls to assess your options and work to be ahead of prospective offer sheets. Note, it sounds like the first formal offer didn't come until the mid-August Hlinka tournament. Early conversations were verbal back and forth.

Just posted that Ferris and Jackson worked together for a year at Orr Hockey Group and Ferris helped on the McDavid exceptional status request. Ample direct time to know the business mindset of Ferris and likelihood to explore all CBA options available, and as permitted. Add on the know in season trade request/demand by Ferris which again would be an agent tactic familiar to Jackson.

It benefited Ferris to wait. It also would have benefited the Oilers to invest in active, formalized negotiation early to assess likelihood if they could find a contract solution or if they needed to explore their options of prospectively trading one or both young NHL players with the shine of final four playoff competition still resonating.

Nothing prevents the Oilers from sharing their side of the story. After all they have monetized their stories through paid streaming service. But that also exposes some embarrassing questions like why did you wait until mid-August to tender your first, initial offer?

Yeah it probably doesn’t benefit the players agent at all to make it look like the oilers were the issue

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Yeah it probably doesn’t benefit the players agent at all to make it look like the oilers were the issue

His interviews are all pretty reasoned. Here's another one you can listen to and gage if he's blaming the team or favourable market conditions and a team that made different choices to prioritize with very finite cap space: Philip Broberg’s agent Darren Ferris – 101 ESPN

Ferris still has to work in the league and with all organizations including the one he negotiated a long-term deal with for Darnell Nurse. The Oilers have accepted this as a business decision with choices they made.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

The game changed on July 1 when all CBA avenues open up. No formal offer was tendered so nothing for players to respond to.

Had the Oilers actively negotiated with their two homegrown guys after July 1 they could have shortened the timeline in terms of risk exposure. Have your line in the sand budget threshold determined (assumed they would have). Formalize a second offer or even suggest a best offer and see if leads to good will negotiation or bluff. Access and move to informal trade calls to assess your options and work to be ahead of prospective offer sheets. Note, it sounds like the first formal offer didn't come until the mid-August Hlinka tournament. Early conversations were verbal back and forth.

Just posted that Ferris and Jackson worked together for a year at Orr Hockey Group and Ferris helped on the McDavid exceptional status request. Ample direct time to know the business mindset of Ferris and likelihood to explore all CBA options available, and as permitted. Add on the know in season trade request/demand by Ferris which again would be an agent tactic familiar to Jackson.

It benefited Ferris to wait. It also would have benefited the Oilers to invest in active, formalized negotiation early to assess likelihood if they could find a contract solution or if they needed to explore their options of prospectively trading one or both young NHL players with the shine of final four playoff competition still resonating.

Nothing prevents the Oilers from sharing their side of the story. After all they have monetized their stories through paid streaming service. But that also exposes some embarrassing questions like why did you wait until mid-August to tender your first, initial offer?

Well again, we don’t know what was said between Jackson/Ferris because whatever Ferris was saying during informal exploratory negotiations would have shaped Jackson’s view of how critical the situation was. So if Ferris made it seem like they weren’t a chasm apart (I mean how can you be when you’re negotiating between 1-2M) and that an offer sheet wasn’t a serious consideration for them at the time Jackson probably wouldn’t feel the need to trade him or push a hard negotiation if he felt like informal talks were moving forward, let’s not act like Jackson is the only executive in history to leave non arb rfa negotiations later into the summer, even with the threat of offer sheets. If Jackson was being led to believe that they were making progress he wouldn’t feel the need to explore a trade, which if he did, could of meant Ferris client ended up in a less favourable situation. Before July 1 it was in Ferris best interest to drag negotiations out to see if an offer sheet was coming and after July 1 when there was that offer sheet coming from STL, he was never going to advise his client to sign with the Oilers because he knew he had this deal lined up for him but in order to maximize the chances that the Oilers wouldn’t match he had to buy time for him and Armstrong to convince Holloway to sign as well as get past the deadline where the Oilers could trigger a second buyout window. The best way to buy time would have been to lead Jackson to believe that negotiations were moving forward so that Jackson doesn’t get spooked and trade Broberg to a team potentially less desirable then Edmonton but who had the cap flexibility to match any offer sheet that still may have come from Armstrong.

It’s very telling that Ferris feels the need to rush out and get his side of the negotiations into the media as much as possible, when does an agent ever do that? On the other hand the Oilers have nothing to gain from publicly calling him out on a bad faith negotiation since they’ll almost assuredly have to deal with him at some point in the future so instead they’ll just privately take note of this dealing for future interactions.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Well again, we don’t know what was said between Jackson/Ferris because whatever Ferris was saying during informal exploratory negotiations would have shaped Jackson’s view of how critical the situation was. So if Ferris made it seem like they weren’t a chasm apart (I mean how can you be when you’re negotiating between 1-2M) and that an offer sheet wasn’t a serious consideration for them at the time Jackson probably wouldn’t feel the need to trade him or push a hard negotiation if he felt like informal talks were moving forward, let’s not act like Jackson is the only executive in history to leave non arb rfa negotiations later into the summer, even with the threat of offer sheets. If Jackson was being led to believe that they were making progress he wouldn’t feel the need to explore a trade, which if he did, could of meant Ferris client ended up in a less favourable situation. Before July 1 it was in Ferris best interest to drag negotiations out to see if an offer sheet was coming and after July 1 when there was that offer sheet coming from STL, he was never going to advise his client to sign with the Oilers because he knew he had this deal lined up for him but in order to maximize the chances that the Oilers wouldn’t match he had to buy time for him and Armstrong to convince Holloway to sign as well as get past the deadline where the Oilers could trigger a second buyout window. The best way to buy time would have been to lead Jackson to believe that negotiations were moving forward so that Jackson doesn’t get spooked and trade Broberg to a team potentially less desirable then Edmonton but who had the cap flexibility to match any offer sheet that still may have come from Armstrong.

It’s very telling that Ferris feels the need to rush out and get his side of the negotiations into the media as much as possible, when does an agent ever do that? On the other hand the Oilers have nothing to gain from publicly calling him out on a bad faith negotiation since they’ll almost assuredly have to deal with him at some point in the future so instead they’ll just privately take note of this dealing for future interactions.

We don't even know if it was Jackson who had passing verbal chat with the agents. One of the Ferris interviews mentions meeting with the Oilers's 'contract guy' (likely Bill Scott) at Hlinka as the first face-to-face with the first contract offer tendered shortly after.

The 'chasm' exchanged was $900,000 based on Oilers only tabled offer and the apparent $2 million verbal ask by the Broberg camp. Unfortunately it appears the Oilers waited until mid-August to formalize their first offer. Jackson's also not a babe in the woods. He's a deeply experienced negotiator and strategic thinker able to ferret out contract situations - he was on that side of the table with over a hundred million dollars of contracts under management.

All appearances point to the Oilers decision to slow cook their negotiation with their two in-house young NHL talents. It took until the Hlinka tournament for Armstrong to get his pick back. That's a prolonged period of time with nothing even papered by the Oilers.

Of course people are rushing to understand how a historic successful first ever double offer sheet was pulled off. The Oilers aren't talking because they are on the wrong side of its history. Beyond Edmonton, it's a big business story and the agent is obliging in talking to media. The Oilers knew the player relationship was damaged. Did nothing. All signs reports to no formalized offer until mid-August. An alleged gap of offer under a million dollars. Did nothing until the bull market moved on their vulnerability.

Again, the Oilers experienced management understand this was a business negotiation. They don't have to like it but there is no evidence the spirit and rules of the CBA were violated. No evidence of bad faith negotiation. If you don't paper your intention, it's just talk. Moreso a missed reading of a variety of signals beginning with the players themselves. Jackson and Ferris actually worked together so there's not even an excuse of not knowing the professional person across the table and his approach to maximizing value for his clients.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

We don't even know if it was Jackson who had passing verbal chat with the agents. One of the Ferris interviews mentions meeting with the Oilers's 'contract guy' (likely Bill Scott) at Hlinka as the first face-to-face with the first contract offer tendered shortly after.

The 'chasm' exchanged was $900,000 based on Oilers only tabled offer and the apparent $2 million verbal ask by the Broberg camp. Unfortunately it appears the Oilers waited until mid-August to formalize their first offer. Jackson's also not a babe in the woods. He's a deeply experienced negotiator and strategic thinker able to ferret out contract situations - he was on that side of the table with over a hundred million dollars of contracts under management.

All appearances point to the Oilers decision to slow cook their negotiation with their two in-house young NHL talents. It took until the Hlinka tournament for Armstrong to get his pick back. That's a prolonged period of time with nothing even papered by the Oilers.

Of course people are rushing to understand how a historic successful first ever double offer sheet was pulled off. The Oilers aren't talking because they are on the wrong side of its history. Beyond Edmonton, it's a big business story and the agent is obliging in talking to media. The Oilers knew the player relationship was damaged. Did nothing. All signs reports to no formalized offer until mid-August. An alleged gap of offer under a million dollars. Did nothing until the bull market moved on their vulnerability.

Again, the Oilers experienced management understand this was a business negotiation. They don't have to like it but there is no evidence the spirit and rules of the CBA were violated. No evidence of bad faith negotiation. If you don't paper your intention, it's just talk. Moreso a missed reading of a variety of signals beginning with the players themselves. Jackson and Ferris actually worked together so there's not even an excuse of not knowing the professional person and his approach to maximizing value for his clients.

Armstrong didn’t get his pick back until the time he did because it would have tipped his hand before all the pieces were in place for his scheme.

Like you said, Jackson has been on both sides of the table, he’s not some inexperienced player and I think it’s highly unlikely that him and his team didn’t pour over every scenario and possible outcome to gauge their exposure and they just completely missed this.

I think the far more plausible story is that they were led to believe that the relationship and negotiation was in a better place than it actually was because it benefitted the player side to do so.

At the end of the day, Ferris wasn’t signing before July 1 under any circumstance and the Oilers were never going to foolishly overpay a question mark player, even though they showed that they could have if they wanted to. If they pushed harder on negotiations maybe they would of sniffed out Ferris bad faith earlier and started exploring a trade but at that point Armstrong likely just moved up his timetable, got his pick back and had the offer sheet signed, cutting off Jackson trade negotiations at the legs and forcing him to match a risky contract or take the compensation just the same as the decision ended up being in the end. Really the best decision the Oilers could have made in hindsight would have been to try and trade Broberg at the draft.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Armstrong didn’t get his pick back until the time he did because it would have tipped his hand before all the pieces were in place for his scheme.

Like you said, Jackson has been on both sides of the table, he’s not some inexperienced player and I think it’s highly unlikely that him and his team didn’t pour over every scenario and possible outcome to gauge their exposure and they just completely missed this.

I think the far more plausible story is that they were led to believe that the relationship and negotiation was in a better place than it actually was because it benefitted the player side to do so.

At the end of the day, Ferris wasn’t signing before July 1 under any circumstance and the Oilers were never going to foolishly overpay a question mark player, even though they showed that they could have if they wanted to. If they pushed harder on negotiations maybe they would of sniffed out Ferris bad faith earlier and started exploring a trade but at that point Armstrong likely just moved up his timetable, got his pick back and had the offer sheet signed, cutting off Jackson trade negotiations at the legs and forcing him to match a risky contract or take the compensation just the same as the decision ended up being in the end. Really the best decision the Oilers could have made in hindsight would have been to try and trade Broberg at the draft.

Yup, you're right. They needed to get through a possible buy-out window to eliminate an exit path for Edmonton.

The Oilers didn't tender an offer before July 1 or apparently until after a face-to-face meeting at Hlinka in mid-August. There was zero incentive for Broberg & Holloway to sign early and impossible to do so if the organization doesn't paper something to formalize the negotiation.

Regarding Armstrong he was public in June about prospectively using offer sheets so his prospective intent was already in public domain. His LTIR of Krug in mid-July pushed available cap and an open top 4 LD hole. He had alleged trade deadline discussion with the Oilers involving the two vulnerable young NHL ready talent. Oilers missed the signs.

If you don't table a formal offer until mid-August while being vulnerable with cap exposure, bad things are possible. Seems a real missed opportunity to show faith and belief in your team's known young guys with formal offers coming after their individual and team success in the playoffs. Use your control runway up front to get clear sight on player intent and be ahead of prospective vulnerability in a bull free agent market. Had they had a handle on Holloway and his inexperienced agent and showed good faith with a fair offer early, maybe this gets one signed along the lines of McLeod last off-season. Then you can manage the Broberg situation which was always going to require a more nuanced negotiation given their well publicized issue.

But once the market acted on Oilers vulnerability the ship sailed on cheap, in-house talent and Oilers were forced to spin into damage control.

 

[Fourier]

The Leafs have $1.275M in cap space on 21 contracts with Nick Robertson asking for a trade and yet there seems to be no fear of an OS or urgency to get a deal done. Robertson is 12 days older than Holloway and probably slightly more established right now. There literally have been dozens of such cases over the years that typically always resolve themselves in favour of the team. I suspect that much of this is Armstrong simply wanting Broberg much mcuh more than the Oilers did and git Holloway involved as a pawn.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Yup, you're right. They needed to get through a possible buy-out window to eliminate an exit path for Edmonton.

The Oilers didn't tender an offer before July 1 or apparently until after a face-to-face meeting at Hlinka in mid-August. There was zero incentive for Broberg & Holloway to sign early and impossible to do so if the organization doesn't paper something to formalize the negotiation.

Regarding Armstrong he was public in June about prospectively using offer sheets so his prospective intent was already in public domain. His LTIR of Krug in mid-July pushed available cap and an open top 4 LD hole. He had alleged trade deadline discussion with the Oilers involving the two vulnerable young NHL ready talent. Oilers missed the signs.

If you don't table a formal offer until mid-August while being vulnerable with cap exposure, bad things are possible. Seems a real missed opportunity to show faith and belief in your team's known young guys with formal offers coming after their individual and team success in the playoffs. Use your control runway up front to get clear sight on player intent and be ahead of prospective vulnerability in a bull free agent market. Had they had a handle on Holloway and his inexperienced agent and showed good faith with a fair offer early, maybe this gets one signed along the lines of McLeod last off-season. Then you can manage the Broberg situation which was always going to require a more nuanced negotiation given their well publicized issue.

But once the market acted on Oilers vulnerability the ship sailed on cheap, in-house talent and Oilers were forced to spin into damage control.

Would you say that extending a qualifying offer is a formal offer?

Because the Oilers would have had to do that in order to maintain the players rights. So there goes Ferris story about the team not extending their first offer until mid August. The whole “no formal offer” crap is just more Ferris spin. Much of these negotiations are done verbally, if a team has been told a player won’t agree to terms that have been negotiated they aren’t going to bother sending over a contract they know isn’t likely to be signed. The key factor is the feedback they were receiving from the agent on where negotiations were and once again, I’ll say that it was to the agents benefit to draw out negotiations as long as possible without spooking the other side into exploring trade action in order to ensure an outrageous offer sheet perfectly timed to maximize the chances it wouldn’t be matched.

The Oilers could of been more proactive exploring the trade market but at the end of the day they got exploited by a pretty greasy move put together by a player agent and gm in a situation where gm’s have usually had an understanding, and why these types of offer sheets have been almost non existent. Which is why they’ve been defending themselves with the “well it’s perfectly legal within the cba” shtick.

 

[K1984]

Would you say that extending a qualifying offer is a formal offer?

Because the Oilers would have had to do that in order to maintain the players rights. So there goes Ferris story about the team not extending their first offer until mid August. The whole “no formal offer” crap is just more Ferris spin. Much of these negotiations are done verbally, if a team has been told a player won’t agree to terms that have been negotiated they aren’t going to bother sending over a contract they know isn’t likely to be signed. The key factor is the feedback they were receiving from the agent on where negotiations were and once again, I’ll say that it was to the agents benefit to draw out negotiations as long as possible without spooking the other side into exploring trade action in order to ensure an outrageous offer sheet perfectly timed to maximize the chances it wouldn’t be matched.

The Oilers could of been more proactive exploring the trade market but at the end of the day they got exploited by a pretty greasy move put together by a player agent and gm in a situation where gm’s have usually had an understanding, and why these types of offer sheets have been almost non existent. Which is why they’ve been defending themselves with the “well it’s perfectly legal within the cba” shtick.

“Formal offer” is an interesting choice of words too. That probably wouldn’t technically be possible if a call was put in to Ferris and he responded with “thanks, but we have sheet offers we need to explore first.”

Oilers almost certainly had $4M as a high, high end of what they would have probably signed the package of the two of them for. If Ferris is talking about offer sheets, what’s the point of submitting a “formal offer” for far less?

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Would you say that extending a qualifying offer is a formal offer?

Because the Oilers would have had to do that in order to maintain the players rights. So there goes Ferris story about the team not extending their first offer until mid August. The whole “no formal offer” crap is just more Ferris spin. Much of these negotiations are done verbally, if a team has been told a player won’t agree to terms that have been negotiated they aren’t going to bother sending over a contract they know isn’t likely to be signed. The key factor is the feedback they were receiving from the agent on where negotiations were and once again, I’ll say that it was to the agents benefit to draw out negotiations as long as possible without spooking the other side into exploring trade action in order to ensure an outrageous offer sheet perfectly timed to maximize the chances it wouldn’t be matched.

The Oilers could of been more proactive exploring the trade market but at the end of the day they got exploited by a pretty greasy move put together by a player agent and gm in a situation where gm’s have usually had an understanding, and why these types of offer sheets have been almost non existent. Which is why they’ve been defending themselves with the “well it’s perfectly legal within the cba” shtick.

That's on my faulty interpretation. Mea culpa.

But regardless, there's nothing stopping a team off a Cup Final run from making a better offer prior to July 1. Reinforce value for their contribution in it and set a positive stage for open market negotiation that begins July 1. Get ahead of the market and your team's impending vulnerability with focus on external and retained veteran haircut deals.

The Oilers knew the Broberg relationship was damaged. It wasn't a surprise to anyone. And they knew that July 1 all teams could talk to restricted free agents. Unfortunately their blind spot was Holloway and his inexperienced camp in which inaction led the neofyte agent to reach out to Ferris and the situation was set in motion for a double poison pill offer sheet.

Back to Jackson's deep agency experience and working relationship with Ferris, there shouldn't be any surprise the agent doing his job would pursue all avenues to maximize his clients value. Especially one with a damaged relationship with his team.

I'm not sure why you feel there was bad faith negotiation or a false collusion. The actions were taken filling the void granted by CBA effective July 1. Not acting on Holloway drove the players camp into their opportunity to maximize salary and flexibility on a second option to work. Armstrong had a public need for a top 4LD with Krug, he told his local media all things were on the table to improve his team including offer sheets, and targeted in on a damaged relationship player that fit his need and already piqued his interest at trade deadline. Oilers tried to slow cook two negotiations into late August with cap vulnerability reality also over their head. They got burned with an old model with new market conditions that significant cash infusion has wrought.

It's a very tough, bitter pill. Regarding how the Oilers present this historic gaffe, I fully anticipate a an Oilers pay-per-view free agency episode that celebrates the great and busy free agency start; showcases a Draisaitl contract signing; and starts with a Bowman and executive team with metaphorical sleeves rolled up reacting to the imposed market driven pricing and celebrating getting Polzkolzin for a 4th and Emberton qualified dice roll in the Ceci deal.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The Leafs have $1.275M in cap space on 21 contracts with Nick Robertson asking for a trade and yet there seems to be no fear of an OS or urgency to get a deal done. Robertson is 12 days older than Holloway and probably slightly more established right now. There literally have been dozens of such cases over the years that typically always resolve themselves in favour of the team. I suspect that much of this is Armstrong simply wanting Broberg much mcuh more than the Oilers did and git Holloway involved as a pawn.

Unfortunately there's also a now precedent of a successful double offer sheet. The prize was always Broberg and worth a push for a 6'3" age 23 puck moving defenseman. Why waste bullets on a plentiful resource like cheap wingers?

Holloway made out fine with eyes open to an inflationary offer and opportunity. Potential trend to watch is young players asserting their situations to get paid and choose where they live - setting up financial security over winning.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

That's on my faulty interpretation. Mea culpa.

But regardless, there's nothing stopping a team off a Cup Final run from making a better offer prior to July 1. Reinforce value for their contribution in it and set a positive stage for open market negotiation that begins July 1. Get ahead of the market and your team's impending vulnerability with focus on external and retained veteran haircut deals.

The Oilers knew the Broberg relationship was damaged. It wasn't a surprise to anyone. And they knew that July 1 all teams could talk to restricted free agents. Unfortunately their blind spot was Holloway and his inexperienced camp in which inaction led the neofyte agent to reach out to Ferris and the situation was set in motion for a double poison pill offer sheet.

Back to Jackson's deep agency experience and working relationship with Ferris, there shouldn't be any surprise the agent doing his job would pursue all avenues to maximize his clients value. Especially one with a damaged relationship with his team.

I'm not sure why you feel there was bad faith negotiation or a false collusion. The actions were taken filling the void granted by CBA effective July 1. Not acting on Holloway drove the players camp into their opportunity to maximize salary and flexibility on a second option to work. Armstrong had a public need for a top 4LD with Krug, he told his local media all things were on the table to improve his team including offer sheets, and targeted in on a damaged relationship player that fit his need and already piqued his interest at trade deadline. Oilers tried to slow cook two negotiations into late August with cap vulnerability reality also over their head. They got burned with an old model with new market conditions that significant cash infusion has wrought.

It's a very tough, bitter pill. Regarding how the Oilers present this historic gaffe, I fully anticipate a an Oilers pay-per-view free agency episode that celebrates the great and busy free agency start; showcases a Draisaitl contract signing; and starts with a Bowman and executive team with metaphorical sleeves rolled up reacting to the imposed market driven pricing and celebrating getting Polzkolzin for a 4th and Emberton qualified dice roll in the Ceci deal.

Clearly the desired outcome for the Oilers was to have Broberg signed but if they felt the relationship was beyond repair then I’m sure they would of explored trade options but likely the feedback they were getting from Ferris was that the player was open to extending and that negotiations were moving in a positive direction, because otherwise Ferris would of risked the very real possibility of the Oilers moving Broberg to less desirable situation then STL and that situation may have been where the acquiring team likely would of had more flexibility to fend off an offer sheet.

Holloway is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, because the Oilers showed they could create enough cap space to keep Broberg but they just didn’t think he was worth that cap hit and I agree with that decision. It really comes down to two questions for me, did Broberg have any intention of signing before July 1, and I believe the answer is no because I think no matter what the Oilers offered they were always going to wait to see if an offer sheet materialized. The second question is if they should have matched the offer sheet and my answer on that is also no. Too high of risk for a contending team to pay that much money over 2 seasons to a mostly unproven player.

The teams only options were trade him in season when he couldn’t even play well enough to be a regular and his value would likely of not been much more then the 2,3 and prospect they ended up with, or trade him at the draft which in hindsight was probably the best option but at the time if you feel like the feedback you’re getting from the agent is positive and you really don’t want to trade the player then that would be a hard deal to try and make in that time frame or the last option is trade him after July 1 which if you started shopping Broberg around the league Armstrong likely just gets his pick back at that moment from Dubas and puts his plan into motion with or without Holloway on board, at which point you end up right back at question two and if it’s a smart move for a contending team with cap constraints to spend 4.6M on a player who has been unable to establish himself.

As an aside, I appreciate the discussion and obviously we have differing points of views on the unknowns of the discussions and negotiations and details we will likely never know for sure. I think we can both agree that a mistake was made by the Oilers but disagree on the information they were basing those decisions on. End of the day I believe Ferris when he says he’s going to do whatever is best for his client and in this situation I think dragging out negotiations with the Oilers without triggering trade talk in order to buy time to maximize the likeliness of their plan working was in the best interest of his client.

 

[benum]

July 1 the Oil were working on top 6 scoring wingers coming in (which they did x2) and bringing back FA centre/wingers that played great in the finals (which they did x3). I can see a scenario where they thought the important RFA (Broberg) was in negotiations and would be back at <$2M per. If I had to guess, Broberg was still pissed at being delayed and the Agent saw a way to get something closer to $8M (and it was even better!) on an offer sheet. So Team Broberg probably told the Oil what they wanted to hear over the summer while all this juggling was going on with an eye to the OS $ prize. All above board and within the rules, but the Oil would have traded him for something better if they knew he wasn’t going to sign at <$2M and the OS was going to be $1 less than a 1st round Comp. IMHO

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Clearly the desired outcome for the Oilers was to have Broberg signed but if they felt the relationship was beyond repair then I’m sure they would of explored trade options but likely the feedback they were getting from Ferris was that the player was open to extending and that negotiations were moving in a positive direction, because otherwise Ferris would of risked the very real possibility of the Oilers moving Broberg to less desirable situation then STL and that situation may have been where the acquiring team likely would of had more flexibility to fend off an offer sheet.

Holloway is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, because the Oilers showed they could create enough cap space to keep Broberg but they just didn’t think he was worth that cap hit and I agree with that decision. It really comes down to two questions for me, did Broberg have any intention of signing before July 1, and I believe the answer is no because I think no matter what the Oilers offered they were always going to wait to see if an offer sheet materialized. The second question is if they should have matched the offer sheet and my answer on that is also no. Too high of risk for a contending team to pay that much money over 2 seasons to a mostly unproven player.

The teams only options were trade him in season when he couldn’t even play well enough to be a regular and his value would likely of not been much more then the 2,3 and prospect they ended up with, or trade him at the draft which in hindsight was probably the best option but at the time if you feel like the feedback you’re getting from the agent is positive and you really don’t want to trade the player then that would be a hard deal to try and make in that time frame or the last option is trade him after July 1 which if you started shopping Broberg around the league Armstrong likely just gets his pick back at that moment from Dubas and puts his plan into motion with or without Holloway on board, at which point you end up right back at question two and if it’s a smart move for a contending team with cap constraints to spend 4.6M on a player who has been unable to establish himself.

As an aside, I appreciate the discussion and obviously we have differing points of views on the unknowns of the discussions and negotiations and details we will likely never know for sure. I think we can both agree that a mistake was made by the Oilers but disagree on the information they were basing those decisions on. End of the day I believe Ferris when he says he’s going to do whatever is best for his client and in this situation I think dragging out negotiations with the Oilers without triggering trade talk in order to buy time to maximize the likeliness of their plan working was in the best interest of his client.

Unfortunately the market changed on July 1 and the Oilers didn't show signs of prioritizing Broberg's signing. Unlike how they secured McLeod early August last year with a surprising offer over $2 million aav.

They've shown willingness and ability to sign a young player. Reasonable precedent with McLeod. So the question is why they didn't act with more urgency for a big future piece with a known contentious relationship and sputtered in spurts of inconsistent deployment on a team with wild performance swings and 3 coaches in recent history. The Oilers management group is deeply experience with both sides of player negotiation and know directly that good agents both protect their players and sole responsibility is to negotiate best financial terms for careers that are short on average. And with young players especially who may never realize their draft potential. Ferris worked the system and found a willing buyer in the bull market who believed in Broberg, had roster space and dollars for the player, and rolled it into an aggressive low-ball offer. Doubling down on a second guy in similar circumstances to create double jeopardy for the cap stretched Oilers.

Ferris's only responsibility is to look after his clients needs. One of his interviews he mentions fielding offer sheet interests for Mitch Marner and the client chose not to sign as it was perceived the Leafs negotiation was showing ability for both sides to form agreement. Unfortunately with the player and Oilers disconnect around usage and even future with a LD corp stacked with quality trade pieces, it's not unreasonable to think a brighter financial and opportunity situation lay elsewhere.

To your questions clearly why would Broberg sign before July 1? The second question is an obvious no once the Oilers lost control and the market filled it with a perfectly priced price point and two year term. Was my immediate comment after seeing the offer sheet amounts.

The consequences are a loss of two talented young players. It's more than fair to ask how could this happen and timeline with no action until mid-August on your talented young players opens the door to criticism. Said previously no one and no organization is infallible. The consequence though in this situation is significant.

Pretty decent discussion and I can appreciate differing viewpoints being expressed. Little soft at times when it deflected into character questions for a young player who wasn't shown alot of rope to play through mistakes (we've watched Bouchard mature fantastically once he got a rock solid Ekholm, and even Keith before him, as partners). The organization was too volatile and the natural sacrifice is young players. I'd worry more about a guy content to draw an NHL pay check and eat popcorn in the press box. Reasonable to then questions one's future when the path forward isn't clear.

This board is about good, smart discussion and acknowledging there are different ways to view situations. Time to move on!

 

[Fourier]

Unfortunately there's also a now precedent of a successful double offer sheet. The prize was always Broberg and worth a push for a 6'3" age 23 puck moving defenseman. Why waste bullets on a plentiful resource like cheap wingers?

Holloway made out fine with eyes open to an inflationary offer and opportunity. Potential trend to watch is young players asserting their situations to get paid and choose where they live - setting up financial security over winning.

I can't see it being a trend yet. It is too damaging to salary planning to be paying guys like this based on a threat. Teams know that they need to prioritize stars and those stars always have many more opportunities to move on than guys like Broberg and Holloway. So I suspect teams will simply see losing such players in the rare instances it happens as the cost of doing business.

 

[TFHockey]

I realize that the Blues sent the Oilers a minor prospect and a 3rd after Broberg and Holloway were not matched. However, if I were the Oilers GM, I'd prepare for the day when Edmonton can return the favor to our dear friends in St. Louis.

 

[Canovin]

I realize that the Blues sent the Oilers a minor prospect and a 3rd after Broberg and Holloway were not matched. However, if I were the Oilers GM, I'd prepare for the day when Edmonton can return the favor to our dear friends in St. Louis.

Send an offersheet to Dvorsky for 9M x 5 years in 3 years

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I can't see it being a trend yet. It is too damaging to salary planning to be paying guys like this based on a threat. Teams know that they need to prioritize stars and those stars always have many more opportunities to move on than guys like Broberg and Holloway. So I suspect teams will simply see losing such players in the rare instances it happens as the cost of doing business.

I meant a broader trend of young players utilizing all system means to pick their destination versus passively accepting. More my frustration broadly of a team like Winnipeg dealing with a top prospect who won't sign because putting on the uniform 'didn't feel right.' Gauthier not signing in Philadelphia. The out migration in Calgary with players like Hanifan, Tkachuk, Fox. It's hard enough for fringe markets to attract and retain talent. Lindros once bucked the system and was vilified through his career.

The Broberg Holloway situation is interesting because it is two young pedigree talents choosing opportunity and setting financial security over a winning environment. Opposite of seeing veterans carve off some salary with their financial security established to chase a Cup. Offer sheets are an inflationary tool so it won't become common place especially after the Oilers precedent setting situation for a meagre return. So yes agree teams likely won't get caught again. Won't be weaponized for fringe players.

 

[McShogun99]

I would just go with the death by a 1000 paper cuts offer sheets to STL.

Just offer their RFA's a small raise over what STL is offering or the same offer but a deal that takes them right to UFA.

They offer Neighbours a 7 million x8 deal, we offer a 7 million x5 deal.

They offer a lower level RFA 800k, we offer them 900K.

 

[Fourier]

I meant a broader trend of young players utilizing all system means to pick their destination versus passively accepting. More my frustration broadly of a team like Winnipeg dealing with a top prospect who won't sign because putting on the uniform 'didn't feel right.' Gauthier not signing in Philadelphia. The out migration in Calgary with players like Hanifan, Tkachuk, Fox. It's hard enough for fringe markets to attract and retain talent. Lindros once bucked the system and was vilified through his career.

The Broberg Holloway situation is interesting because it is two young pedigree talents choosing opportunity and setting financial security over a winning environment. Opposite of seeing veterans carve off some salary with their financial security established to chase a Cup. Offer sheets are an inflationary tool so it won't become common place especially after the Oilers precedent setting situation for a meagre return. So yes agree teams likely won't get caught again. Won't be weaponized for fringe players.

Not signing to choose where you play is a different thing though. It generally does not impact salary decisions for prospects. The Calgary three are all American. Americans wanting to leave has been a thing for years.

GM's in the past have been fairly ruthless with respect to contract demands for players coming off ELC's. I think that it will take more than this one OS to change that since the consequences could be significant if role players start getting that much more of the pot. But I admit that it is possible that we might see a little nervousness in the next few years while the cap works its way back to normal.

One aspect that tends to be overlooked is that getting too much too early can actually backfire on a player. We saw this with Yamamoto and JP. McLeod was moved because of this as well. And around the league the number of guys not getting qualified has been pretty startling. So as much as it may seem that young player could get an upper hand they may well find that the advantage is short lived.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Not signing to choose where you play is a different thing though. It generally does not impact salary decisions for prospects. The Calgary three are all American. Americans wanting to leave has been a thing for years.

GM's in the past have been fairly ruthless with respect to contract demands for players coming off ELC's. I think that it will take more than this one OS to change that since the consequences could be significant if role players start getting that much more of the pot. But I admit that it is possible that we might see a little nervousness in the next few years while the cap works its way back to normal.

One aspect that tends to be overlooked is that getting too much too early can actually backfire on a player. We saw this with Yamamoto and JP. McLeod was moved because of this as well. And around the league the number of guys not getting qualified has been pretty startling. So as much as it may seem that young player could get an upper hand they may well find that the advantage is short lived.

Yes, I see your distinctions and realize I am lumping alot of situations into my idle musing. The American card aside it was strange to see Gauthier pull that card on Philadelphia, a city that hasn't had problem attracting or retaining talent. A rebuild situation ideal for young players.

Agree, ELC's have always been a hard salary break for owners. McLeod was squeezed under a covid flat cap to a sub million contract. Reset with his last deal. The market is changing and will continue to do so if cash infusion grows as anticipated each year. Managers are pivoting as you point out to hard decisions on support players like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi. Elites are going to get paid. Largely interchangeable support players quite likely to get squeezed out with hard budget decisions.

There's a good post of Jeremy Swayman in the Rumours thread talking about his contract situation. Eyes wide open to the business and his situation within it to essentially not settle for less than his value for himself and other players. A modern athlete's sophisticated take. Likely not coincidental too with strong NHLPA leadership and a CBA negotiation on the horizon.

Anyhew, I've veered this thread off course. Appreciate your insights.